MLB Best Bets Today August 16

Key Highlights:

• Full 15 games on the MLB schedule today
• Marlins vs. Red Sox: Offensive explosion at Fenway?
• White Sox vs. Royals: Hot night at Kauffman Stadium

We’ve got a full day of baseball on August 16, as games start early and end late with all 30 teams in action. There are several games that have favorable weather conditions for batters, so we could see a lot of runs scored today. Rain is hovering, but not completely in the forecast for nearly all of the games, so everything has a good chance at going off without a hitch.

Most of today’s games have had some sort of noteworthy side or total movement as well, so keep an eye on what the markets are doing, the pitchers that the markets are looking to back, and the teams that are getting recurring love from influential bettors for one reason or another.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for August 16:

Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox (-188, 9)

4:10 p.m. ET

Interleague action at Fenway Park brings the Marlins and Red Sox together for Game 2 of a weekend set. The Red Sox won a 2-1 nailbiter last night with a good pitcher’s duel between Lucas Giolito and one-time Red Sock Sandy Alcantara. I find today’s pitching matchup to be a significant downgrade, as we’ll see Cal Quantrill vs. Brayan Bello.

Quantrill has a 5.09 ERA with a 5.29 xERA and a 4.50 FIP over his 106 innings of work. He’s a pitch-to-contact right-hander with mediocre command and a double-digit Barrel% at 11%. While he has thrown the ball well lately, posting a 3.33 ERA in the second half over five starts, including seven of his nine runs in one start, regression signs are everywhere.

In that span, Quantrill only has a 13.4% K%, but he’s somehow running a .213 BABIP with an 82.5% LOB%. Pitching at Fenway Park seems like a good time for those numbers to go in reverse. That’s especially true when you consider he has a 41.8% Hard Hit% and an 11.4% Barrel% in 79 batted ball events in that span. I’m actually surprised that Quantrill has fared better on the road than at home, as Marlins Park is usually kind to pitchers, but this is not your normal road park.

I think there’s some concerning signs with Bello as well. Just as a starting point, he has a 3.25 ERA with a 4.34 xERA and a 4.16 FIP, so there’s some built-in regression with his 77.7% LOB% and his fortunate .283 BABIP. He doesn’t miss many bats either with a 16th percentile Whiff%, 24th percentile K%, and a 35th percentile Chase Rate. The Marlins are fifth in wOBA against RHP over 416 plate appearances this month with a .275/.347/.450 slash.

In Bello’s last five starts, he has a 3.60 ERA with a 3.94 FIP, but his GB% is just 41.6%. That’s 8% below his season average. His arm angle and release point are starting to creep up, so he’s starting to give up more elevated contact. To this point, it hasn’t totally affected him with a 9.7% HR/FB%, but I’m concerned on a warm afternoon against a hot offense at Fenway.

The Red Sox bullpen has a 3.12 ERA, but a 4.38 FIP in August, as they’ve been successful, but don’t miss a ton of bats. The Marlins have a 6.60 ERA with a 4.33 FIP and Marlins relievers have a 4.47 ERA on the road.

Pick: Marlins/Red Sox Over 9 (-112)

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-149, 9.5)

7:10 p.m. ET

AL Central rivals take center stage at The Big K on a hot day in western Missouri. Sean Burke gets the call for the White Sox and Michael Lorenzen makes his return to the Royals rotation after missing a month and a half with an oblique injury.

This is a one-sided handicap for me, as I’m looking at Burke Under 14.5 Outs Recorded at +140. The rookie right-hander only threw 19 MLB innings last season and is up to 114 this season, which is a career-high as a pro. He threw 108 innings in the minors in 2022 and worked 90.2 innings last season. The 2023 season was mostly a wash with just 46.2 innings.

So, I think there are some workload concerns here. While manager Will Venable does want his guys working deeper into games, he does have a lot of young starters and will have to be very careful with them over the remaining six weeks of the season.

Burke has fallen short of this number in four of his five second-half starts, completing five innings just once in a start against the Angels. He needed 88 pitches to get just 10 outs against the Guardians last time out. And I think he’ll see a lot of deep counts again today. The Royals are fourth in Chase Rate in the month of August at just 24.4%. They are third in Contact% in August at 80.9%. They also have the third-lowest K%. Burke has a .291 BABIP against and has given up 17 homers in 114 innings, so he’s had a tough time when not missing bats at a high rate.

KC is also sixth in wOBA against RHP at .341 and has a 115 wRC+ this month with a .271/.345/.438 slash in 396 PA. This one is likely to be a battle for the 6-foot-6 right-hander on a hot night at Kauffman Stadium.

Pick: Sean Burke (CWS) Under 14.5 Outs (+140)