MLB Best Bets Today August 11

A new week begins on the diamond with 11 games on August 11. Sixteen teams participate in intraleague contests, while six of them play interleague games. We have a few division matchups and Boston’s brutal schedule continues on with the Astros in Alex Bregman’s return to Houston. The Battle of Los Angeles is not only a great Rage Against The Machine album, but also what we have between the Dodgers and Angels.

Home teams are favored in eight of today’s 11 games and all of the NL action, so we’ll see if the dogs are barking or if the chalk holds up. One other observation before today’s games – the Rays have been taking a lot of sharp money overnight and early in the morning. They are 57-62, but have a 64-55 record by Pythagorean Win-Loss and 61-58 by BaseRuns. The Yankees are also a noteworthy underachiever per BaseRuns and -5 by Pyth W-L. Keep an eye on their lines as we go forward.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for August 11:

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (-207, 9)

7:40 p.m. ET

The Brewers have the opportunity to keep rolling right along early this week with the Pirates in town. Pittsburgh is 23 games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central standings as the teams come together, but the Buccos are 12-10 in the second half so far, so they’ve been hanging in there pretty well. They’re actually 39-42 under Don Kelly after firing Derek Shelton, who was 12-26 to start the season.

Anyway, my focus here is the Pittsburgh lineup and a fade of Jose Quintana. Over his last six starts, Quintana has barely been getting by. He has a 4.05 ERA, but a 5.24 FIP with seven homers allowed, a Hard Hit% of 49.9%, and a 14.4% Barrel%. He has just a 6.6% SwStr% in that span. He’s getting very fortunate to not get crushed in these outings.

While the Pirates are a step down from some of the lineups he’s faced in that span (LAD x2, NYM, MIA, WAS, ATL), the Pirates do have a 105 wRC+ in the month of August, including 11 homers. In 112 PA against lefties over the last two weeks, the Buccos have a .351 wOBA and a 127 wRC+.

Also, on the whole, Quintana has a 3.57 ERA with a 4.78 xERA and a 4.72 FIP in his 93.1 innings of work. There are a lot of regression signs in the profile.

So, I like the Pirates 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 Runs at -130 in this one. Milwaukee also has a good matchup against Heaney, but Over 4.5 at -135 for the 1st 5 Total is a little steep. 

Pick: Pirates 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-130)

Boston Red Sox (-175, 7.5) at Houston Astros

8:10 p.m. ET

There is a lot happening in Houston tonight. Alex Bregman returns for the first time since joining the Red Sox. Cristian Javier returns to the Astros rotation for his first start since May 21, 2024. This will be Carlos Correa’s home return after being acquired at the Trade Deadline. Garrett Crochet is on the bump for the Red Sox. Plenty of things happening, so it should be a fun one at Daikin Park.

I see a betting angle as well, with Javier and Under 4.5 Strikeouts at -135. This is chalky, but Javier had 15 strikeouts and 15 walks in the minors over five starts that covered just 14 innings of work. He made one start in the Complex League, one in Double-A, and three in Triple-A. While he did strike out six of 16 batters in his last rehab tune-up, the Red Sox are a tough lineup to come back and face. Boston has a 20.1% K% against RHP over the last 14 days and they’re also batting .262/.338/.453 in that span.

I’m not sure how deep Javier will actually work into this game to be able to get at least five strikeouts. Maybe he’s healthier now, but he only had an 18% K% in his seven starts in 2024 before hitting the IL. I don’t think he’s truly the high-strikeout guy that we saw early in his career.

Pick: Cristian Javier (HOU) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)

Tampa Bay Rays at Sacramento A’s (-113, 10)

10:05 p.m. ET

As mentioned above, there is a lot of Rays love in the marketplace these days. But, I don’t see a reason to support them here. This matchup features Ryan Pepiot and Jeffrey Springs, as Springs gets a crack against his former team.

Let’s start with Pepiot. This is a bad park for him. Most are, as he’s a fly ball guy with 24 homers allowed in 136 innings of work. He’s actually allowed 17 of his 24 homers at home this season, but another hot day in Sacramento probably isn’t an ideal spot for him. The A’s are scorching hot offensively right now with a .308/.366/.516 slash and a .376 wOBA in eight games this month. They are also second in wOBA at .359 in the second half, trailing only the Blue Jays.

Pepiot has a 3.77 ERA with a 3.96 xERA, but a 4.58 FIP and a lot of pull-side contact in the air. He also allowed a .342 wOBA with a .476 SLG in the month of July with a 5.03 ERA and a 5.93 FIP. He now has a new career-high in innings pitched and I do wonder if maybe there’s something to that as well.

The Rays have been quite terrible against lefties all season long. Over the last 14 days, specifically, they have a 30.5% K% against a 2.9% BB% in 174 PA with a .261 wOBA and a 65 wRC+. In the second half as a whole, they are 29th in wOBA at .287 with a .216/.287/.365 slash. Against lefties for the season, the Rays have a .287 wOBA that ranks 23rd.

Springs has a 3.89 ERA with a 4.02 xERA and a 4.61 FIP with a low K% and a bit of a home run problem, but he had a 6.04 ERA in the first month of the season. He has a 3.30 ERA with a 4.45 FIP in his last 16 starts and a couple relief outings, but if we narrow things down even more, he has allowed just four runs on seven hits over his last 18 innings.

Overall, the Rays are just 10-24 over their last 34 games, as they have really fallen off the pace quickly. That Pyth W-L is skewed because they’ve won 16 games by 5+ runs and have only lost nine in that manner. They just scored nine runs over a three-game sweep at the hands of the Mariners. This simply isn’t a very good baseball team.

Pick: A’s -113