MLB Best Bets Today September 2:
We’ve got 11 games on the Labor Day holiday around Major League Baseball, with three in the NL, three interleague, and five AL matchups, including a huge series in Kansas City between the Guardians and Royals. Rosters expanded yesterday, so teams called up some reinforcements for the stretch run of the season, though roster expansion isn’t nearly as big as it used to be. Teams are allowed to have 28 players now as opposed to when they could call up anybody on the 40-man roster.
So most of the additions aren’t going to make much of an impact, but we’ll get some new faces on the betting board as probable starters and see some other guys shut down or limited now that we’re into the final month of the season.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 2:
Houston Astros (-162, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
4:10 p.m. ET
Justin Verlander and Julian Aguiar are the listed starters here, as Verlander makes his 522nd career MLB start and Aguiar makes his fourth. It is quite the contrast in this Astros and Reds matchup, but a fun stat nonetheless.
Aguiar has allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in his 14 innings. He’s given up five homers already and only has seven strikeouts out of 63 batters faced. This is a midday game, so the teams will catch the warmer weather in Cincinnati, a place where the ball typically flies. Houston is also an upgrade over the lineups that Aguiar has faced, even with Alex Bregman banged up and Kyle Tucker still on the IL.
The Astros are a top-10 offense against righties since the start of August and both righties and lefties have found success against the young right-hander, though lefties have hit four of the five homers and have a .464 wOBA in 34 PA. That should be a good thing for the lefties that the Astros have and they recently added another in Jason Heyward. But, I do think Yordan Alvarez and Jon Singleton are really interesting from a prop standpoint.
Verlander comes in with a 4.16 ERA, 3.79 xERA, and a 4.74 FIP. He just came back from missing about 10 weeks and has allowed six runs on 11 hits in 10 innings. If he can give us a little bit of help, the Astros bullpen had a really busy weekend and they’re out to a six-game lead, so I think this is a chance for Joe Espada to use some of his lesser relievers as well, so that should help the cause.
Pick: Astros/Reds Over 9 (-105)
Boston Red Sox at New York Mets (-122, 8)
7:10 p.m. ET
Brayan Bello and Luis Severino are the slated starters in this one, as we’ll see the Red Sox and Mets play three at Citi Field to start the week. The Mets just returned home from a three-city, 10-day road trip and didn’t get an off day on the Labor Day holiday. They did have one between going from San Diego to Phoenix, but their last off day prior to that was August 12, so they’ve played a lot of games in a short window and that August 12 off day came after a trip out west to Anaheim, St. Louis (for one game), Colorado, and Seattle.
So, I think there is a little bit of a situational advantage for Boston here. I’m also looking to continue my fade of Severino. In two starts since his 113-pitch complete game against the Marlins, Sevy has allowed five runs on 13 hits with five walks and 14 strikeouts. He’s still getting some swings and misses, but he’s had control problems and just allowed a 69.2% Hard Hit% to the Diamondbacks in his last outing.
Severino’s 152.1 innings this season are 63 more than he threw last season, 50.1 more than he threw in 2022, and 133.2 more than he threw over 2019-21, so I can’t help but think that he has to be fatigued at this point. His velocity is mostly holding up, but the control and command looks to be in the spotlight.
Bello comes in with a 4.66 ERA, 4.35 xERA, 4.38 FIP, and a 3.76 xFIP, so I’m hoping that there’s a little positive regression in his future. He is an extreme ground ball guy who has had a home run problem this season, but that is regressing to the mean a bit. He’s only allowed one homer in his last four starts.
Looking to fade Severino, I’m happy to get a plus-money price. I realize the Red Sox haven’t endeared themselves to fans or bettors much lately, but I think this is a good spot.
Pick: Red Sox +102
