MLB Best Bets Today May 19

Usually we get a 5-5-5 schedule in Major League Baseball, but we have a 4-4-4 schedule today, as there are four games in the NL, four in the AL, and four interleague matchups coming out of rivalry weekend. I was a bit surprised to only see six teams with the day off, especially since we’ll get a fuller slate next Monday on the Memorial Day holiday. But, that’s what we’ve got and everything is a night game here on May 19.

We’ve got quite a few streaks going on in MLB right now. In the AL, six of 15 teams have either won or lost 3+ games in a row, while we have eight teams that fit that criteria in the NL. One other striking thing is that there are only four teams in the AL with a .550 or better win percentage (89-win pace) and seven in NL, with three of them in the NL West. I guess we can call it parity, but there are a lot of very mediocre MLB teams this season.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 19:

Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (-142, 9)

7:05 p.m. ET

The Rays return home after splitting a six-game road trip with a series win in Toronto and a series loss back in the Sunshine State against the Marlins. The Astros leave the Lone Star State after taking two of three from the Rangers to make their first visit to George Steinbrenner Stadium. It will be a warm night in Tampa, with temps in the low 80s, the usual Florida humidity, and a little bit of a helping wind at first pitch.

I think that Ryan Pepiot has made some adjustments to his new digs, so I’m looking at a one-way handicap here and it is to examine Colton Gordon’s chances against the Rays lineup. This will be Gordon’s second start after allowing three runs on seven hits over 4.1 innings to the Royals last time out. One of the hits was a homer and he only had a 2.4% SwStr% and only one Whiff on a pitch in the strike zone. 

The 6-foot-4 lefty has a bit of a deceptive pitching motion, but lacks depth in his arsenal. He threw a ton of strikes against the Royals, but primarily only threw three pitches and 72% of them were four-seam fastballs or sweepers. He threw 22 combined sinkers/changeups/curveballs. Maybe the plan will be different against the Rays here, but Gordon is a guy who has mostly been a fly ball pitcher based on his average launch angle and GB% on his way to the bigs.

In his first start, he had 11 fly balls/line drives against six ground balls. He strikes me as a guy ripe to give up home runs at the MLB level. He’s a strike-thrower with subpar velocity and doesn’t have a whole lot of variation to his arsenal, at least as of now. On a warm night, in a park where fly balls and line drives will carry, I’m worried about him.

I like the Rays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 here. The Astros bullpen is very solid, so I don’t really want to tangle with that. Tampa has been really bad against lefties this season, which is worrisome, but also, there should be some regression to the mean in that department, especially with how they utilize platoons.

Pick: Rays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)

Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 9)

7:40 p.m. ET

A couple of teams attempting to navigate a lot of bad vibes battle in interleague action tonight, as the Orioles hit the road to take on the Brewers. It will be Dean Kremer and Quinn Priester in this one, as Baltimore looks to end a six-game losing streak. Milwaukee has lost seven of their last 10, but did salvage Sunday’s series finale against the Twins to end Minnesota’s elongated winning streak.

Baltimore isn’t the same type of media market as LA or NYC, but I can’t help but think it’s good for the team to get back out on the road. They fired manager Brandon Hyde during the homestand and got swept by the Beltway rival Nationals by a score of 24-13. All of the sudden, this is a very talented team with a 15-30 record. I do think there is a certain level of organizational dysfunction leaking over to the field, as it seems like a lot of critical things have been said and written about Mike Elias, payroll spending, and not addressing the starting rotation.

However, this is still an offense that ranks third in Hard Hit% and seventh in Barrel%. That group should be experiencing much better results. Baltimore has a .291 wOBA with a .322 xwOBA. They have a .388 SLG with a .426 xSLG. They have a .231 BA with a .248 xBA. This should be a much better offensive unit than it is and facing a subpar pitcher like Priester could be just what the doctor ordered.

Priester has made six starts and one relief appearance with a 4.59 ERA and a 5.16 FIP. He has 23 strikeouts against 21 walks in 33.1 innings, so the O’s should get into some advantageous counts here. Priester has done a good job of limiting hard contact, but he also has faced some lineups that struggle with that recently in the Astros and Guardians. Both are bottom five in Hard Hit%.

Kremer has not had a very good season either, as he has a 5.36 ERA with a 4.61 xERA and a 5.15 FIP, but he has generated a good number of chases this season and his 66% LOB% is a big culprit as to why his profile looks the way it does. His K% is down this season, but he’s in the zone a lot and that’s beneficial against the Brewers offense.

Speaking of the Brewers offense, they have only scored 39 runs in the month of May with a .184/.258/.278 slash and a .245 wOBA. Their 51 wRC+ is the worst in baseball. Meanwhile, the Orioles have just been snakebitten with RISP, as they’re actually batting .246/.304/.400 this month and have a 101 wRC+, but have only scored 49 runs in 15 games.

There are a lot of other quirky things for Baltimore that should normalize at some point. They’ve given up the highest OPS to 7-8-9 hitters at .824. That’s 12 points worse than anybody else. Bad pitchers or not, some bad hitters are getting fortunate against them. I don’t know if the off-field stuff is getting in the way, but I can’t see this team continuing to be this bad.

Pick: Orioles -105

Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (-135, 7.5)

9:45 p.m. ET

A couple of left-handers come together at Oracle Park for tonight’s top pitching matchup. It will be Kris Bubic and Robbie Ray in this one, as runs are expected to be at a premium by the bay.

Bubic has a 1.66 ERA with a 3.15 xERA and a 2.68 FIP, as he’s having the breakout season that a lot of people expected. While that ERA probably isn’t sustainable with an 86.5% LOB%, Bubic has a terrific K/BB ratio and only has a 5.6% HR/FB%. There is nothing fluky really outside of that, as Bubic ranks in the 68th percentile in Hard Hit%, 85th percentile in Chase%, 78th percentile in Whiff%, 73rd percentile in K%, and 70th percentile in BB%. While he has below average fastball velo, he also has well above average Extension, so the fastball sneaks up on guys. The Giants have very little experience against him, which I think is a helpful factor for the southpaw.

Ray is doing what he usually does. He’s in the 75th percentile in K% and 12th percentile in BB% and Hard Hit%. But, he always finds ways to battle through and generate whiffs with his assortment of pitches. While home runs are often a concern with him, the Royals have hit all of three home runs against left-handed pitching in 404 plate appearances this season. They rank 27th in wOBA and wRC+ and only have a .238/.298/.312 slash in this split.

The Royals are also a free-swinging team. Their 6.7% BB% against lefties is the third-lowest in the league (Angels, White Sox). The Giants like to swing a lot, too, at least against lefties, where they have just a .225/.288/.376 slash with a .293 wOBA. On the whole, the Giants have a 9.4% BB% and rank ninth in MLB, but against lefties, they are 26th in BB% at 7.3%.

Both bullpens are very solid and in good shape from a workload standpoint.

Pick: Royals/Giants Under 7.5 (-122)