MLB Best Bets Today October 19:
Baseball can be a really cruel game. If you had told me that the Guardians would score six runs on Friday night, I’d have told you this series would be tied 2-2. But, the best closer in baseball, one of the only guys Cleveland could not afford to struggle, has been anything but that in the postseason and now elimination is near.
We’ll see if the AL champ is crowned on Saturday or not in the only game on the schedule, as the scrappy Guardians fight for their lives against the favored Yankees.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 19:
New York Yankees (-122, 7.5) at Cleveland Guardians
8:08 p.m. ET (TBS)
Carlos Rodon and Tanner Bibee are the listed hurlers here, as the Guardians look to do what the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers did and erase a 3-1 playoff deficit. It will be a tall task, as super reliever Cade Smith and the aforementioned Emmanuel Clase are running on fumes. Guardians relievers have had to shoulder a tremendously heavy burden all year long, as the Guardians ranked 24th in starting pitcher innings during the regular season and have not gotten much from them in the playoffs.
Clase struggled again in Game 4, but it was really the Giancarlo Stanton HR off of Smith that took the wind out of Cleveland’s sails. They came back and tied the game and then Clase did what he did, albeit not getting hit very hard at all like he did in Game 3. He gave up one loud out to Juan Soto, but the other batted balls were 93.5, 92.7, 71.3, 68, and 44 mph.
Anyway, that’s over and now it’s today. Rodon was outstanding in Game 1 against the Guardians, as he induced a Yankees playoff record 25 whiffs. He allowed one run on a Brayan Rocchio leadoff homer in the sixth, but the other two hits were meaningless singles. He struck out nine and didn’t walk a batter. While the Guardians can stack the lineup with righties, including playoff hero David Fry and a right-handed Jose Ramirez, we’ll see what they can do with look No. 2 at the southpaw.
The Yankees also get their second look at Bibee, who was awful in Game 2. He was upset with the quick hook from Stephen Vogt, but the season felt on the line in that game. He allowed three runs, two earned, as Rocchio dropped a pop up on a windy night, and left with the bases loaded in the second. Smith limited the damage and now Bibee comes back on short rest after throwing just 39 pitches.
It was a crazy ending, but it is not a coincidence that the one Cleveland win in the series came when Matthew Boyd gave them five excellent innings. If Bibee can do that, it puts more pieces into place, but Cleveland’s relievers are gassed and the Yankees are getting a lot of good swings and a lot of good looks at them.
New York is probably the side to take tonight. Cleveland’s season-long resilience has been impressive and they even found a way to tie last night’s game before the ill-fated Clase inning. They’re not going to roll over and that’s enough to keep me off the game. Rodon probably has the advantage over Bibee and the bullpen advantage Cleveland had entering the series has probably melted away with the unsustainably high workload. I just can’t get myself to do it. I don’t blame you if you can.
