NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, April 26:
Here are Saturday’s NHL predictions.
Vegas Golden Knights (-150, 5.5) at Minnesota Wild
Game Four
4 p.m. ET
The Minnesota Wild are one of the early surprises in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs to everyone except the Wild. Minnesota opened the season winning 20 of their first 28 games before the team was crippled by injuries, most notably the loss of superstar Kirill Kaprizov who was limited to just 41 games in the regular season. Now healthy, the Minnesota top line of Kaprizov, Matt Boldy and center Joel Eriksson-Ek (13 shots on goal) has dominated the Golden Knights in the first three games. Boldy (four) and Kaprizov (four) have scored eight of the Wild’s 12 goals in the series.
While the Wild has been carried by their top players, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone have gone missing in action for the opening three games of the series, as both have been held without a point. I do anticipate Eichel making an impact in today’s game, and I will ladder his shots on goal prop. When it comes to shots hitting the target for Vegas, Pavel Dorofeyev is the man. Dorofeyev leads the Knights in shots on goal in the playoffs (12) and was also their regular-season leader in this category. He has had at least three shots on goal in each game of the series.
Game Four Predictions:
Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 SOG (-180) – 1 unit
Pavel Dorofeyev Over 3.5 SOG (+150) – .20 units
Jack Eichel Over 2.5 SOG (-135) – .20 units
Tomas Hertl anytime goal (+240) – .20 units
Kirill Kaprizov anytime goal (+125) – .20 units
Matt Boldy anytime goal (+195) – .20 units
Kirill Kaprizov Over 1.5 points (+168) – .20 units
Kirill Kaprizov Over 3.5 SOG (+120) – .20 units
Joel Eriksson-Ek Over 2.5 SOG (-180) – 1 unit
Vegas and Colorado both to score in the 1st period parlay (+120) – .35 units
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators (-120, 5.5)
Game Four
7 p.m. ET
The Ottawa Senators are the first team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs that find themselves on the brink of elimination as they are down 3-0 in their best-of-seven opening round series against the Provincial rival, Toronto Maple Leafs. If you ever watched the movie Glengarry Glen Ross, the Senators are on the verge of settling for steak knives in this series. After losing handily in game one, 6-2, Ottawa lost the last two games in overtime by identical 3-2 results.
As we saw in Game Three and again today in Game Four, the line is moving to Ottawa as they are in a “must-win” situation. But “must-win” doesn’t mean will win, and for me, it’s Maple Leafs or pass, so I will pass on the side.
Like the other games on today’s card, it’s all about the prop plays. Ottawa’s Tim Stutzle has cashed his shots on goal prop (Over 2.5) in two of the three playoff games in the series and five of his last seven games overall. Claude Giroux has points in two of the three games in the series and averages over a point a game in his career against Toronto. Brady Tkachuk has goals in back-to-back games and has fourteen shots on goal in the series (4,5,5).
For the Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews scored his first goal of the series in game three and now has 14 goals in 17 career games (regular season and playoffs) versus Ottawa goalie Linus Ullmark. Mitch Marner has five assists in the series (four on the Power Play) and Matthew Knies, who finished the season with 29 goals, has two goals in the playoffs.
Game Four Predictions:
Brady Tkachuk anytime goal (+170) – .20 units
Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 SOG (-150) – 1 unit
Brady Tkachuk Over 4.5 SOG (+150) – .15 units
Tim Stutzle Over 2.5 SOG (+155) – .50 units
Claude Giroux Over ½ point (+132) – .20 units
Auston Matthews anytime goal (+140) – .20 units
Matthew Knies anytime goal (+300) – .20 units
Mitch Marner Power Play point (+170) – .10 units
Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche (-180, 6)
Game Four
9:30 p.m. ET
The Dallas Stars have led this series for all of 71 seconds yet find themselves up two games to one in the series as they have won back-to-back games in overtime. At (-180), there is only value to play on the underdog, Dallas Stars tonight, but I can’t get there. I am staying from sides and totals in this game and staying with the player props. Esa Lindell has been a shot-blocking machine for Dallas, leading the way with 12 blocks, with three or more in each game. Former Avalanche, Mikko Rantanen, has 11 shots on goal in the series and has had at least three shots on goal in each game. For the Avalanche, Nathan MacKinnon leads the playoffs with 20 shots on goal (9,4,7), and Devon Toews has 11 blocked shots in the last two games.
Game Four Predictions:
Esa Lindell Over 2.5 blocks (-120) – .50 units
Esa Lindell Over 3.5 blocks (+215) – .20 units
Devon Toews Over 2.5 blocks (+230) – .50 units
Devon Toews Over 3.5 blocks (+625) – .20 units
Mikko Rantanen Over 2.5 SOG (+125) – .20 units
Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 SOG (-210) – 1 unit
Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 SOG (+115) – .25 units
Nathan MacKinnon Over 5.5 SOG (+220) – .10 units
