MLB Best Bets Today April 6
I am sad. You may have heard or seen or read or implied that this Cleveland native is a die-hard Guardians fan and today is another one of those “dying hard” days with the news that Shane Bieber needs Tommy John. Hopefully Spencer Strider avoids the same fate, but life as a pitcher is really rough these days.
I do look for injury indicators with pitchers. There was no indication that Bieber was hurt (spin rates, velo, etc.), yet we got the news this morning. So, they can definitely be hidden and the process of handicapping baseball is never going to be as cut and dry as you would hope. For me, I just analyze the data, go through my process, and hope that the conclusions I come to are the right ones. And that’s the hope for today, as it is every day.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 6:
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-110, 10)
7:05 p.m. ET
The Lone Star State Showdown continues on Saturday with J.P. France up against Jon Gray. France just returned from the paternity list after the birth of his newborn daughter, but his first start of the season was a really impressive one. He allowed three runs on six hits, but that didn’t tell the story at all of how everything looked and went.
France only allowed a 27.8% Hard Hit% with five batted balls of 95+ mph on 18 batted ball events. He also had a 12.8% SwStr%. Under the hood, there are a ton of really interesting developments. Per Statcast, France threw his cutter nearly 32% of the time and that pitch had a spin rate increase of 150 rpm from last season. That should lead to more swings and misses and also weaker contact than what he allowed last season. He gave up three hits in six batted balls on the pitch, but the average exit velocity with just 77.7 mph, as the Yankees had some lucky outcomes.
France’s fastball shape is also different for this season after opposing batters hit .308 with a .481 SLG on that pitch last season. His changeup was a great pitch last season and looks like a plus pitch again this season. He also had good curveball results last season. I think we’re going to see diminished fastball usage from France and a better mix of his other pitches. Against the right-handed heavy Yankees, we didn’t see as much of the curve or the changeup, but I think he’ll have a deeper pitch mix here against the Rangers.
Meanwhile, the Rangers will send out Gray after he looked rough in his first start. He allowed five runs on seven hits with three walks and just two strikeouts out of 21 batters faced. Gray allowed 10 hard-hit balls in just 16 batted ball events and three barrels. He only had a 4.4% SwStr% rate and just a 14.3% Chase Rate per FanGraphs.
In that start, 91% of his pitches were either fastballs or sliders and his fastball velo was down 1.3 mph from last season. Ultimately, I think he’ll figure it out and be useful for the Rangers, but he was a mess in that first start and I think it’ll take a little bit of time.
The Astros pen has certainly had its issues, but the Rangers haven’t had to use theirs much lately and I think guys want rhythm and routine early in the season. I like Houston today and the full game is five cents better than the 1st 5 at DK, so that’s what we’ll go with.
Pick: Astros -110
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-118, 8)
9:38 p.m. ET
The Red Sox have two more games left on their season-opening West Coast before they get to head home and play at Fenway Park for the first time. It has been a really successful trip, including last night’s 8-6 that gave us a profitable night for the article.
Today’s matchup features Garrett Whitlock and Reid Detmers. Whitlock had an excellent 2024 debut against the Mariners, as he allowed just one run on three hits with eight strikeouts and zero walks. We saw a huge pitch usage change out of him, as he threw fewer fastballs and ramped up the usage of both his slider and changeup.
I’ve talked about that development for the Red Sox multiple times already, as I think it’s really smart that first-year pitching coach Andrew Bailey has made those changes. It certainly helps a guy like Whitlock, who allowed a .326 BA and a .538 SLG on his sinker last season. Whitlock did allow a .312 BA and a .559 SLG on his changeup, but the “x” metrics showed an expected BA of .256 and an expected SLG of .426 based on the batted ball data on that pitch. He’s throwing both a slider and a sweeper per Statcast this season, so he’s got the chance to really minimize the impact of his sinker.
I also love what Detmers is doing this season. The vertical movement of his fastball has changed, so he’s throwing what appears to be a rising fastball. He’s also pumping it in there at 94-96 mph after last season’s velocity increase. He also has a pretty devastating curveball that had a big spin rate increase in his last start. His slider was also a plus pitch for him last season and that, too, has seen a spin rate increase. He also had an Extension increase last time out, so that fastball will get on hitters quickly this season.
Detmers threw 60.2% fastballs against an exceptional Orioles lineup and simply carved them up. They had a 30% Hard Hit%, a 17% SwStr%, and just one run on two hits.
While I like both starters here, the difference to me in this game is the Angels bullpen. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin have worked three of the last four days. Josh Winckowski threw 25 pitches yesterday. The stronger relievers for the Red Sox are likely to be out of commission, while the Angels can throw anybody except Jose Soriano out there.
The other thing I like is that Whitlock did struggle more against righties than lefties last season. I assume Bailey will work to rectify that, but Whitlock does use his sinker more against righties. Anytime he’s going to throw that pitch at a higher frequency, I’d be a bit concerned.
With that, I’ll be on the Angels today.
Pick: Angels -118
