MLB Best Bets Today June 10

Seven games are on the Monday MLB card and there is not a single day game to be found. Interestingly enough, there is not a single NL game on the slate, as we have three AL games and four interleague games to consider. Three of the seven games feature favorites of -200 or better, so it is a bit of a thin card here to kick off a new week.

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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 10:

Baltimore Orioles (-142, 7.5) at Tampa Bay Rays

6:50 p.m. ET

The Orioles and Rays will complete a wraparound series here, as Baltimore looks for a four-game sweep. The O’s have won the first three games by a combined score of 20-5 and appear to have the upper hand again tonight with Corbin Burnes on the bump against Ryan Pepiot.

Over the last 30 days, the Orioles have a 126 wRC+ against righties, while the Rays have just a 79 wRC+. Baltimore ranks third in that department and Tampa Bay ranks 28th, so these two offenses have been wildly different over the course of the season and in the smaller sample size of the last month. Baltimore is hitting for a ton of power right now and they’ve hit 18 homers over the last seven days with a .552 SLG.

Tampa Bay continues to struggle badly on offense, so I think that’s a really big positive for the O’s today, especially with Burnes on the mound, as he comes in with a 2.26 ERA, 2.75 xERA, and a 3.18 FIP over his 79.2 innings of work. Burnes has allowed one or zero earned runs in four of his last five starts and does an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground with a 50% GB%.

Pepiot has a 3.96 ERA with a 3.42 FIP and a 2.88 xERA, so there are reasons to be optimistic about his future prospects, but I don’t love this matchup for him as an extreme fly ball guy with the way that Baltimore is swinging it right now. Pepiot has allowed three runs in three of his last four starts and is now stepping up in class against a better lineup. After an excellent start to the season, he’s been a bit inconsistent since returning from injury and this is not the lineup to be inconsistent against.

Baltimore’s primary relievers are rested and Burnes has been providing some nice length, so I’ll lay it today with the road O’s.

Pick: Orioles -142

New York Yankees (-130, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals

8:10 p.m. ET

The Yankees and Royals fire up a weekday set at Kauffman Stadium here, as it will be Carlos Rodon against Seth Lugo. New York just finished up a very emotional series with the Dodgers in the Bronx, one in which they were missing Juan Soto, whose forearm still remains cause for concern with no timetable of when he will play again. Replacement Trent Grisham was the hero on Sunday Night Baseball, as the Yankees took down the 6-4 win.

The Royals suffered a tough loss at the hands of the Mariners in 10 innings and needed six relievers, plus an extended appearance from closer James MacArthur, working a third time in four days. As a result, I’m not looking at the Royals for the full game, but I do like them for the 1st 5 in this one.

A letdown for New York seems reasonable after facing the Dodgers. It was a fun series with a lot on the line. A trip to KC seems a lot less appetizing, even though the Royals are one of this year’s biggest surprises. The Yankees got in after 2 a.m. local time with the late game against the Dodgers and could be a bit sluggish in this one.

It also helps that the Royals have been pummeling lefties this season. They have a 140 wRC+ over the last 30 days against southpaws, including a .320 BA that leads all of baseball in that span and a .502 SLG. They get one here in Rodon, who has some negative regression indicators with a 3.08 ERA, but a 4.23 FIP and a 4.24 xERA. His high fly ball rate coupled with a lot of hard contact are why the xERA is high and the difference between his ERA and FIP has to do with a .250 BABIP and an 84.8% LOB%.

Righties have been held to a .266 wOBA against Lugo this season and he’s pitched very well on the whole with a 2.13 ERA, 3.79 xERA, and a 3.48 FIP. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but he mixes his pitches and keeps hitters off-balance, so I do like those two things, especially given the context of the game.

Pick: Royals 1st 5 (-110)