MLB Best Bets Today August 23
Key Highlights:
- Giants vs. Brewers Picks
- Twins vs. White Sox Prediction
- Rare Saturday off day for Cardinals, Rays
While Week 0 college football is dominating the sports world today, we still have 14 baseball games on the card to consider. The Cardinals and Rays have a completely random Saturday off day, as their three-game series began on Thursday and will conclude on Sunday. It’s the first time I can remember seeing that on the MLB slate, but it was built into the schedule.
We had a good bit of drama yesterday with several one-run games, including 1-0 and 2-1 wins by the Red Sox and Padres, respectively, over the Yankees and Dodgers in our big series of the weekend. We have a couple of early starts today, including one in the Bronx, but 12 of the 14 games start at 6:05 p.m. ET or later.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 23:
San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (-148, 7.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
We’ve got a solid pitching matchup here between Logan Webb and Freddy Peralta, as the Brewers look to keep up their winning ways following last night’s walk-off win. That should have everybody buzzing in the clubhouse again today, but as they say, momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher.
And that’s the focus of my handicap here, as Peralta has been in a nice groove with one run allowed over 17 innings in the month of August. The Giants come into this game with a league-high 30.6% K% against righties over the last 14 days. Furthermore, they only have a 5.8% BB% in that span, so they’re whiffing a lot and not really working counts. Pitchers aren’t afraid of their lineup.
Peralta sports a .203/.265/.303 slash against with a .255 wOBA against in 73.2 innings this season, as he’s posted a 1.95 ERA in that split. He also has 81 strikeouts, leading to a 27.5% K% at home. His BB% at home is 5.2% lower than it is on the road, so he’s clearly much more comfortable in the comfy digs.
Over his last seven starts, Webb owns a 4.91 ERA. He has had two excellent starts against the Pirates, one against the Rays, and four other starts with at least four runs allowed. Only two of his seven starts have come on the road, where he has been a different pitcher throughout his career. He’s still been effective, but not as strong as he’s been at home.
Webb’s best attribute is that he doesn’t give up home runs, but the Brewers aren’t built like that offensively anyway, as they are 10th in wOBA and eighth in wRC+ while being 19th in homers. They are the league’s top baserunning team per FanGraphs’ all-encompassing BsR metric. They’re just a really athletic baseball team that battles in every count and doesn’t strike out much. I don’t love this matchup for Webb and love it for Peralta.
Picks: Brewers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+105); Freddy Peralta (MIL) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-112, 9.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
Mick Abel will make his Twins debut against Davis Martin and the White Sox, as these AL Central rivals keep playing out the string of the season. Abel was sent to Triple-A to get acclimated to his new organization and shined with three runs allowed on seven hits in three Triple-A starts with a 23/6 K/BB ratio. So it makes sense that the Twins decided to call him up and give him a shot here.
Abel had a 5.04 ERA with a 6.28 FIP in six starts for the Phillies, but he did draw some very tough assignments. He faced the Padres, Mets, Marlins, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Pirates. The White Sox had some moments coming out of the All-Star Break, but they’re down to a .313 wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days and rank 15th in the month of August after leading the league for some time earlier this month.
It looks as though Minnesota has pulled back some of the slider and sinker usage for Abel, opting for more curveballs and a slight uptick in changeups. His curveball graded as a 123 per Stuff+, so that appears to be his best pitch. It makes sense that the Twins would look to push that one harder.
Martin has a 3.94 ERA with a 5.52 xERA and a 4.64 FIP in his 107.1 innings of work. He’s given up 15 homers and has just a 16.5% K% with a 45.7% Hard Hit% and a 10.1% Barrel%. That would be among the reasons why his xERA is so high. The Twins have a handful of power bats from the left side, including Matt Wallner, Koby Clemens, and Trevor Larnach that should match up well here.
Even with the trades and transactions, the Twins bullpen grades much higher than the White Sox bullpen this month, posting a 3.54 ERA compared to a 4.68 ERA for the Pale Hose.
Pick: Twins -108
