MLB Best Bets Today September 9:
Nine games are on the MLB card as a new week begins on the diamond. It is a bit of a scaled-back slate after we had a busy Labor Day schedule a week ago. Days off are a little tougher to find now with the playoff stretch run in progress, so teams definitely need to savor these when they get them.
As will be the case the rest of the way, there are a lot of big favorites on the board. Bettors will be forced to pay a premium on playoff contenders, especially those facing lesser opponents, so do the best you can to find alternate ways of betting baseball if you aren’t interested in laying the heavy chalk.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 9:
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (-162, 8.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
Nick Martinez and Charlie Morton are listed for the Reds and Braves matchup at Truist Park tonight. My focus is on Morton in this one, as he takes on a Reds lineup that has had its moments this season. I’m not terribly confident in Cincinnati winning this game, but I do think that this start could be a struggle for Morton.
Over the last 30 days, the Reds are ninth in BB% at 8.5% and also have the ninth-highest K% at 25.4%. Those are the types of things that will really run up a pitch count. Morton is going on the traditional four days rest here and has had back-to-back starts of 100+ pitches, so I would think that Brian Snitker might scale back the 40-year-old a tad in this outing.
Also, with this total at 17.5 Outs Recorded, Morton has gone under this in each of his last four starts and has only allowed eight runs in that span, so it isn’t like he has pitched poorly. He’s just had a lot of deep counts that have prevented him from completing six innings. He has 28 strikeouts and 11 walks out of 94 batters in that span, so more than 40% of opposing batters have finished without a ball in play.
That takes up time and eats up pitches, as he’s failed to complete six innings while throwing 82, 95, 105, and 100 pitches. I don’t think he’ll be able to do it tonight either, as the Reds’ approach will run up that pitch count and I’d be surprised if Snitker let him get close to 100 again after crossing the threshold in back-to-back starts for the first time this season.
I’ll especially take a chance at plus money.
Pick: Charlie Morton Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+115)
Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins (-185, 8)
7:40 p.m. ET
Reid Detmers and David Festa are the listed starters as the Angels and Twins fire up a weekday series at Target Field. Detmers was excellent in his first MLB start in over three months with 10 strikeouts over six innings against the Dodgers on September 3. He allowed two runs on three hits and walked a couple. I had Detmers Over Strikeouts in that one, which he almost doubled. I know our friends on the Sports Gambling Podcast talk about “laddering” player props, meaning taking the 6+, 7+, 8+ types of lines. That would’ve been good with Detmers there.
I think he has the chance to pitch well again in this one. The Minnesota offense has gone in the tank lately, posting a .269 wOBA over the last 14 days with a 25.9% K%. Run it out to 30 days and they have just a .295 wOBA with a 23.3% K% in that span. They’re also not drawing many walks at all, which can be Detmers’ primary issue.
The Angels offense isn’t doing much right now either. Over the last 30 days, they have a .271 wOBA and a big K% at 26.3%. Cut it to 14 and they’re one spot ahead of the Twins with a .272 wOBA. Since he was recalled for a July 24 start, Festa has a 3.13 ERA with a 2.94 FIP over 37.1 innings of work with a strong 50/12 K/BB ratio.
He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start and has only done that once, so I expect he can keep the paltry Halos offense at bay. Neither bullpen has been overworked lately and the Angels pen has actually gotten a whole lot better as the season has gone along. They’re fifth in reliever ERA over the last 30 days.
Pick: Angels/Twins Under 8 (-115)
