MLB Best Bets Today October 5:
Division rivalries are the story of the Division Series Round, as we’ve got three series featuring teams that are very familiar with each other. The Guardians and Tigers are AL Central foes, while the Mets and Phillies battle for NL East supremacy and the Padres and Dodgers had a good regular season battle for the NL West crown and now fight for something even more important.
Baseball begins at 1:08 p.m. ET with the Tigers and Guardians in Cleveland and we’ll roll through the day until about 11:30 p.m. ET when Padres/Dodgers should be wrapping up. Every pitch is intense and every atmosphere should be outstanding as we get four Game 1s on Saturday, one of two days we’ll have all four series in play during this round.
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I’ll be previewing every game through the playoffs, but won’t necessarily have a bet on all of them.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 5:
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (-148, 7)
1:08 p.m. ET (TBS)
The Tigers will look to use the recipe that worked in Game 2 against the Astros by going with Tyler Holton and then a bullpen game. I don’t know if we’ll see Reese Olson here or not, as he wasn’t used in that game versus Houston, but is still a valuable and viable pitching option. The left-handed Holton followed by a right-handed Olson does make sense, though.
Holton, who had a 2.19 ERA with a 2.75 xERA and a 3.17 FIP in 94.1 innings, including nine starts, threw 1.1 scoreless innings against the Astros before 6-foot-5 right-hander Brenan Hanifee took over. He had a 1.84 ERA with a 2.99 xERA and a 3.10 FIP in 21 appearances at the MLB level during the regular season. He followed Holton with 1.1 scoreless of his own.
There are a few reasons why this strategy is effective – different arm angles, different stuff profiles, etc., but the biggest reason it might be effective against Cleveland is because of how manager Stephen Vogt leverages platoon advantages. A platoon advantage is when you can use a right-handed hitter against a left-handed pitcher or a left-handed hitter against a right-handed pitcher to increase your chances and probability of good outcomes. The Guardians had the highest Platoon% by a huge margin at 71.6%. The Orioles were next at 66.6%.
So, by mixing and matching, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch forces Vogt into some pinch-hitting decisions early. For example, righty David Fry is batting second, a spot that has recently been held by lefty Kyle Manzardo. In theory, the second time through, Vogt will go to Manzardo against a righty, if one is on the mound, but the Tigers have two other lefties in the pen that they can deploy.
This series is a real chess match between two great skippers, one who has been there and done that, albeit with the Astros, and one who has not. Part of that chess match is knowing when to pull a starter and Vogt has been very mindful of that with all of his guys, especially Tanner Bibee.
Bibee posted a 3.47 ERA with a 3.80 xERA and a 3.56 FIP. He finished the season with a strong K/BB ratio and over a strikeout per inning after falling just short of that last season. Because he throws a lot of strikes, Bibee can sometimes be susceptible to the long ball and gave up 22 in 173.2 innings after giving up 13 in 142 last year. He was better in the second half than he was in the first half, except for nine homers allowed in 68.2 innings.
The Guardians bullpen is elite. As I wrote about in my series preview, this is the fourth-best reliever ERA in the 2000s. They are exceptional and Vogt has deployed them in an optimal fashion.
My lean on this one is to the Under, as the Tigers will mix and match all day and Bibee will leverage only his best pitches against the Detroit lineup in hopes of finding some success. The bullpen should shut it down after that and Nick Sandlin is not being carried on the playoff roster. He has way too high of a Barrel% to be a high-leverage reliever and most every spot at this time of the year is high leverage.
So, that’s a lean, but no official play from me, other than Over 4.5 mild heart attacks for this diehard Guardians fan.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-185, 7)
4:08 p.m. ET (FS1)
This game features one of the most fascinating developments I have ever seen in a playoff series. Kodai Senga, who made all of one start this season after missing the first half and then some with a shoulder injury, gets the start for the Mets. Senga had one outing against the Braves and looked great, but then suffered a calf injury on his final plate appearance of the game that knocked him out for the remainder of the regular season.
Senga pitched exactly one minor league inning after the injury. So, I have no idea how long he’ll be able to go in this game or what to expect from him. While he is a great pitcher, and presumed starter Tylor Megill will likely follow him, this is about as stunning of a Game 1 call as I have ever seen.
I don’t even know how to handicap it, if we’re being honest. I would guess Senga is somewhere around 30-40 pitches at most, so what is that? An inning? Two? Three? How many up-downs are the Mets willing to do with him?
I think the handicap here hinges more on Megill and the collection of relievers that will be sent out there. Megill is a different look following Senga, as he stands 6-foot-7. Obviously the Phillies as a division rival are familiar with him, though. He had a 4.04 ERA with a 4.22 xERA and a 3.55 FIP in 78 innings of work. He can be erratic, but he also did a good job of limiting the long ball for the first time in his career. I also think deploying him in relief for a short burst elevates his 96 mph fastball and I do like the promise of that.
Friday’s off day was a big one for the Mets because Edwin Diaz threw 39 pitches on Thursday. He should be fine to use now and all of the team’s arms are available. They also just got 100 pitches out of Megill on Monday, so he can absolutely provide some length if he’s going well.
The Phillies are sending out playoff stud Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has a 2.42 ERA with a 2.72 FIP in his 63.1 career playoff innings. He had a 2.57 ERA with a 2.81 xERA and a 3.13 FIP in 200 innings during the regular season this year. That was actually the lowest ERA and second-lowest xERA and FIP of his career. Even at age 34, he’s still rolling right along. Wheeler actually had his second-best season from a K% standpoint and I would fully expect that he’s locked in against the Mets.
The bullpen is what you worry about, though. They were 18th in ERA and 23rd in FIP in the second half. As I wrote about in my series preview, the Phillies have been a .500 team for about three months now. The Mets won their way into the playoffs and then pulled off a miracle in Game 3 against the Brewers to get to this point.
The one constant is that the Phillies have hit. They’ve been a top-10 offense by wOBA every month in the second half and sixth overall in that split.
It’s a little rich to lay this price with Wheeler and the Phillies with the long layoff, which I can’t help but think about with all four home favorites.
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees (-205, 7.5)
6:38 p.m. ET (TBS)
The Royals and Yankees start things off with Michael Wacha against Gerrit Cole. Cole and the Yankees are the biggest Game 1 favorite and the biggest series favorite, as Wacha gets the nod over Cole Ragans. That’s not to say that a Game 1 Ragans start would have made an enormous difference in the series price, but it obviously would have had an impact on the Game 1 number.
Wacha had a 3.35 ERA with a 4.05 xERA and a 3.65 FIP in 166.2 innings of work. The biggest positives for him, which also apply to Ragans and Seth Lugo, Wacha is stingy with walks and home runs. Basically, the Royals adopted a pitch-to-contact strategy to utilize a strong defense behind the hurler. Wacha is a perfect example of that, as he had an 8.5% HR/FB% and a 6.6% BB%. Lugo, Ragans, and Wacha were all in the top five among pitchers with at least 160 innings in HR/FB%.
Limiting walks and home runs helps against any team, but being able to potentially neutralize Aaron Judge and Juan Soto would obviously give the Royals a much better chance in this game and in this series.
The issue is that KC’s offense is likely to be limited almost no matter what. They beat the Orioles in the Wild Card by scoring three combined runs. They were the worst offense in baseball by a mile. Kansas City was 14 points behind everybody in wOBA and 12 points behind everybody in wRC+, finishing 39% below average for the month. They were tied for last in home runs.
It took some time for Cole to get his season going. He finished with a 3.41 ERA and a 3.69 FIP in 95 innings of work. Over his last 60 innings, though, he had a 2.25 ERA with a 2.62 FIP in 10 starts. He had a 61/17 K/BB ratio and also only allowed two home runs.
I like the promise and potential of Wacha, but it is a small ballpark and he had some interesting splits between lefties and righties. Righties had a 45.8% GB% and a 36.4% FB%. Lefties had a 31.7% GB and a 46.3% FB. Lefties also hit more line drives, so they elevated the baseball at a much higher rate than righties. Given the short porch in RF, that seems a little concerning.
However, lefties only batted .191 with a .196 xBA and a .309 SLG against Wacha’s changeup, which is a pitch that he leverages over 30% of the time. The Yankees ranked 19th in Batting Runs on changeups and were actually 26th in batting average on changeups at .219.
I do like the Under 7.5 here. Cole should shut down KC’s offense and Wacha is actually a better matchup against New York than I think people expect. He also has the benefit of a terrific defense behind him that led the league in Outs Above Average.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-108)
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-135, 7.5)
8:38 p.m. ET (FS1)
This one will be a battle between Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who gets the Game 1 call after many, myself included, expected Jack Flaherty to be the guy. Perhaps the Dodgers feel like Yamamoto can stand up against Cease and Flaherty gives them a Game 2 advantage against Yu Darvish.
The irony is that Darvish and Yamamoto are in pretty similar boats. Yamamoto only made four starts to finish out the season after missing nearly three months with a shoulder injury. He allowed seven runs, six earned, on 16 hits over 16 innings of work. He struck out 21 and walked five, so he looked good in his return. He faced the Cubs, Braves, and Rockies twice.
Prior to the injury, Yamamoto worked around a Hard Hit% over 43% to post a 2.92 ERA with a 2.68 FIP with 84 strikeouts against just 17 walks. The raw stuff is really good and a lot of the hard-hit contact was on the ground, as he only allowed six home runs over 74 innings. Perhaps 16 innings were enough to get him back in the saddle. I’m still a tad skeptical.
Cease finished the regular season with a 3.47 ERA and a 3.10 FIP over his 189.1 innings of work. Furthermore, he was much better in the second half, holding the opposition to a .243 wOBA with a 2.66 ERA over 74.1 innings. He also only allowed three home runs compared to 15 in 115 innings in the first half.
The one worry you get with Cease is that he’s had four seasons with a BB% north of 10%. In his first season with San Diego, he had a career-best 8.5% BB%. Ruben Niebla did some fine work and I do think that pitching in a really friendly park had something to do with it. He had a 6.7% BB% at home and a 10% BB% on the road.
And that’s what I’m looking at here in this game. Cease actually had a 12% BB% on the road over his final 48 innings, all coming in the second half. His Walks Allowed prop is Over 2.5 at +110. The line is a little bit depressed because everybody knows that the Dodgers are one of the most patient lineups in the league. They were third with a 9.6% BB% for the season and had a 9.2% BB% in the second half.
As far as a side goes here, I think the Padres are crisper for the most part and lean that way. The bye can be a blessing and a curse, in that we saw three upsets in the Wild Card Round and teams with byes avoid that potential. But, I’d rather look at the Cease prop than play the side or total.
Pick: Dylan Cease Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+110)
