MLB Best Bets Today April 26:
Sixteen games are on tap for today in Major League Baseball, including a doubleheader in Cleveland and one in Detroit. We won’t have baseball in the Bronx, as an early rainout forced the postponement of Blue Jays/Yankees, so that brought us back down to 16 games on the docket. We’ve got some new names and some less familiar names on the list of pitching probables for today, so it will be interesting to see how those guys fare.
As usual, I’ve skipped over the early starts and focused my attention on the games that give the article a little bit of lead time for Saturday, beginning with the 4 p.m. ET window.
Top MLB Resources:
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 26:
New York Mets (-192, 9) at Washington Nationals
4:10 p.m. ET
The “double negative” is something that I typically don’t want to dig deeper into, but this Mets vs. Nationals game is an exception. It will be Clay Holmes against Brad Lord here, as the Mets are heavily favored, so much so that the -1.5 run line is juiced at -115. But, I think this is a pretty extreme mismatch and there are also some weather factors that should work in New York’s favor.
Let’s start with Holmes, who has a 3.16 ERA with a 3.20 xERA and a 2.13 FIP in five starts to begin his Mets career. I was skeptical of the Mets opting to use him as a starter, given that it is something he had not done at the MLB level since 2018. Long-term, I still have concerns and worries about his health, but for right now, he’s been very effective, despite an expected drop in velocity. So effective that he has 34 strikeouts in his 25.2 innings. He has issued 13 walks, but the Nationals rank 24th in BB% this season.
Holmes has allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts while racking up 30 strikeouts against the Marlins twice, Twins, and Cardinals. His worst start came when he faced the Marlins for a second straight time, allowing four runs on five hits in 5.1 innings, but he also struck out 10 of 23 batters in that outing, so the BABIP gods were unkind. That and Huascar Brazoban allowed two inherited runners to score.
Lord made the Nationals as a long reliever type, but got thrust into the starting rotation due to injury. He’s made three starts and allowed six runs on 13 hits over 1.1 innings of work, but his last two starts have been against the Pirates and Rockies. Now one did come at Coors Field, upping the degree of difficulty, but it is still the Rockies. He’s struck out 10 and walked seven as a starter and he’s also a fly ball pitcher with a 36.6% GB% who has not allowed a home run yet.
While Holmes is an extreme ground ball guy, Lord is not. With rain hovering around pregame, it will be warm and humid with a helping breeze to right field at Nationals Park. Holmes should largely be unaffected by the conditions, but I think this is a spot where some regression and the weather combine to give Lord a rough day.
Lastly, the Nationals pen, which has bad numbers to begin with, is a little taxed. Kyle Finnegan blew a save yesterday. Jorge Lopez blew one Wednesday. Those two guys would be working a third time in four days, while Jose Ferrer has worked three straight days. Meanwhile, the Mets pen, which did trip up last night, has nobody working a back-to-back and only Brazoban has worked three of the last four days.
Oh, I guess there’s one more thing. The Mets just welcomed back Francisco Alvarez. While they lost their first game with him in the lineup for this season, they were 58-27 when he started last season and 31-46 when he didn’t. He’s an integral piece of this puzzle. Jeff McNeil came back yesterday, too.
Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 (-115)
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks (-120, 9)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Braves and Diamondbacks battle it out with Grant Holmes and Merrill Kelly set to throw first-inning pitches. This is a one-sided handicap for me and Holmes is the guy on my radar. He comes into this start with a 3.22 ERA, 4.52 xERA, 4.24 FIP, and 4.59 xFIP, so we’ve got some pretty clear regression signs in the profile. Holmes is running a .204 BABIP and a 79.4% LOB%, so he’s been able to strand the large amount of hitters that he has walked.
Holmes had 15 walks in 68.1 innings last season. He has 14 walks in 22.1 innings this season. He’s still doing a pretty decent job of missing bats and keeping the ball in the park, but the degree of difficulty ramps up in a big way here. The Diamondbacks lead MLB in BB% at 11.2%. They are third in wOBA and fifth in wRC+. To this point, Holmes has started against the Dodgers, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Twins. Right now, those teams are 9th, 10th, 22nd, and 23rd in wOBA.
The shortcomings of the Dodgers and Phillies thus far on offense are a talking point in and of themselves, but that’s a topic for another day. Holmes’ last two starts have been against bottom-third offenses. He is facing a top-five offense today with a lot of regression signs in the profile.
Like I said, he’s running a .204 BABIP and a .167 BA against. Statcast data has him down for a .228 xBA, which is good (64th percentile), but obviously more than 60 points higher than his actual BA. He has a .271 wOBA against with a .344 xwOBA, another clear sign of hardship on the horizon. Holmes was in the 97th percentile in Chase%, 92nd percentile in Whiff%, 90th percentile in BB%, and had a .289 xwOBA last season.
This season, he’s getting very lucky on location mistakes and I am very concerned. He’s getting fewer Whiffs with his curveball and fewer ground balls. Some team will take advantage soon and with this step up in class, I think it will be Arizona.
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres (-142, 7)
8:40 p.m. ET
Ryan Pepiot will make his first road start of the season, as the Rays continue their road trip in San Diego. Dylan Cease gets the call for the Padres and I imagine that a lot of people were taken aback to see a total of 7 in this one with pitchers that have ERAs of 4.82 and 6.04, especially with the wind blowing out a bit to RF. I honestly can’t blame them, but there’s a different angle I’m looking at in this one.
Pepiot has absolutely struggled at Steinbrenner Field, something I expected for him and Zack Littell going from Tropicana Field to pitching outdoors in the warmth of Tampa. There are reasons to believe that maybe he fares a bit better, at least from a home run standpoint in this outing, as Petco Park is usually pretty friendly to pitchers.
But, I’m actually looking at Pepiot’s Strikeouts prop in this one. To this point, Pepiot has faced the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Pirates, and Rockies. In order, those five teams rank 25th, 29th, 27th, 13th, and 30th in SwStr%. The Padres are fifth in that department. Pepiot has gotten a 79.3% Z-Contact% this season. He hasn’t gotten a ton of chases, except for his starts against the Rockies and Red Sox, but he’s gotten a ton of swings and misses in the zone.
The best team at making contact in the strike zone? You guessed it. The Padres. Their 89.9% Z-Contact% is the best in baseball by 1.6% over the next closest team (Diamondbacks). The Z-Contact% for Pepiot’s five opponents so far? 26th, 28th, 22nd, 18th, and 29th.
I feel like it will take a lot for him to get to six strikeouts in this one, especially with a park where pitching to contact is a little less penal.
Pick: Ryan Pepiot (TB) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers (-285, 8.5)
9:10 p.m. ET
The Dodgers are heavy favorites in Chavez Ravine against the Pirates, as Roki Sasaki makes his sixth career start and third at Dodger Stadium. The Pirates will counter with veteran right-hander Mitch Keller. And I think a little history will be made tonight at Dodger Stadium.
Sasaki has yet to record a win through five starts, but he’s gone at least five innings in his last two outings, as he’s becoming more comfortable with his pitches and manager Dave Roberts has extended his pitch count out a little bit. Sasaki went 57, 61, and 68 pitches in his first two starts before going 81 and 79 in his last two against the Cubs and Rangers. Now he draws a Pirates offense in the bottom third of the league and certainly without the proven hitters he’s faced in some of his other tests.
Sasaki’s fastball velo was down a bit in his last start, prompting all sorts of concerns, but I was very encouraged by what I saw as his outing went along. Not only did the velo come back, but Sasaki made some adjustments. He threw his slider more than he had in any other start and had his first start under 50% fastball usage. Hitters are batting .244 with a .330 xBA and a .378 SLG with a .612 xSLG on 40 fastballs in play.
But, Sasaki’s other two pitches have generated Whiff% of 45.7% and 44.4%. The 23-year-old is maturing and if he’s going to start trusting his secondaries more, he’s going to get more swings and misses and induce weaker contact. He ranks in the Bottom 9% in Chase% and Bottom 3% in BB%, as he knows his fastball has been getting hit hard and he’s trying to be too fine with it. Now, though, it seems like he’s evolving as a pitcher. And I think Roberts is evolving with the way he’s managing him.
All of the primary relievers for the Dodgers are well-rested here going into tonight’s game. I think the Dodgers desperately want Sasaki to get that first win after two pretty good starts, at least from a results standpoint, the last two times out. Getting him through five innings with a lead seems very doable.
Keller has a .304 wOBA against, but a .382 xwOBA against. He ranks in the Bottom 5% in xBA, Bottom 11% in Whiff%, Bottom 14% in xERA, and Bottom 16% in K%. He has allowed seven Barrels over his last three starts, as the command appears to be dipping. He’s also faced the Cardinals, Nationals, and Guardians in that span, who rank 26th, 19th, and 18th in Barrel%. Those teams are also 15th, 26th, and 29th in Hard Hit%. The Dodgers are 13th in HH% and 9th in Barrel%.
Manager Derek Shelton also has to go to lesser relievers for outs here, as his primary arms have worked three of the last four days, giving the Dodgers the chance to possibly add on.
I’ll take the shot on Sasaki to get the win here offered at DraftKings.
Pick: Roki Sasaki (LAD) To Record A Win (+170)
