MLB Best Bets Today September 27:
The final weekend of the MLB regular season has arrived. The only drama is in the NL, where the Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves are all in pursuit of the last Wild Card spot. Otherwise, everything is pretty much set except for seeding. The Twins are three games out with three games to play, so the Royals and/or Tigers have a great chance at clinching tonight, especially the Tigers, who play the White Sox at home.
The Braves will need Truist Park to dry out after upwards of eight inches of rain fell in Atlanta. Despite the weather, the Royals, who played a day game yesterday, were able to get in around 9 p.m., so they were able to get settled for today’s matchup. On the weather front, we also have an extreme wind game in Chicago, hence the 6.5 total between the Reds and Cubs in today’s matinee. Astros/Guardians has some extreme wind, at least for Cleveland, and could be a rainout situation. Detroit has some extreme wind as well. Nationals/Phillies looks threatened by rain. It’s a big day for Mother Nature.
Top MLB Resources:
This weekend is really tough for handicapping. Playoff contenders may give guys a rest or cut starts short. Bad teams are wild cards, and not the playoff kind. Tread lightly.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 27:
Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians (-125, 8)
7:10 p.m. ET
It does not appear to be a pleasant night in Cleveland. Winds of 15-20 mph will be blowing in from right field and rain will be hanging around throughout the evening. Both teams have already clinched their respective divisions and are just worried about getting things set up for the postseason.
In Cleveland’s case, that means sending out Joey Cantillo, who was supposed to get Wednesday’s start but got bumped back for a bullpen game. Because the Guardians have a chance at facing the Astros, they are not using any of their postseason starters in this series. Cantillo goes tonight, Ben Lively goes tomorrow, and Gavin Williams goes behind an opener on Sunday. Individual guys are worried about getting stats and benchmarks, but Cleveland is worried about keeping guys healthy and fresh for the playoffs.
Cantillo has been great lately, though I do admit that this is a step up in class. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed three runs (two earned) on just eight hits in 16.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 22 and walked four against the White Sox, Rays, and Twins. I still don’t know how engaged the Astros will actually be, as they are locked into the No. 3 seed and will play at home on Tuesday.
These conditions seem pretty good for Ronel Blanco. He’s a fly ball guy who has outpitched his advanced metrics this season. He has a 2.88 ERA with a 4.18 FIP in 162.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 163, so he is a K per inning guy. He has a 36% Hard Hit%, but a 9.3% Barrel%. The wind conditions should help the Barrel% here, as well-struck balls may not travel well, especially to RF, which is the better power side in Cleveland.
Both bullpens are healthy and rested after Thursday off days. I think this weekend is a matchup of two teams going through the motions.
Pick: Astros/Guardians Under 8 (-118)
