MLB Best Bets Today July 12

Two days worth of baseball remain before the MLB All-Star Break. It will be a long day on the diamond for baseball fans, as our first game gets going in the Bronx at 1:05 p.m. ET and our final first pitch is in Sacramento at 10:05 p.m. ET. There is no Sunday Night Baseball game tomorrow, so I will pen my thoughts on the Home Run Derby, but we’ve got a full slate of games to worry about first.

As usual, with the early Saturday starts and the time difference out here in Las Vegas, my focus is on the later games, but Greg Peterson always has some early action if that’s what you’re looking for.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 12:

Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers (-274, 9)

4:10 p.m. ET

The Nationals have to be excited to get away from it all for a few days. Manager Dave Martinez was fired earlier this week and so was GM Mike Rizzo, signaling a reboot for the organization. So far, Washington is 1-3 under interim manager Miguel Cairo, but this has been a prolonged stretch of bad baseball from the Nats.

Washington won four games in a row from May 28-31 to get to 28-30. Since then, they’ve gone 10-26, including losses in six of their last seven. The Brewers, meanwhile, have been riding quite a wave for a while and it will be a special day at AmFam Field today with Brandon Woodruff on the mound.

The longtime ace of the Brewers rotation made his emotional return with six innings of one-run ball against the Marlins on July 6. It was his first MLB start since September 23, 2023. Today marks his first home start since he faced the Nationals back on September 17 of that year. He’s going to get an enormous ovation from a jazzed-up fan base that is really excited about everything happening with their beloved ballclub.

The Nationals can’t match that energy. Plus, today’s starter is Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who was signed out of Japan prior to this season. Ogasawara made his MLB debut last time out against Boston and allowed four runs on seven hits in just 2.2 innings of work. He made three starts at Triple-A and then missed two months, making rehab starts at the Complex League in Florida and then two starts at High-A before getting the call. Ogasawara was solid in Japan, but he didn’t miss many bats in his final season with a 13.6% K%.

I’ll lay the -1.5 with the Brewers in the 1st 5 to get plus money at +105. I expect Woodruff to shine on a big day at home and the Milwaukee offense to do its part against an unproven arm.

Pick: Brewers 1st 5 Alt Run Line -1.5 (+105)

Philadelphia Phillies (-163, 7.5) at San Diego Padres

7:35 p.m. ET

Zack Wheeler and Yu Darvish come together for an outstanding pitching matchup in an outstanding pitcher’s park today. Wheeler has allowed more than one earned run in a start just once dating back to May 11. The Braves got him for six runs over 5.1 innings on May 29. Beyond that, Wheeler has allowed 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0 earned runs otherwise, as he comes in with a 2.17 ERA and a 2.49 FIP over 116 masterful innings.

Wheeler just went eight shutout against the Padres at Citizens Bank Park a couple of starts ago with 10 strikeouts against zero walks. The Padres are playing some good baseball right now, but the offense is still lagging behind, as they are 23rd in wOBA and 20th in wRC+ over the last week. Over the last two weeks, they are 21st in wOBA and 20th in wRC+. It’s been a struggle offensively for a while now.

Darvish gave up two runs on three hits in his first MLB start since last year’s postseason in his July 7 start against the Diamondbacks. He wasn’t hit very hard, though, as he only allowed three hard-hit balls in nine batted ball events and zero Barrels. He did have some control issues with five strikeouts and three walks over 63 pitches.

I like Darvish at home again here in a park that is very forgiving and I like Wheeler anywhere he’s pitching. We’ll see how far Darvish can go, but I like Under 3.5 at +110 here for the 1st 5.

One thing I do want to note is that Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada have all worked four of the last six days. Adam is sure to be unavailable with 55 pitches in the last two days. There could be a live betting opportunity on the Phillies today. I tried to think of a creative way to take advantage of this bullpen situation, but the run line price isn’t good enough on Philly with the expectation of a low-scoring game with a total of 7.5.

However, if the Phillies do lead late, lesser arms are sure to come in, so they have the chance to add on.

Pick: Phillies/Padres 1st 5 Under 3.5 (+110)