MLB Best Bets Today May 9

We’re back to normal in Major League Baseball, as all 30 teams take the field and we’ve got 15 night games as the weekend gets underway. It is another 5-5-5 split with five games in each league and five interleague matchups to think about. One interesting twist for this weekend is that the only interdivision matchups are from the NL West, where the Padres play the Rockies and the Dodgers continue their series with the Diamondbacks. Otherwise, no division foes square off.

We’re getting very close to the 40-game mark, which is about when a lot of people start to make some determinations about how the rest of the season will go and start really weighing this season’s numbers a lot more heavily. Of today’s starting pitchers, 24 of them are making their eighth start of the season, so 25% or more of the workload they’ll have this season. That’s a big chunk and definitely big enough for some conclusions to emerge.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 9:

Milwaukee Brewers (-122, 9.5) at Tampa Bay Rays

7:05 p.m. ET

After splitting a six-game homestand, the Brewers are back out on the MLB highway to take on the Rays. The Rays had a chance to salvage a game against the Phillies last night, but blew the save and lost in 10 innings. They’re back at the ballpark tonight in hopes of a better showing against Milwaukee.

Jose Quintana gets the call here for the Brewers. He’s made five starts and allowed nine runs on 26 hits over 28.2 innings of work with a 21/9 K/BB ratio. He just gave up three homers and six runs on seven hits in his last start, as a boatload of regression signs finally came to the forefront. He has a 2.83 ERA but a 4.22 xERA, 4.40 FIP, and a 4.20 xFIP. Prior to that last start, he had a 1.14 ERA with a 3.40 FIP and a 4.34 xFIP while running a 93.8% LOB% with a 16.1% K%.

The Rays are also a pretty big candidate for regression to the mean against lefties. They have a .197 BA with a .235 xBA, a .287 SLG with a .338 SLG, and a .262 wOBA with a .297 xwOBA. More regression is still in the profile for Quintana, who has allowed a 43% Hard Hit% and a 9.3% Barrel% on the season. He doesn’t miss bats and this is a tough park for guys with that problem.

Just ask Zack Littell, who has allowed 21 runs on 37 hits for a 4.61 ERA. He has a 5.64 FIP and is still running a 77.4% LOB%, so things could be going even worse for him. That being said, he allowed 12 runs in a two-start stretch on April 4 and April 10 and has allowed eight runs over his last four starts, including road outings against the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Yankees.

Littell has been using his splitter a lot more often lately – a pitch that has yielded a .205 BA with a .250 SLG in 32 batted balls and accounts for 12 of his strikeouts. His slider has been pummeled this season, which is a big problem since it is his most-utilized pitch at 35.6%, but the splitter usage is on the upswing and he has the chance at a good matchup here. The Brewers are the worst offense in baseball against sliders per Statcast’s Batting Runs Value at -10.6. The next lowest team, Washington, is at -7.3.

Some arsenal changes should help Littell and I think Quintana’s regression signs overpower the concerns that are present with Littell. However, I am only playing the 1st 5 here, as every important Rays reliever has worked back-to-back days, so I don’t know how Kevin Cash gets outs late in the game if he needs them.

Pick: Rays 1st 5 (-110)

Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 8) at Cleveland Guardians

7:10 p.m. ET

Interleague action in The Land between the Phillies and Guardians begins with an Aaron Nola vs. Gavin Williams matchup. Both pitchers have had inconsistent command throughout the season and there were a lot of different betting options that I examined in this game. Here are a couple of them:

Williams has allowed seven hits in three straight starts, and that’s even with racking up 19 strikeouts over 12.1 innings of work. He’s also walked nine batters, so it’s been quite a feat to give up that many hits given that he’s faced 63 batters in that span and 28 either struck out or walked. But, that’s an example of how poor his command has been this season. He has a 5.06 ERA with a 5.01 FIP, and while his xFIP suggests better fortunes are coming, his 43.3% Hard Hit% and 11.1% Barrel% make it very hard to believe that.

The Phillies are swinging it very well right now, as they have a .345 wOBA and a 119 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Their K% is down to 18.1% in that span and their BB% is just 7.4%, so they are putting a lot of balls in play. They’re batting .273 in that stretch, which ranks eighth. If Williams can’t get strikeouts, he’s likely to allow hard contact somewhere. The Phillies are also second in Hard Hit% in that span at 47.1%.

So Gavin Williams Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120) is the first angle I took in this game.

The other thing I really like is this matchup for Steven Kwan. His bat control is impeccable and he owns a .336/.403/.495 slash against righties this season. Nola has allowed five of his six home runs to lefties, which I’ll get to in a second. Nola’s best attribute as a pitcher is changing eye levels with high fastballs and then his big knuckle curve. Kwan loves to inside-out pitches up in the zone to left or left center and has the hands to wait back on the slow stuff. 

He’s batting .382 with a .605 SLG on fastballs, but .279 with a .302 SLG on breaking balls and .286 with a .321 SLG on offspeed pitches. So, he knows when to pick his spots to look to drive the baseball. Nola is a five-pitch guy, with a four-seam and sinker, the curve and change, and then a cutter that he’s actually increased the usage of in his last two starts and has found some success.

I like Kwan Over 0.5 Runs at +120, since I think he will get on base and have a good chance to score with four lefties in Daniel Schneemann, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo, and Carlos Santana behind him. I also think it’s worth a small investment on Kwan to hit a HR at +1200. Like I said, he picks his spots very effectively and Nola can be homer-prone. Kwan has only struck out nine times in 119 PA against righties this season. I’ll go with .25 units at +1200, so we’re essentially looking at a 3-unit return if he hits one out.

A Kwan stolen base at +650 is also interesting to me, as the Guardians have gotten a little bit more aggressive on the bases recently with 16 stolen base attempts (12 successful) in the last 14 days. Kwan has not been caught in five attempts thus far and is an 81.4% guy for his career (57/70). A half-unit there returns 3.25 units, so that’s another investment I like. I think Cleveland wants to put the pressure on at home and should have a spark after a desperately-needed day off yesterday.

Picks: Gavin Williams (CLE) Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-120); full unit on Steven Kwan (CLE) Over 0.5 Runs (+120), .25 units on Kwan to Hit a HR (+1200), .5 units on Kwan To Steal A Base (+650)

San Francisco Giants (-112, 9) at Minnesota Twins

8:10 p.m. ET

The Giants and Twins fire up an interleague set with both teams on a heater. The Twins just swept the Orioles and have ripped off five in a row, while the Giants come in off a nice series win against the Cubs and they’ve won five of six. San Francisco had the benefit of an off day yesterday, which is part of my handicap here in this one.

Jordan Hicks gets the call for the Giants in this one and there are a lot of positive regression signs in his profile. He has gotten tremendously unlucky thus far with a 6.03 ERA, 3.52 xERA, and a 3.43 FIP. He’s running a 57.2% LOB%, so he hasn’t had a whole lot of good fortune in higher-leverage opportunities. The .333 BABIP doesn’t help – and that could continue to be a thing as an extreme ground ball guy, but I think there’s some room for improvement there as well.

Hicks has allowed a .449 BABIP with men on base and a .435 BABIP with men in scoring position. Among starting pitchers, his BABIP is the ninth-highest in the RISP split and seventh-highest with men on base. I don’t think he will continue to run that bad in that metric. 

I’m not a Chris Paddack guy, as the Minnesota right-hander comes in with a 5.57 ERA, 5.01 xERA and a 5.52 FIP. He’s got a 16.6% K% with an 11% BB% and hasn’t given the Twins a whole lot of meaningful innings. His .263 BABIP is a regression candidate, as he’s allowed a 43.8% Hard Hit% and a 10.5% Barrel%. Home runs don’t count towards BABIP, as they are not balls in play and those account for six of the 32 hits he has allowed.

The Giants have had some swing-and-miss issues this season, but Paddack only has an 8.7% SwStr% and two of his three starts in double digits came against the White Sox.

The other thing here is the workload of the Twins bullpen. Winning games is important, but winning by margin to give the bullpen a blow is also important. Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran have each worked back-to-back days and four of the last six. Louis Varland and Danny Coulombe would be working a third time in four days and so would Cole Sands, who pitched yesterday.

The Giants used their primary guys on Tuesday and Wednesday, but at least they had a breather yesterday. San Francisco is also third in bullpen ERA and sixth in FIP. The Twins are fifth in FIP, so these are two good pens, but with the prospects of Jax and Duran working three straight days, I give the edge to San Francisco.

Pick: Giants -112