MLB Best Bets Today July 27:
The MLB Trade Deadline has really ramped up over the last couple of days, as some key players will be establishing new residences and others are now wondering about their fates as the market value for certain positions has been set. As I mentioned yesterday, these are difficult times for players and their families, even those who don’t get traded, as friends and mentors get shipped to other places.
All 30 teams still have to try to focus on the task at hand, though, as we have a full card for Saturday.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 27:
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (-125, 8)
4:10 p.m. ET
The Braves desperately need a pick-me-up heading into Saturday’s game against the Mets and they’ll turn to Spencer Schwellenbach in hopes of getting just that. New York counters with Tylor Megill, who makes his return from four weeks on the IL.
Megill did make three rehab starts at Triple-A and allowed seven runs (six earned) with 20 strikeouts and 11 walks in 13.1 innings of work. In eight MLB starts, Megill has a 5.08 ERA with a 3.32 FIP and a 3.97 xFIP, so you could say that there are some positive regression signs in the profile, but you’d have to assume a reasonable level of command for that to happen. Megill doesn’t have that. He has allowed a 46.2% Hard Hit% and a 10.6% Barrel% out of 104 batted ball events.
He’s also had some reverse platoon splits, as righties have a .340 wOBA against him compared to a .301 wOBA from lefties. The sample sizes are a little small, but despite high velocities and decent stuff, he’s always been more of a tweener than anything else.
Schwellenbach is a guy that I really like and I think his teammates are desperate after losing six in a row and falling behind the Mets. He has a 4.62 ERA with a 3.83 FIP and a 3.74 xFIP, so there are some positive regression signs for him. He’s added some more strikeouts after getting settled in at the big league level and has done a great job with contact management. He has a 38.3% Hard Hit% with a 4.7% Barrel%. He had actually only allowed four Barrels in eight starts before the Cardinals touched him up for three homers last time out.
Schwellenbach is second among rookies in the Pitching+ metric, trailing only Jared Jones. Yes, he’s even higher than Paul Skenes due to his 108 Location+. His Stuff+ of 97 ranks 14th out of 25 rookies with at least 50 innings, but he has a 35% Chase Rate and a 13% SwStr%.
They say that momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher and I’m not a big Megill guy, while I do like Schwellenbach. The Mets bullpen has done some shuffling due to injuries and has had a high workload as well, so I think that could play in Atlanta’s favor today.
Pick: Braves +105
Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays (-135, 8)
4:10 p.m. ET
A day after trading Randy Arozarena and losing 3-2 in extras to the Reds, the Rays are home favorites at the Trop for Game 2 of this weekend set. It will be Zack Littell for Tampa Bay and Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati on a day where both teams are sitting on some pins and needles wondering what the future might hold. Tampa is already a seller and Cincinnati may follow suit, depending on what happens in the NL Wild Card picture over the next few days.
It has been a tale of two seasons for Littell based on where his start is taking place. At home, Littell has a 3.36 ERA with a .250/.290/.390 slash against and a .298 wOBA. He has 58 strikeouts in 59 innings and has felt a lot more comfortable. On the road, he has a 5.81 ERA with a .343/.378/.557 slash and a .402 wOBA. Rafael Devers has a .401 wOBA. Andy Pages and Paul DeJong have a .298 wOBA.
So, Littell has been far better in the friendly confines of Tropicana Field. That’s where he’ll be for this start against a Reds team that hasn’t really seen him and ranks 19th in wOBA away from home at .301. Great American Ball Park is a great hitter’s park. Tropicana Field is not.
On the Abbott side of things, he has a 3.19 ERA with a 3.63 xERA. He does have a 4.84 FIP because the four components of FIP in HR, K, and BB and Abbott has not really shined in any of those areas. However, I think he’s gotten really unlucky on the home run front to allow 18 round-trippers, as he has a 32.1% Hard Hit% and a 7.9% Barrel% against.
As mentioned, Cincy is a good hitter’s park, so it should come as no surprise that Abbott has a higher wOBA and ERA at home than he does on the road. He’s worked 16.1 more innings on the road and has a .288 wOBA against with a 2.92 ERA. His HR/FB% also goes from 14.1% to 9.1%.
The Rays lost one of their top performers against lefties with the Arozarena deal and I don’t think the vibes are very high around the team right now. I think it could be a slow start for both teams today.
Pick: 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-120)
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants Game 2 (-198, 8)
10:35 p.m. ET
I typically don’t get too involved in doubleheaders, but I’m making an exception for Game 2 between the Rockies and the Giants. The listed starters are Tanner Gordon and Hayden Birdsong for the nightcap. First, I can’t imagine the Rockies are super invested in playing doubleheaders as a team with a 38-66 record entering play today. The Giants aren’t great at 50-55, but at least they’re within striking distance.
But, this is a huge pitching matchup disparity, especially if the Rockies are in “let’s get back to the hotel” mode. Birdsong struck out 12 Rockies at Coors Field last time out, as we saw the strikeout numbers he had in the minors translate to the big leagues. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in four July starts and looks like a really solid prospect after posting a 2.51 ERA in 57.1 innings down in the minors.
Birdsong had 75 strikeouts against 26 walks down there and only allowed six homers in the hitter-happy PCL. Meanwhile, Gordon, a left-hander, allowed nine homers in fewer than 40 innings at Triple-A. In two MLB starts, Gordon has allowed 11 runs on 16 hits and has given up six homers to the Royals and Mets. He’s only struck out seven of the 46 batters that he has faced and both teams have had a Hard Hit% over 50% against him.
It looks to me like we have a huge pitching discrepancy here and that the Giants should benefit on a long evening with a rare doubleheader at Oracle Park.
Pick: Giants 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-125)
