MLB Best Bets Today July 1:
It is a lonely MLB card on Monday with only three games to think about. With the July 4 holiday falling on Thursday, we’ll have a loaded schedule for what is typically a travel day, so that’s why so many teams are getting a day off today. The Mets, Nationals, Brewers, Rockies, Astros, and Blue Jays are the only teams taking the field today.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 1:
Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
The pickings are obviously very slim on the MLB board for today, but I’ve got a pretty big regression candidate on the mound in Denver and that is something I need to see through. Bryse Wilson gets the start for the Brewers and the Rockies lineup should be able to find some success in this matchup.
Wilson comes in with a 3.89 ERA, 4.65 xERA, and a 4.89 FIP in his 74 innings of work. If we look at the Statcast metrics, his 4.65 xERA ranks in the 24th percentile, while his .266 xBA ranks in the 20th percentile and nearly all of his numbers rank below league average, except for his Barrel% against. He doesn’t get a lot of chases, doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts, doesn’t throw hard, and doesn’t have great extension.
He’s allowed a .310 wOBA, but has a .338 xwOBA against. His 45.2% Hard Hit% also ranks in the bottom 10%. At a place like Coors Field, where the ball carries better and the spacious outfield allows more balls to drop in, I think this is a good spot to expect a reversal of fortunes.
The other thing with Wilson is that I don’t like his location to begin with, but especially here. Look at his pitches and where he primarily throws them.
That’s a lot of middle-middle with the cutter and sinker. Pitches move less in Colorado because of the lack of resistance on the baseball. In other words, guys tend to be up in the zone more. As it is, Wilson isn’t locating his primary pitches all that well, but the lower vertical break due to the air density is likely to leave a lot of his stuff in the prime hitting areas, particularly with the cutter and sinker.
The Rockies are batting .265/.326/.431 at home with a .329 wOBA. Add in the negative regression signs for Wilson and I’m comfortable with laying a price on the 1st 5 Team Total Over prop.
Pick: Rockies 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-130)
