MLB Best Bets Today May 3
The MLB slate is full for Friday, as all 30 teams will be in action with a 5-5-5 format, so we’ve got five games in the NL, five in the AL, and five on the interleague schedule. The lone day game is at Wrigley Field and features a bit of a breeze blowing in. Otherwise, all the other games start at 6:10 p.m. ET or later.
Rain is possible in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland and you’ll want to make sure you’re checking daily forecasts, not only for wind and temperature, but also rain as there is a lot of moisture in the air at this time of the year. Rain delays can take starters out early and that hijacks the handicap.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 3:
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-175, 7.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
The Giants stayed on the East Coast and made the short trek from Boston to Philadelphia for the start of this weekend set at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, meanwhile, just wrapped up a 10-game road trip with stops in Cincinnati and California. They played very well on that trip, so kudos to them. But, this is a bit of an old-school handicap with fading a team in their first game back at home. Guys have kids and families and other responsibilities and whatnot, as opposed to spending some time with the boys kicking it in San Diego and Anaheim.
So, I think there is a little bit of that element to this game, as the Giants had a short trip, and, while they didn’t have an off day, they won yesterday and didn’t overextend the bullpen badly.
Aside from the unquantifiable side of the handicap, I just think this price has gotten too high. Jordan Hicks has been insanely good this season with a 1.59 ERA and a 3.08 FIP. He’s inducing a ground ball nearly 60% of the time and has held the opposition to a 34.4% Hard Hit%. He’s got a 10.2% SwStr% and just had back-to-back double-digit games by SwStr% against the Diamondbacks and Pirates. He got tons of swings and misses in the zone in those two outings, so the stuff is in peak form.
Hicks is seventh in Stuff+, the Eno Sarris and Max Bay pitching metric that you can find at Statcast. Aaron Nola is 37th with basically a league average Stuff+ rating. He comes in with a 3.20 ERA, but a 4.46 FIP, as he’s had his usual home run problem with seven of those in 39.1 innings and a 17.9% HR/FB%.
Nola’s fastball velo is down significantly this season and so is his SwStr%. In fact, he’s in single digits for the first time since 2016. Some of his expected metrics show negative regression in the profile.
With the way that Hicks has pitched, and an extra day of rest off of a little side tightness that he said was no big deal, I think the Giants are a live underdog here. They should be in the game and it could come down to the bullpens, where there’s a gap, but I don’t think it’s a huge one.
Pick: Giants +145
New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays (-148, 8)
6:50 p.m. ET
While it won’t be a Yankees-level crowd at Tropicana Field, the visitors should have some support from the retirees and lingering snowbirds as the Mets head to Tampa to open up a three-game weekend set. It will be Jose Quintana for the visitors and Aaron Civale for the home team.
Quintana comes in with a 3.48 ERA and a 4.27 FIP over 33.2 innings of work. He’s allowed more than three runs just once in his six starts. I will admit that there are a lot of areas ripe for regression with Quintana, so there is some risk attached to this play. He has a 23/15 K/BB ratio and a 43.4% Hard Hit%, so this isn’t typically the type of profile I’d bet on.
But, I’ll give Quintana credit for a few things. He’s only allowed three barrels in his last four starts. He’s running a solid 46.2% GB%. He’s working ahead in the count a lot with a 68.1% F-Strike%, so I think the BB% will be coming down as we go forward. He also draws a Rays lineup that ranks 23rd with an 86 wRC+ against lefties and 25th in wOBA at .282.
Tampa is just so banged up right now and the offense has been so rough to watch that I’m not sure they’ll be the offense to deal the potentially impending regression that Quintana has coming.
Civale is back home at the Trop and maybe that’ll be the elixir that he needs, but he’d allowed 11 runs on 16 hits in his last nine innings of work. He had his lowest average fastball velo last time out at 91 mph and he’s just not locating very well right now. A lot of his underlying metrics are pretty favorable, but he has struggled against some bad offenses lately with the White Sox and the Angels twice.
If nothing else, I could see the starters canceling out here and that would give the Mets the advantage because their bullpen has been significantly better than Tampa’s. New York leads the league in bullpen fWAR and ranks fifth in ERA and second in FIP. The Rays, meanwhile, have the worst bullpen in baseball by fWAR, ERA, and FIP.
As a result, I think the Mets are worth a shot. They have the better offense overall and the better offense in this split. They also have a big edge late in a close game. At plus money, that feels worth the gamble to me. Shop around, as DK’s line spread creates less value on taking underdogs in situations like this. You can find a few cents better elsewhere.
Pick: Mets +124
San Diego Padres (-112, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 p.m. ET
The games in the Senior Circuit and the Junior Circuit are very right-handed-heavy, as only one of the 10 starters in the intraleague games is a lefty (Martin Perez). Two righties are on tap here, as Dylan Cease and Slade Cecconi will start for their respective teams.
We know that Cease is pretty good, but let’s talk about Cecconi for a minute. Cecconi and the Snakes have made some substantive changes to his arsenal for this season. For starters, he’s throwing a changeup nearly 19% of the time, a pitch that opposing hitters own a .143 BA and a .357 SLG on over 12 batted ball events. It has been his neutralizing pitch for the platoon split, as he has exclusively used it against lefties. Lefties had a .472 SLG against him in 56 PA at the MLB level last season and a .506 SLG overall between the two levels. Lefties hit 16 HR off of him between Triple-A and MLB last season.
So, he’s added the changeup to attack lefties and has leveraged his slider almost exclusively against righties. That was a plus pitch for him at both levels, including a 36% Whiff% at the MLB level in 113 pitches. But, the biggest change I see from Cecconi is the horizontal movement on his fastball.
Cecconi’s fastball last season had 12.8 inches of break, which ranked 68% above league average. This season, he has 15.4 inches of break, which ranks 94% above league average. What horizontal movement does is allow the pitch to slide off the barrel and induce weak contact, which Cecconi has done with a 30% Hard Hit% in two outings (Mariners, Giants). This will be his stiffest test of the season to date, but I love these changes.
Cease had a major hiccup last week against the Phillies, as he allowed five earned runs on six hits in six innings. He had allowed a total of six earned runs in his previous five starts. It was just one of those days. Cease did allow three barrels and has now allowed 11 in his last five starts, which is a little concerning, but he allowed just a 31.6% Hard Hit% overall in that outing. He has a 34.1% Hard Hit% for the season in 85 batted ball events.
Arizona has struggled against righties this season, as they rank 25th in wRC+ at 87. That puts him 13% below league average in that split.
The choices here at the 1st 5 Under 4.5 at +100 or the full-game Under 9 at -115. Both bullpens are well-rested with a day off for both teams yesterday. San Diego’s primary relievers have largely been good, but Arizona’s largely have not. Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson have been good, but Joe Mantiply, Scott McGough, Bryce Jarvis, and Kyle Nelson have all had their hiccups.
I’ll go with the 1st 5 Under 4.5, especially because the main tenet of the handicap is my belief in Cecconi and his changes.
Pick: Padres/Diamondbacks 1st 5 Under 4.5 (+105)
