MLB Best Bets Today August 31:
College football is dominating the sports betting landscape on Saturday, but we’ve got 15 baseball games on the docket for the final day of August. Some September call-ups will provide reinforcements tomorrow, but teams won’t have that luxury today. We only have one 1 p.m. start, so there is a lot of time to navigate the card while you take breaks from the CFB slate.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 31:
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians (-166, 8.5)
6:10 p.m. ET
Luis Ortiz and Matthew Boyd are the listed starters for tonight’s Pirates vs. Guardians tilt. Cleveland won a high-scoring affair last night and will likely have to find a way to get by without Josh Naylor tonight, as he suffered a bruised ankle last night.
My focus here, though, is on Boyd against the Buccos. In three starts, Boyd has gone at least 5.1 innings with a 12/5 K/BB ratio and has been a strike-throwing machine. Boyd’s efficiency is an attribute that most of the Guardians rotation lacks and it has been a huge development for manager Stephen Vogt.
In this one, I think Boyd could have a little bit longer of a leash. He’s going on an extra day’s rest and he went a season-high 85 pitches in his start on extra rest against the Yankees, but that was a game where the patient Yanks took 38 balls against 47 strikes. In Boyd’s two other starts, he’s thrown 19 and 28 balls out of 80 pitches.
The Pirates are not patient. In fact, they have a 32.3% K% and a 6.2% BB% against lefties in the month of August. With Alex Cobb returning from the IL tomorrow and a series with the Royals looming Monday-Wednesday, I think we’ll see Vogt look to push Boyd farther tonight than he has. Cleveland is off on Thursday again, so Boyd will get an extra day before starting over the weekend.
Not to mention, he’s gotten at least 16 outs in all three starts thus far over lineups objectively better than Pittsburgh’s. It seems likely to me that he can get to 17 or better in this one. I also think they match up pretty well with Luis Ortiz and that may give Boyd more runway.
Pick: Matthew Boyd Over 16.5 Outs (-105)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-135, 9.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks
8:10 p.m. ET
Gavin Stone and Merrill Kelly are the listed hurlers for Game 2 of this wraparound four-game set. Game 1 was certainly a thriller with 19 runs scored, as the Dodgers won 10-9 in a game where the teams combined to go just 6-for-27 with RISP. Maybe the humidor settings were cranked up a bit at Chase Field.
Kelly is the focal point for me here. In three starts since returning from a long-term injury stint, he’s allowed 12 runs on 18 hits in 16 innings with an 11/7 K/BB ratio. That’s a 6.75 ERA and a 5.73 FIP for those keeping track. He’s also allowed three homers, facing the Phillies, Rays, and Red Sox.
Kelly allowed 13 hard-hit balls for a 76.5% Hard Hit% and four Barrels in his last start against the Sox. He allowed a 42.1% Hard Hit% and three Barrels against the Rays. He’s back at home now, which might help, but this is one of the very rare instances where I’m going to cite Team vs. Pitcher splits. The Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani this year and didn’t previously have him, so their lineup has gotten even stronger. Kelly is 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA against the Dodgers over 83.2 career innings. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed 33 runs on 59 hits in 44.1 innings. Last season, he had a 3.98 ERA over four starts, but walked 13 and only struck out 11.
The Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total is 2.5 at -110 and I think they can get over this. They’ve shown tremendous patience against Kelly over the last two seasons with a 13.6% BB% and Kelly’s command is clearly not where it needs to be based on all of the hard contact he’s allowed since coming back.
Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)
