MLB Best Bets Today May 31
All 30 teams will take the field here on Friday, as we only have four games in each league, but seven interleague matchups spread across the country. It is the start of what should be a fun weekend of baseball and one that features a lot of fascinating pairings. We’re more than two months into the season now as well, so sample sizes are reaching points of significance and we have a lot to go on.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 31:
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros (-118, 8)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Twins and Astros fire up a weekend set at The Juice Box with Pablo Lopez and Ronel Blanco to kick things off. Lopez has been riding the struggle bus to work over his last three starts, as he’s allowed 16 runs on 25 hits over 16 innings of work. He’s only struck out 14. He does only have the two walks, but his command profile has been lacking with eight Barrels allowed in that span.
Those eight Barrels account for more than half (15) of the ones that Lopez has allowed. He is an extremely talented pitcher and can obviously turn it around in one start, but that is a lot of mistake pitches for a guy who has had SwStr% of 7.3%, 10.8%, and 6.5% in that span. The Astros make a ton of contact as it is, but if Lopez is going to struggle to generate whiffs, those Barrels and the associated hard contact could be a real problem.
Even though he’s had a lot of success with his fastball this season, he’s been mixing his other pitches in a lot more here in May to his detriment. The Astros rank third in Fastball Pitch Type Run Value per Statcast this season, so I don’t think this is the start to do it, but I think this is a tough matchup for him.
Houston ranks sixth in wRC+ against righties this month at 112. Meanwhile, the Twins rank 17th at 97 and draw a righty of their own in Blanco, who does have some negative regression signs, but he’s running a 1.99 ERA with a 3.95 FIP. He has a .200 BABIP against and a 92.4% LOB%, so I’ll be looking for some spots to fade him going forward, but I don’t think this is one of them.
Fly ball guys like Blanco tend to fare well pitching in Houston, so it’s no surprise that he has a .228 wOBA against in 24 innings this season. He also has a 22/8 K/BB ratio at home compared to 29/14 on the road in 30.1 innings. Minnesota leads the league in Fastball Pitch Type Run Value, but Blanco throws over 60% changeups and sliders. The Twins are 17th in Slider Pitch Type Run Value and 19th in Changeup Pitch Type Run Value.
Both bullpens are on pretty equal footing from a rest standpoint here, but I like the Astros to have the lead to protect.
Pick: Astros -118
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers (-166, 8)
8:10 p.m. ET
This is a little bit of a different handicap for me and definitely a riskier position to take, but bear with me as I break this one down. The White Sox and Brewers fire up a weekend set here, as Milwaukee just took three out of four from division rival Chicago. The Brewers now lead by five games in the NL Central over the suddenly-surging Cardinals, but they dealt a nice blow to the Cubs to push them into third place.
Like most teams, Milwaukee has been pushed pretty hard this month. They had an off day on May 23 and one on May 16. Their last off day prior to that was May 2. This is a team that doesn’t get a whole lot of length from the starting pitchers and a team that has played at a high level for a while.
Now they face a White Sox team that has lost 12 of 13, but has gotten some good work from Erick Fedde. We’ve seen good teams catch a bad series throughout the month of May for a variety of factors. Hell, the Rockies have won back-to-back series over the Phillies and Guardians. It’s just hard to stay sharp and locked in all of the time.
Fedde comes in with a 2.80 ERA and a 3.87 FIP. He has only allowed three home runs in his last eight starts and has a strong 58/18 K/BB ratio. His Hard Hit% is just 35.9% and his Barrel% is just 7.6%. I like what I’ve seen from him and he’ll have the support of a bullpen that had yesterday off.
With Tobias Myers, the Brewers are unlikely to get a lot of length, but I do think this is the type of spot where manager Pat Murphy will try and push as much out of him as he can get. Myers worked 4.1 innings five days ago and threw 64 pitches. That was on the heels of one inning in relief on May 21 and a four-inning start on May 9. His workload has been very inconsistent, so there’s definitely a chance that he isn’t sharp here.
Milwaukee has the third-most relief innings this month, trailing San Francisco and Oakland. Closer Trevor Megill threw three pitches on Tuesday and was unavailable the last two days. Bryan Hudson, Elvis Peguero, and Joel Payamps all threw yesterday. Every Brewers reliever has worked at least three times since Saturday and some have had extended appearances.
I just feel like this could be a flat spot for Milwaukee coming off of the Cubs series and with the lowly White Sox in town. Add in what should be a competitive start from Fedde and I think the White Sox are live tonight.
Pick: White Sox +140
