MLB Best Bets Today April 27
Baseball bettors had to wake up disappointed that today’s games don’t start until 3:07 p.m. ET. That is a late start for a Saturday with all 30 teams in action. We do have one quirky game for today, as the Astros and Rockies play in Mexico City with a total of 16. Mexico City is over 2,000 feet in elevation higher than Denver, so the ball is expected to carry well. Last year’s games between the Padres and Giants ended 16-11 and 6-4.
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here. Please subscribe to the Double Play Podcast with myself and Dustin Swedelson.
Top MLB Resources:
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 27:
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (-142, 7.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
Mitchell Parker makes his third career MLB start and Edward Cabrera makes his third of the season as the Nationals and Marlins continue their series. Parker’s MLB career is off to a fine start with two runs allowed on seven hits over 12 innings with 12 strikeouts and zero walks. He’s faced the Dodgers and Astros, so he’s aced a couple of tough tests to this point.
Parker found a lot of extra swing and miss last time out by deploying his splitter, which he threw 15 times and induced seven whiffs on 12 swings. He’s been spotting his curveball really effectively in the zone for strikes and that has allowed his pedestrian fastball to play up a little bit more. He only threw five splitters in his first start, but I would anticipate we see a similar rate to what we saw against Houston in this one.
The Marlins have been putrid against lefties and draw one they’ve never seen before here, as they are batting .193/.244/.272 with a .236 wOBA and a 46 wRC+. They are actually worse than the White Sox and every other team in that department. Interestingly, the Nationals are 28th in wRC+ against lefties at 65, but that’s not what they face today.
They get Cabrera, who has thrown the ball well in two starts with four runs allowed on 12 hits in 11 innings of work. He’s struck out 17 to this point, but it is important to point out that 12 of those strikeouts are right-handed batters in 25 plate appearances. Lefties have drawn three of the five walks he has allowed and they have six hits in 22 PA. He was a reverse platoon split guy prior to this season and maybe will continue to be, in that righties hit him better than lefties, but some of his arsenal changes seem to be tailored towards neutralizing righties.
Well, the Nationals are likely to throw at least six lefties at him here and maybe a seventh. The Nats have a 100 wRC+ against righties, so they’re perfectly league average, but they do have the 10th-highest BB% and rank a little better than average in K%. Also, they lead the league in stolen bases, so that could help against Cabrera, who does issue a lot of walks.
Lastly, the Marlins used six relievers yesterday and five relievers on Wednesday, so their bullpen is up against it a little bit. The Nationals pen has several fresher arms. I think they’re worth a shot again tonight as an underdog.
Pick: Nationals +120
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres (-118, 7.5)
8:40 p.m. ET
The top pitching matchup today is not in question at all, as we’ll get Ranger Suarez and Dylan Cease out at Petco Park. Suarez is off to an insane start with a 1.36 ERA and a 2.52 FIP over his 33 innings of work. He’s already got a complete game shutout to his name and owns a 32/5 K/BB ratio out of 118 batters faced.
Cease owns a 1.82 ERA with a 2.31 FIP, as he has only allowed six earned runs over 29.2 innings. He’s struck out 35 and walked 11, but he’s also only allowed 11 hits in 112 batters faced. There are some regression signs in the profile for both guys. Suarez has a .205 BABIP against as an extreme ground ball guy with a 59.5% GB% and he’s running an 89.6% LOB%. Cease has a .154 BABIP against.
I like that Cease has more strikeout upside and that’s the difference in this game for me. Suarez is a guy who has held his own in the K% department, but the Padres are one of the more disciplined offenses in baseball this season. They actually have a league-leading 16.5% K% against lefties through 242 PA and have also walked 14% of the time. I think it will be more difficult for Suarez to get those swings and chases outside the zone here.
Cease has tilted more towards the fly ball side this season and San Diego is such a great place to be a pitcher like that. The Phillies only have a 98 wRC+ against righties on the season so far and rank 21st in BB%. I think that’ll cut down on the one thing you worry about with Cease and I like him to have a really good outing today, whereas I could see Suarez having a reversal of some of his numbers.
The Padres pen is in pretty good shape and so is Philly’s, but I think San Diego has a lead to protect and the full-game line is better than the 1st 5 number.
Pick: Padres -118
