MLB Best Bets Today March 29
Day Two of the MLB season got a little more entertaining thanks to the rainouts in Queens and Philadelphia, as we should have gone from 15 games down to eight, but we’ll have 10 on the card now for Friday as a result. For now, anyway, as rain threatens the games in Oakland and Los Angeles.
I’ll be leaving in a lot of what I wrote in yesterday’s introduction for the next few days, just so everybody can have an idea of what to expect with this article moving forward.
Top MLB Resources:
I’ll be writing my MLB best bets today article Monday-Saturday over the course of the season, but those that have read it in the past will notice a few wrinkles.
I will only be writing up games I have picks on. In the past, I would share information about other games and pitchers on my radar, but I’ll just be filing those things away in my own mind in hopes of finding bets down the line.
Also, I will be incorporating more props into my MLB article this season, rather than just sides, totals, and run lines. Pitcher strikeout props, outs props, and other things that are widely available in the legal U.S. markets will be included.
The VSiN Daily Baseball Bets podcast is gone (RIP), but I will be co-hosting the Double Play Baseball Podcast for DraftKings with Dustin Swedelson. That will be less of a betting podcast and more of a general baseball podcast, but we will sprinkle in a little bit of handicapping content.
The season-long tracking sheet can be found here. Typically, this article will come out around 9-10 a.m. PT, but I’ll try to get it out quicker on days with a lot of day games.
Lines will be from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate at time of publish. In the interest of transparency and a lack of confusion, I will cite lines from the “Game” tab, which, unfortunately, means “Action” regardless of who starts. When possible, always select the “Listed Pitcher” odds where both pitchers must start, especially if there is no significant price difference. The game I handicapped and the game you handicapped is with the two listed, probable pitchers. In the era of openers and late scratches, pitching changes will happen and odds will change. Protect yourself the best you can.
Finally, SHOP AROUND. Have multiple sportsbooks to choose from so you can get the best line possible. My lines in the article are from DraftKings because they own VSiN, not because they have the best odds on that game. It is your responsibility to get the best line that you can.
Check out all my preseason content, including previews for all 30 teams and baseball betting tips, right here.
MLB Odds | MLB Betting Splits | MLB Matchups
Here are the MLB best bets today for March 29:
New York Yankees at Houston Astros (-120, 9)
8:10 p.m. ET
Carlos Rodon and Cristian Javier are both in similar spots this season, in that they are both looking to bounce back from disappointing campaigns. For Rodon, it was injury-related, as he was limited to just 64.1 innings in the first year of his six-year, $162 million deal with the Yankees. For Javier, it was about a lack of velocity and a little bit of a loss of confidence.
Two guys looking to get off on the right foot now meet on the second day of the season. Rodon draws a tougher assignment here in my opinion, as the Astros are set up to hit lefties really well throughout the course of the season. They finished third in the league last season in wRC+ against southpaws at 122 and also had the lowest K% in that split.
The strikeout avoidance is a big deal to me here because I don’t know that we get the same from the Yankees against Javier. They added Juan Soto and he’ll be a huge help, but New York had the eighth-highest K% against RHP last season at 24.2%. That includes Aaron Judge at 28.4%, Anthony Volpe at 28.3%, Anthony Rizzo at 25.7%, Giancarlo Stanton at 32.6%. New York’s 89 wRC+ against RHP ranked 24th last season.
And while I do expect some gains from the Bronx Bombers vs. RHP, Javier is a guy that I’m expecting a bounce back from, as the Astros are as good as any organization at figuring those things out.
Maybe Rodon will stay healthy and put it all together, but anytime I can get Houston at a reasonable price against a southpaw, I’m interested.
Pick: Astros -120
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres (-155, 7.5)
9:40 p.m. ET
It was a slow start at Petco Park on Thursday, but the offenses simultaneously got it going in the seventh inning, but the Padres scored four and the Giants scored two, as San Diego picked up a 6-4 victory. The Padres had to be prepared to swing the bats against Logan Webb, who is extremely stingy with walks. That won’t be the case on Friday, as they take on Kyle Harrison.
Harrison had 35 strikeouts in 34.2 innings last season against 11 walks, but I really don’t feel like his low walk rate is sustainable this early in his career. In the minor leagues, Harrison issued 149 walks out of 1,208 batters faced for a 12.3% BB%. He also had 452 strikeouts, for a very solid 37.4% K%, as he racked up the punchies over 279.1 innings of work.
The thing about a lot of strikeouts and walks is that they limit your ability to work deep into a game and that’s especially true about pitching this early in the season. Harrison struck out 17, walked eight, and hit three batters in Spring Training. He got 15 outs in his March 18 start against the Reds, but only 11 outs against the Diamondbacks in his final tune-up, as he struck out six and walked four.
The Padres will undoubtedly miss Juan Soto’s tremendous plate discipline, but they still have some pretty patient guys like Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar, along with guys that have had higher walk rates than they posted last season like Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado.
I’m not worried about the first start for Musgrove. He warmed up and then sat around for a long time while his offense gave him a five-run head start. He sat around a long time again in the third inning while his team tacked on three more. It was just a weird game all around, let alone the fact that it was played in South Korea.
Also, the Giants are not the Dodgers offensively. Two of the runs Musgrove allowed were inherited runners that Tom Cosgrove let score. I would expect him to be better here, especially back at Petco Park.
Musgrove finished last season with a 3.05 ERA and a 3.52 FIP on the heels of a 2.93 ERA and a 3.59 FIP in his 2022 campaign. He also has a 2.93 ERA with a .224/.285/.370 slash and a .287 wOBA allowed in three seasons worth of starts at Petco since becoming a Padre.
To find this at DraftKings, go to the Innings tab or look at the additional betting options for Giants/Padres and then the Innings tab. It is under “Run Line – 1st 5 Innings”.
Pick: Padres 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-105)
