MLB Best Bets Today September 19:
The penultimate weekend of the MLB regular season is here, as we have this weekend and next weekend before the playoffs begin on October 1. Six games in each league and three interleague games are on the docket for today, tomorrow, and Sunday, weather permitting, as teams look to better their playoff standing or play out the string.
Only one day game is on the schedule, as the return of Trevor Williams comes this afternoon for the Nationals at Wrigley Field against the Cubs. Otherwise, we’ve got 14 night games to ponder.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 20:
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-122, 7)
8:05 p.m. ET
We have a pretty low-scoring expectation for this one between George Kirby and Jacob deGrom, as the Mariners and Rangers battle in Arlington. Both Kirby and deGrom faced these respective lineups last time out, so we’ll see what this game has in store for the two hurlers.
Over his last eight starts, Kirby has allowed three or more runs in five of them. He has a 5.44 ERA with a 5.36 FIP in that span. He just fired seven shutout innings against Texas, but that start did come at home. Now he’s in Arlington and his road numbers are not the same as his home numbers.
Kirby has allowed 17 of his 22 homers on the road and has allowed a .461 SLG compared to a .327 SLG at home. He’s given up 44 earned runs on the road and 28 ER at home over 96.2 and 82.1 innings, respectively. He’s allowed a .274 BA in the second half after allowing a .232 BA in the first half and his SLG in the second half is over 100 points higher.
He allowed 11 HR in 117.2 innings in the first half and has given up 11 HR in 61.1 innings in the second half. He’s also a guy that works deep into games because of his pitch efficiency with a lot of strikes and limited balls. I’d expect him to be turning the Rangers lineup over here and he’s allowed a .286/.305/.476 slash in 174 PA the third time through.
deGrom is likely to get stretched out a little bit more here after throwing 61 pitches in his first start. He did throw 3.2 scoreless innings in Seattle, but he allowed an average exit velo of 94.4 mph on 11 batted balls and posted a Hard Hit% of 63.6%. The Mariners were unable to capitalize by scoring runs, but deGrom did leave with runners on second and third, so Bruce Bochy pulled him at the right time.
A total of 7 just leaves so little margin for error, especially with Texas’s bullpen likely to have a heavy workload in this one. Texas has a 4.69 bullpen ERA over the last 30 days with a 4.59 FIP. I think we have a good chance at getting Over 7 runs here.
Pick: Mariners/Rangers Over 7 (-112)
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-270, 8)
8:10 p.m. ET
The biggest favorite on the board has a great chance at moving closer to locking down a playoff spot and a division title. The Astros host the Angels, who have gone 15-30 over the last 45 games. It will be Tyler Anderson for the Halos and Justin Verlander for the ‘Stros.
I’m looking at an Anderson prop tonight and it is Under 16.5 Outs Recorded. This is a number Anderson has stayed under in each of his last four starts, including his last start, which came against the Astros at home. He allowed four runs on seven hits over five innings with four strikeouts and three walks.
Over his last six starts, Anderson has a 6.46 ERA with a 5.39 FIP in 30.2 innings of work. He is under contract for next season with LA and he’s thrown 31.1 more innings this season than he threw last season, so I do think that they’ll keep an eye on him here the rest of the season. His career-high in innings pitched is 178.2, which came back in 2022. He’s at 172.1 for this season.
Surprisingly, Anderson has been dramatically better on the road than he has been at home this season, which is a rare case with a guy who calls a good pitcher’s park home. Nevertheless, he’s been under this number in four straight starts, is facing a team for the second straight time, and a team that ranks sixth in wOBA at .326 against lefties over the last 30 days with a 115 wRC+.
Pick: Tyler Anderson Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
