MLB Best Bets Today May 17

A full slate of games is on tap for Saturday, as we continue “Rivalry Weekend” across MLB. Not every team has a rival, and some feel forced, but there are 11 interleague series this weekend and some really intriguing matchups. There are three games that begin prior to 4:05 p.m. ET, but most of the schedule is going to feature games that are completed under the lights.

As usual on the weekends or days with getaway games, my focus is on games that give some lead time to our readers.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 17:

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-120, 8)

7:05 p.m. ET

The Lone Star State rivalry continues on Saturday night with a matchup between the Astros and the Rangers. It will be Ronel Blanco and Tyler Mahle in this one, as I’m looking at Mahle and the clear regression signs that are present in his profile. I know I’ve been harping on this for a while, but I really don’t see Mahle as one to keep a 1.47 ERA for too long.

His advanced metrics are still solid, as he has a 3.34 xERA and a 3.10 FIP, so it’s not like he’s getting extremely lucky. But, he is absolutely getting lucky. His .216 BABIP and 88.2% LOB% are just too far out of whack to be sustainable. He has a .179 BA against with a .244 xBA against. Mahle also has a 19.6% K%, which really adds some fuel to the LOB% fire. He only has 6.8 K/9 to look at it another way.

Mahle ranks in the 36th percentile in K%, 30th percentile in Whiff%, and 50th percentile in BB%, so it’s not like he’s exhibiting really strong control or anything like that. He also ranks in the 17th percentile in fastball velo. Guys who can’t overpower people have a really hard time keeping their BABIPs low and their LOB% high.

Meanwhile, Blanco is a positive regression candidate in some ways and some of it came to fruition last time out, as he threw eight shutout innings with 11 strikeouts in his last start. He has a 4.04 ERA and a 4.11 FIP, but a 2.82 xERA. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and he only has a 29.2% Hard Hit% and an 8.0% Barrel%, which is really solid for a predominantly fly ball pitcher.

His contact management skills definitely support stronger run metrics than what he has now. So, I’m looking to buy on that here and also fade the numerous signs with Mahle. Add in that I still truly believe that the Astros bullpen is more trustworthy than the Rangers bullpen and I can’t help but take the underdog at even money here, even with some value lost thanks to an overnight line move.

Pick: Astros +100

Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres (-192, 8.5)

8:40 p.m. ET

Emerson Hancock and Nick Pivetta are the slated starters for this matchup between the Mariners and Padres. Like I said, it’s “rivalry weekend”, but not everybody has a rival. That is the case in this series, as the only similarities between the two teams is that they play in attractive West Coast cities.

Hancock had an unsavory matchup against the Yankees last time out. While it was at home, Hancock struggled with his location, as he allowed 10 hard-hit balls and five Barrels. Up until that point, he had allowed five Barrels in his five previous starts. He was crushed in his first start and crushed in his last start, but in between Hancock had a 3.52 ERA with a 3.53 FIP over a four-start stretch. I do believe that the Mariners believe in the stuff profile, and a game in Petco Park should be pretty favorable for a guy like Hancock, who will predominantly pitch to contact.

I can’t sing the praises of Pivetta enough. Getting out of Boston and getting away from the AL East has paid immediate dividends, as he comes into this start with a 3.05 ERA, 3.85 xERA, and a 3.08 FIP in eight starts over 44.1 innings of work. He’s doing his usual thing with a good K% and a low BB%, but the command profile should improve based on the park factor and the significant shift in offensive upside from a power standpoint.

I’m not shocked that his HR/FB% is 7.3%, which is less than half of what it was last season. In 25.1 innings at home, Pivetta has a 1.42 ERA and has held the opposition to a .153/.180/.224 slash. The Padres also have one of the best bullpens in support behind him. While the Mariners have performed well offensively this season, I think this is one of those situations where they will be held down by a good starting pitcher and a terrific bullpen designed to throw with high velocities and a lot of swing-and-miss upside.

This feels like a good Under play to me. Hancock is facing a Padres lineup that is 24th in Hard Hit% and 29th in Barrel%, so he should keep the ball in the yard and Pivetta at home, backed by an excellent bullpen, should keep the Mariners at bay.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-118)