MLB Best Bets Today June 29:
All 30 teams take the field on Saturday with baseball scheduled throughout the day. The month of June only has a couple of days left and teams are crossing the midpoint of the season, so we’re truly into the dog days of summer with the All-Star Break looming in a couple of weeks. There are quite a few interesting games and lines on the board for today.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 29:
Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks (-205, 8)
4:10 p.m. ET
One interesting game is this one between the A’s and Diamondbacks, as Zac Gallen makes his first start in about a month. Oakland will send out Hogan Harris against the Arizona ace, as the D-Backs desperately need him back with the way that Jordan Montgomery has struggled.
Arizona opted not to send Gallen on a rehab assignment, as he threw 67 pitches in a sim game and then a bullpen, where he was deemed ready to return. The D-Backs have lost five of six and were routed last night by the A’s, so this will give the appearance of a really big start for Gallen in his return.
A lot of people are piling in on his strikeout prop, and understandably so with an A’s lineup that does whiff a lot against righties, but I’m looking at the Walks Allowed prop of 1.5 with some plus money on the Over. It is hard for a pitcher to keep his emotions in check when coming back from injury, especially a player as important as Gallen is to his team. He’s gone Over 1.5 Walks in five of his 10 starts and the A’s do rank 12th in BB% this month at 8.2%. They’ve been a little better at generating free passes against lefties, but I would expect some deep counts from Gallen here and maybe not the best execution of his “out” pitches.
At plus money, I think this is worth a shot.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+110)
Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays (-135, 7.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
We’ve got an intriguing pitching matchup at the Trop today between the Nationals and Rays. Jake Irvin gets the call for the Nationals and Aaron Civale will go for the Rays. Irvin has been a breakout star for the Nats this season with a 3.13 ERA and a 3.41 FIP over 92 innings of work to this point. Recently, he’s added a little more swing and miss to the mix with a couple of double-digit strikeout games, including one in Colorado last time out.
Irvin’s success stems largely from not issuing walks. He’s surrendered just 20 free passes over his 16 starts. He’s also kept the ball in the park at a good rate with nine homers allowed, which isn’t bad at all as a guy who hasn’t had a ton of strikeouts in most of his starts. I think he’s a good pitcher and he’s a guy who has gotten adept at working up in the zone with the fastball.
Civale is a guy who also works up in the zone with the fastball. I’m referencing back to those “Attack Zones” as defined by Statcast here in this one and it has led me to a play on the 1st 5 Under. The Nationals do not do well on pitches in the upper portions of the zone. They have a .188 BA (26th) with a .310 SLG (27th). Civale is most effective when he can work up in the zone, much like what we saw last time out against the Pirates and three starts ago against the Cubs when the bullpen blew our Rays play.
In between, Civale faced the Twins, who got four runs on seven hits, as they are one of the leaders in SLG in terms of pitches in those zones. The Rays rank 20th in SLG at .345 and below the league average BA (.214) on those types of pitches at .200.
I was torn between the Under 3.5 at +124 and the Under 4.5 at -140, as the vig on those bets is very different. Because of Civale’s home run concerns, I’ll lay the extra vig and go with the -140 to be safer on Under 4.5, but I think the plus-money price absolutely has a chance.
Pick: Nationals/Rays 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-140)
