MLB Best Bets Today March 30
Rain threatens a few games today for our first MLB Saturday of the season. If Mother Nature decides to back off a bit, we’ll get all 30 teams for the first time. If not, we’ll see how many postponements we end up with, as California is once again the focal point for showers.
Like I said yesterday, I’ll be leaving the intro in for a few days as we get into the season. Also, please note that there is no article on Sundays. Between all the early starts and my location in PT, it is tough to get something out with some lead time. Also, it’s a 187-day season, plus playoffs, so it’s truly a marathon.
Top MLB Resources:
I’ll be writing my MLB best bets today article Monday-Saturday over the course of the season, but those that have read it in the past will notice a few wrinkles.
I will only be writing up games I have picks on. In the past, I would share information about other games and pitchers on my radar, but I’ll just be filing those things away in my own mind in hopes of finding bets down the line.
Also, I will be incorporating more props into my MLB article this season, rather than just sides, totals, and run lines. Pitcher strikeout props, outs props, and other things that are widely available in the legal U.S. markets will be included.
The VSiN Daily Baseball Bets podcast is gone (RIP), but I will be co-hosting the Double Play Baseball Podcast for DraftKings with Dustin Swedelson. That will be less of a betting podcast and more of a general baseball podcast, but we will sprinkle in a little bit of handicapping content.
The season-long tracking sheet can be found here. Typically, this article will come out around 9-10 a.m. PT, but I’ll try to get it out quicker on days with a lot of day games.
Lines will be from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate at time of publish. In the interest of transparency and a lack of confusion, I will cite lines from the “Game” tab, which, unfortunately, means “Action” regardless of who starts. When possible, always select the “Listed Pitcher” odds where both pitchers must start, especially if there is no significant price difference. The game I handicapped and the game you handicapped is with the two listed, probable pitchers. In the era of openers and late scratches, pitching changes will happen and odds will change. Protect yourself the best you can.
Finally, SHOP AROUND. Have multiple sportsbooks to choose from so you can get the best line possible. My lines in the article are from DraftKings because they own VSiN, not because they have the best odds on that game. It is your responsibility to get the best line that you can.
Check out all my preseason content, including previews for all 30 teams and baseball betting tips, right here.
MLB Odds | MLB Betting Splits | MLB Matchups
Here are the MLB best bets today for March 30:
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles (-162, 8.5)
4:05 p.m. ET
The Angels and Orioles will get back to work today after having yesterday off in the event of an Opening Day postponement. My focus in this one is on a pitcher prop and it features Griffin Canning. Canning is a guy that I have paid close attention to over the years because his pitch mix really frustrates me. He throws way too many fastballs when his secondaries do a better job of generating whiffs and helping his success.
Canning’s fastball over four MLB seasons is -20.3 pitching runs, but he throws it about 40% of the time. Last season, he made the switch and threw it about 36% of the time, along with a nice bump in velo. However, this early in the season, I don’t know that he’ll be terribly sharp with both the velo and the feel for his other pitches, particularly the changeup.
He was actually pulled in the second inning of his final Spring Training start, only to be put back in because of the weird roster loopholes of exhibition games. He was pulled because he was struggling through the inning. He wound up with eight strikeouts, but he wouldn’t have come back into a normal game. He was among the worst pitchers in the Spring at generating swings and misses and only had 10 K over his first four appearances before that Dodgers game.
Canning also had a sub-30% Chase Rate last season and saw a big spike in Z-Contact% from 2021 to 2023. I expect the Orioles to put lots of balls in play here and I’m willing to lay the juice on his Under 5.5 Strikeouts prop.
Pick: Griffin Canning Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 8.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
The Jays and Rays have split the first two games of this season and we’ll get a Saturday matchup between Yusei Kikuchi and Zack Littell. I mentioned how the Rays are a little underwhelming against righties right now with Josh Lowe and Jonathan Aranda on the IL, but their right-handed-heavy lineup should be better positioned to take on southpaws and they get one here in Kikuchi.
Kikuchi was solid last season, but he allowed a .266/.321/.435 slash and a .327 wOBA to righties, as they hit 21 of the 27 homers that he allowed. Most notably, righties batted .290/.333/.448 off Kikuchi in games not played at Rogers Centre. He had a 4.24 ERA with a .481 SLG against in the first half last season and allowed 22 of his 27 homers.
Kikuchi was also very shaky in Spring Training, as he allowed 14 runs in just 7.2 innings over his three MLB games, including eight runs allowed in his final tune-up against the Tigers.
Tampa Bay was fourth with a 120 wRC+ against lefties last season and there’s a good chance they could be throwing as many as eight righties against Kikuchi. Also, as I mentioned before Opening Day, I’m a little bit worried about the bullpen for the Jays right now with Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson out. The ceiling is definitely lower with those two absences.
Littell had a 3.93 ERA with a 3.99 FIP over 87 innings for the Rays after coming over from the Red Sox. Tampa Bay just kind of figures it all out with these guys and Littell was another success story. He allowed just a .294 wOBA in the second half and had a 3.57 ERA. As the season went along, Littell found more strikeouts and altered his pitch usage, throwing fewer fastballs and more cutters/sliders. He also had more of a sweeper. I would expect that the Rays worked on a lot of things to optimize his arsenal this offseason as well.
I definitely like Tampa’s immense offensive upside against lefties and won’t be shocked if Littell is even better this year, so I think this is a good price.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-125)
Minnesota Twins (-125, 8) at Kansas City Royals
4:10 p.m. ET
Joe Ryan and Seth Lugo square off today at Kauffman Stadium, as the Twins and Royals get back on the field after yesterday’s scheduled off day. These are two guys I like heading into the season. Ryan has added a cutter and displayed a really nice splitter last season that he seems to have improved upon over the offseason.
Ryan got off to an unbelievable start last season, holding opponents to a .232 wOBA in March/April and a .269 wOBA in May before leaking a little bit of oil in June as it got warmer. He’s an extreme fly ball guy and he allowed 26 homers from June through the end of the regular season. I would expect him to have better fortunes with the cooler air of the early part of the season.
I also expect Lugo to fare well with the Royals. He’s been an underrated guy throughout his career and is now one of the elder statesmen of the KC rotation. He posted a 3.57 ERA with a 3.83 FIP in 146.1 innings of work last year with the Padres. It is important to point out that Lugo was about as good on the road as he was at home. He did allow five more homers, but also threw 18.1 more road innings. It wasn’t just from being at Petco Park that he had success.
Lugo’s strike-throwing prowess should play up here against the Twins as well, as they do have a lot of guys that swing and miss. They’ll also be without Royce Lewis, who is back on the IL once again.
Pick: Under 8 (-108)
