MLB Best Bets Today October 14:
The ALCS gets underway and the NLCS continues as we’ll have two MLB playoff games here on Monday to kick off the work week. The Mets and Dodgers play first, as we’ll get a 1 p.m. local time start in Chavez Ravine and we’ll get a cool evening in the Bronx with a 7:37 p.m. ET first pitch at Yankee Stadium.
My Guardians vs. Yankees series preview is up and you should check that out as well.
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Let’s give both games a look and see if anything stands out.
SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 14:
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (-142, 8)
4:08 p.m. ET (FOX/FS1)
It will be opener Ryan Brasier in a bullpen game for the Dodgers, as the Mets counter with southpaw Sean Manaea, who has been their best and most consistent pitcher for a while now. The Dodgers could not have had it set up any better for a bullpen game, as they got seven innings out of Jack Flaherty in yesterday’s blowout victory. By winning 9-0, the Dodgers were able to limit the bullpen usage to Daniel Hudson and Ben Casparius. Hudson worked in low leverage three times in the Padres series, while that was Casparius’s first postseason appearance.
The Mets turned to David Peterson for 2.1 innings in hopes of keeping the game close and saving the bullpen. He did one because he failed to do the other, as he gave up three runs to push the Dodgers lead out to six. We’ll see Peterson later in the series in all likelihood, but he did save the pen, so the Mets can throw their best arms here if this one is close.
Manaea has allowed three runs on nine hits in two playoff starts over 12 innings with a 10/2 K/BB ratio. He allowed two runs on six hits in five innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card Round, which the Mets lost, and then one run over seven innings in Game 3 against the Phillies, which was the all-important swing game in the series. Manaea’s strong playoff effort has been a carryover of his excellent regular season, where he set a career-high in innings pitched with 181.2 and had a 3.47 ERA with a 3.75 xERA and a 3.83 FIP.
Most notably, he held opposing batters to a .185 batting average with a .262 wOBA in the second half. He also posted a 26% K% with a 6.8% BB%, a massive improvement from the 24% K% and 10% BB% in the first half. He was also much more effective with inducing pop ups, which are effectively strikeouts. If these trends hold, he’s easily New York’s best hope in this series when it comes to shutting down this elite lineup.
Brasier has appeared three times in the postseason and made the start in Game 4. He went 1.1 scoreless innings and eight relievers combined on a shutout. Landon Knack was among those relievers, but he pitched the lowest leverage inning of them all in the ninth, so I don’t know that he’s an option here.
Between yesterday’s great start from Flaherty and tomorrow’s off day, the Dodgers are in good shape to run a bullpen game. They also have a potential multi-inning arm in Brent Honeywell, who was not on the NLDS roster. He had 14 multi-inning appearances out of 20 during the regular season. It is worth noting that Anthony Banda is the lone lefty on the roster for LA. So we’ll see if the Mets can luck into a situation where they get a lefty up in a big leverage spot without Banda on the bump.
Tough game to handicap pre-flop with all the moving parts. Live betting opportunities may be very present here with all the pitching changes and that would be my suggestion in this one.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees (-166, 7.5)
7:37 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 1 of what is being billed as a David vs. Goliath series because of the mammoth payroll disparity between the two teams will feature Alex Cobb and Carlos Rodon. The Guardians were thought to have not done very much at the Trade Deadline, but here’s Cobb making the Game 1 start in the ALCS and they are here because Lane Thomas hit two enormous home runs in the ALDS.
Cobb has only made one start since September 1 and it was a 41-pitch effort in Game 3 against the Tigers. He allowed two runs on three hits with a walk and a couple of strikeouts. Cobb was not hit terribly hard in that start, but did give up a Barrel to Kerry Carpenter and a couple rocket singles in the first inning to Parker Meadows and Riley Greene. He seemed to settle in a bit after that, and it’s understandable that he would struggle having gone so long on the shelf.
It’s tough because there are a lot of things to like about the extreme ground ball right-hander. He’s typically good at limiting hard contact in the air. And the Guardians have an excellent infield defense. But, he also had one whiff in 17 swings. Contact is bad, especially in the playoffs when you get a high-strikeout environment. Tigers hitters had a 100% Z-Contact% against him in that last game. His velocity looked fine and his walk was an intentional one, so the control was good, but you certainly worry about the command with a lot of rust and the stakes at play.
Rodon’s first postseason start didn’t go as planned, as he allowed four runs on seven hits over 3.2 innings. He did strike out seven Royals, but allowed four batted balls over 100 mph, including the Salvador Perez moon shot in the ill-fated fourth inning. His velo was up across the board and he had 12 whiffs in 36 swings. He also threw 57 of his 72 pitches to righties, something we’ll see here as the Guardians leverage their platoon advantages.
Rodon had a 3.96 ERA with a 4.14 xERA and a 4.39 FIP in his 175 innings. Righties posted a .454 SLG and a .330 wOBA against him, as they hit 28 of the 31 homers that he allowed. He was much better at home than he was on the road with a .297 wOBA compared to a .340 wOBA and much better in the second half with a .292 wOBA compared to a .338 wOBA.
I’ll take a stab at the Over 7.5 here. The Guardians bullpen was running on fumes by Game 5. They had a hangover/travel day after clinching at home and now head into this series where Stephen Vogt will ask a lot of them again. I am worried about Cobb’s command, but I also think Cleveland matches up fairly well against Rodon, as they don’t strike out a lot and match up well with lefties. Rodon has allowed a .442 SLG the first time through the order and allowed 13 of his 31 homers, so I think there’s a chance Cleveland could get some offensive life early. I also think we may see Gavin Williams for the first time this postseason and I’m not sure how that’ll go.
The construction of Yankee Stadium and how closed in it is does cut down the effects of the wind a bit, but any potential help out to right field like what we have tonight can’t hurt if a ball gets up high enough.
Pick: Guardians/Yankees Over 7.5 (+100)
