MLB Best Bets Today August 3:
Fifteen games are on the MLB card for Saturday, as we’ve got a very busy day on the diamond. Action begins at 1:05 p.m. ET and rolls right on into the night with the last first pitch at 9:40 p.m. ET. Whether you go throughout the day game-by-game or just hunt and peck for your favorite picks, you are not short on options for August 3.
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Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 3:
Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (-155, 8)
7:15 p.m. ET
The Rays and Astros continue their weekend set down at The Juice Box in Houston. This game is not being played at Tropicana Field, and that is a problem for Rays starter Zack Littell. I found it a little bit surprising that Littell wasn’t traded at the deadline, but teams may very well have been scared off by his road splits.
In 48 innings outside of Tampa, Littell has a 5.81 ERA with a 4.61 FIP on the season. He has allowed a .343/.378/.557 slash with a .401 wOBA. Brent Rooker has a .403 wOBA for the season. Marcell Ozuna has a .404. So, opposing hitters are collectively hitting like those two guys against Littell in his road outings this season.
It has actually gotten worse lately, as Littell has a 7.48 ERA in his last six road starts with a .371/.405/.645 slash and a .446 wOBA against. Since the start of June, Littell has a 5.05 ERA with a 5.16 FIP and most of that damage is due to what has happened on the road. He’s allowed 12 runs on 18 hits in his last 9.2 innings on the road.
There are some scientific elements to this, but I feel like this has to be a mental thing for Littell as well. His K% is down nearly 5% on the road and his HR/FB% is up over 5%. Hopefully the Astros are able to keep his road struggles in place today.
Pick: Astros 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+120)
New York Mets (-125, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
The Mets drew first blood on the left coast to start a very weird 10-game road trip that includes a makeup game in St. Louis on Monday’s off day. They’ve continued to play well coming out of the All-Star Break with a 9-5 record and are favored to take down another dub today against the Halos.
It will be southpaw David Peterson for the Metropolitans and right-hander Jose Soriano for the Angels. Peterson does have some negative regression signs in the profile with a 3.52 ERA, but a 5.58 xERA and a 4.81 FIP, which is keeping this line in the range that it’s in. Peterson has seen a huge drop in K% this season from 26% to 18.2% and his BB% has remained in double digits, so bettors are a little bit turned off by him.
In this start, though, Peterson draws an Angels lineup that has a .247 wOBA with a 56 wRC+ against lefties over the last 30 days. The next lowest wOBA is .255 and that belongs to the Reds, who got no-hit by a lefty last night in Blake Snell. No, I’m not saying Peterson will throw a no-no, but I think he has the ability to stave off that negative regression in a matchup like this.
Soriano has some mild regression signs of his own with a 3.69 ERA, 4.33 xERA, and a 4.06 FIP in his 97.2 innings. He just allowed six runs on five hits in 2.2 innings against the A’s and has allowed seven runs over 10.1 innings in two starts since the Break. He’s walked five against just seven strikeouts in 44 batters faced. The Mets have been a top-10 offense against righties over the last 30 days.
Ben Joyce is an elite reliever and he’s rested today for the Angels, but the rest of the bullpen is lacking. With Thursday’s off day and a 5-1 win yesterday, the Mets pen is in very good shape. I think this price is worth a look at the Mets.
Pick: Mets -125
