MLB schedule today has 4 games
All eight remaining MLB playoff teams are in action on Saturday, as we’ll have a full day of baseball, beginning with the Rangers and Orioles at 1 p.m ET and then moving on to the Twins and Astros at 4:45. The two NL series round out the day with Phillies/Braves at 6 and Diamondbacks/Dodgers at 9:20.
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Teams were rather late to post pitching probables for some reason, as I’m sure that they knew what their plans were going to be. But, there is some gamesmanship (I guess) involved, even though it is very easy to find all you need to know about each pitcher, either with internal scouting reports and proprietary data or stuff publicly available.
For more on each of the series, check out my previews and be sure to check out VSiN Daily Baseball Bets seven days a week.
I will do the podcast every day during the playoffs, but only write articles for series previews and on days with games.
Rangers/Orioles | Twins/Astros | Phillies/Braves | Diamondbacks/Dodgers
Latest MLB betting splits | MLB odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
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VSiN Daily Baseball Bets will be out shortly.
Here are some thoughts on the October 7 card (odds from DraftKings):
(odds as of 11:30 p.m. PT)
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles (-148, 8)
The ALDS will start with Kyle Bradish and Andrew Heaney, as the Orioles turn to their No. 1 starter and the Rangers turn to a bit of a surprise starter. With Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi pitching against the Rays in the Wild Card Round, the Rangers will look to Heaney, whose southpaw stylings may play well at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The O’s will go with their ace, who may be one of the most underappreciated pitchers in baseball.
I can’t help but wonder if the plan here is to go with Heaney and use a piggyback with Dane Dunning. Dunning could be the Game 4 starter, but he’d have plenty of time to be fine if he were to come into the game in relief here.
Heaney, who had a 4.15 ERA with a 4.48 xERA and a 4.66 FIP, gave up six runs to Cleveland in just two innings back on September 15, but did not allow an earned run in his final 9.1 innings. I think the Rangers were unsure of how to use him, especially since he wasn’t really showing the ability to turn a lineup over for a second time. He did go 4.1 innings in his final start of the regular season against the Mariners, so maybe the Rangers took something from that.
Dunning was incredible in his last two regular season starts. He went seven shutout innings against the Angels on the 27th and then came back on three days’ rest to start against the Mariners on a day where the division hung in the balance. Dunning went 3.1 innings and allowed one run on four hits, but the Texas offense got shut out by Geroge Kirby & Co. in a 1-0 loss. Eventually, the Rangers would lose the division to the Astros and get sent to Tampa.
Dunning comes in having had a 3.70 ERA with a 4.45 xERA and a 4.27 FIP in 172.2 innings of work. I’ve looked at him as a regression candidate for most of the season, but he ended with a .288 BABIP and a 77.5% LOB%, so the final numbers weren’t as bad as my crusade against him would indicate. A lot of that has to do with the nine-run start he had on September 5 against Houston, though. He did go from a 2.84 ERA in the first half to a 4.69 ERA in the second half, allowing 14 homers in 80.2 innings after surrendering just six HR in 92 first-half innings.
The Orioles were 13th in wOBA and had a 116 wRC+ against lefties over the final two months of the regular season, while also being 13th in wOBA against righties, but they had a 105 wRC+ in that split. I’m still a bit surprised to see Heaney get the start, but the Rangers seem to have a method to the madness.
Bradish finished the regular season with a 2.83 ERA, 3.79 xERA, and a 3.27 FIP over 168.2 innings of work. The right-hander still made 30 starts, even after missing 16 days in April. He only went two innings in his final tune-up and faced seven batters, but struck out five of them.
Since the start of June, Bradish has a 2.45 ERA with a 2.94 FIP. He’s got well over a strikeout per inning and has only allowed nine home runs. He’s been a real workhorse for the O’s as well, going at least six innings in eight straight starts prior to that last one, where he was out there to stay on his routine and stay as sharp as possible.
Like all of the home teams on Saturday, I have concerns about how sharp Baltimore will be. Bradish is basically on regular rest, but the lineup has not really been out there, other than taking BP. It is a long layoff to sit around for five days, as that’s something that simply doesn’t happen during the MLB season. Also, even with a team like Baltimore that hasn’t made the playoffs a lot, all four teams with byes are going through this to some degree because this playoff format is so new.
What I’m most worried about with these teams is the bullpen. Relievers are definitely not used to being idle for long stretches of time. Given how hard the O’s pen worked this season, along with the loss of Felix Bautista, I won’t call rest a bad thing, per se, but you definitely worry about the sharpness of their stuff and command.
This one is a pass for me.
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros (-155, 7.5)
Justin Verlander being named the Game 1 starter was slightly surprising to me, but Framber Valdez did not have a very good second half, so Dusty Baker and the front office had a choice to make. They’ve opted to go with the veteran Verlander, while the Twins will go with Bailey Ober after using Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray in the Wild Card Round.
Verlander wrapped up another good regular season with a 3.22 ERA, 3.66 xERA, and a 3.85 FIP, but it wasn’t the sort of year that we’re used to seeing from him. His 21.5% K% was the lowest he has had since 2015 when he was a member of the Tigers. Verlander was always a solid pitcher, but his career really took off with his first stint in Houston. In his return, he pitched very well with a 3.31 ERA and a 3.92 FIP, but his K% only marginally increased.
He’s not the same dominant, strikeout-per-inning guy, but he’s still very effective with elite fastball command and that hammer curveball. That being said, his Hard Hit% was 43.1% in 202 batted ball events with the Astros and his Barrel% of 11.9% was rather ugly. He allowed 24 barrels in 202 BBE with Houston after allowing 28 all season long in 446 BBE last year.
What makes this start really fascinating to me is that Verlander will give up the long ball as a fly ball guy. Honestly, with 39 barrels allowed this season, I would have expected more than 18 homers, so he’s fallen on the right side of variance. But, the Twins strike out and strike out a lot. They led the league in strikeouts with 1,654, which was 51 more than any other team. Minnesota’s whiff prowess could give Verlander a boost in the K% department.
On the other hand, the Twins hit 233 homers, which tied for the third-most. If they are able to square up the balls that they do make contact with, then they can create some offense. But, Minnesota only had two extra-base hits against Toronto in two games and both were Royce Lewis homers in Game 1. They didn’t manufacture many run-scoring opportunities, so I’ll be curious to see if they fare better with that here.
Going with Ober over Joe Ryan had to be a very tough decision. Ryan, outside of a seven-start stretch in which he had an ERA over 8.00 and allowed 17 home runs in 32.1 innings, was pretty good, but you can’t ignore that and he did not pitch well coming into the postseason. On the flip side, Ober, who had a 3.43 ERA and a 3.96 FIP over 144.1 innings, has only allowed more than two runs in a start once since August 9.
The 6-foot-9 right-hander also gave up 22 homers and tilts to the fly ball side and had reverse platoon splits. What that means is that the right-handed Ober had less success against right-handed batters than left-handed ones, as righties batted .236/.278/.457 with 16 of the 22 homers that he allowed. Lefties only batted .228/.280/.349. I do think that Ober, between lesser damage from righties and better road splits, is a better call in Game 1 than Ryan, but it isn’t the most cut-and-dry of decisions.
What the Twins really need to do is just try to fight through Game 1 and then put their two best arms out there for Games 2 and 3 with Lopez and Gray available once again.
I don’t have a bet here either way. I think the Astros may be a tad light on the price, given the reverse platoon splits for Ober and the fact that the Twins are already a low-average, high-strikeout lineup going against a guy in Verlander who still has swing and miss upside, albeit maybe not as much, and has cut down on the long ball over the last two seasons. I’m just not willing to lay the price.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-205, 8.5)
With Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola unavailable, the Phillies will turn to Ranger Suarez as their Game 1 starter in this one. The Braves will send out ace Spencer Strider, as one of the more obvious pitching decisions that they will make. I do wonder if maybe throwing Fried against the “lesser” pitcher in Suarez to line Strider up with Wheeler would have made sense, but Fried threw about 75 pitches in a sim game on Tuesday, which would line him up to pitch on Monday, not Saturday.
In any event, even though Suarez is left-handed against this uber-dangerous Atlanta offense that led the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties during the season, I think we’ll see a lot of Philly interest here and for the series.
First off, there is a bias against Strider. He finished the regular season with a 3.02 xERA and a 2.85 FIP, but his 3.86 ERA was high enough to make the Cy Young a runaway for Blake Snell. A lot of people are using Strider as an example of how to downplay advanced stats and talk about how those metrics and that form of player evaluation are ruining the game.
It is true that Strider had a 5.67 ERA over his final six starts. It is true that he allowed four or more runs in three of them. It is true that the narrative will really take off running if he struggles here in this game. What is also true is that he had a 58.8% LOB% and that shouldn’t happen with 45 K in 33.1 innings. What is also true is that his 40.7% Hard Hit% was a little on the high side, but his 3.5% Barrel% was spectacular.
I am NOT a pitcher vs. team stats guy. The sample sizes aren’t big enough, players adjust, etc., but in that six-start stretch, Strider faced the Phillies twice and allowed four runs on eight hits in 14 innings with 20 strikeouts out of 52 batters faced and just two walks. More often than not, a guy with Strider’s stuff and strikeout upside will pitch really well. I’m not letting the 3.86 ERA or his last six starts cloud my judgment. There are a lot of reasons why guys “pitch bad” and sometimes negative variance can be one of them.
The other is that a lot of people have been saying for a long time that the Phillies will be the team to trip up the Braves. It is entirely possible. Atlanta’s rotation is pretty suspect beyond Strider and people will look to ride that wave into Game 1.
Look, I like Suarez. He’s a solid, slightly better-than-average pitcher. He had a 4.18 ERA with a 4.36 xERA and a 3.90 FIP during the regular season. He’s really good at home run avoidance and has typically tilted heavily towards the ground ball side. If you are a lefty going against the Braves, that’s what you hope for. Suarez worked 125 innings with a 48.5% GB% and bumped his K% from 19.5% to 22% from last season. He’s also good in the contact management departments.
Selfishly, my hope, as I talked about on the podcast, is for the Phillies to lose Game 1 so I can play a bigger series price in Game 2, where I think two Wheeler starts and a Nola start just might give them the edge. Do the Phillies have a chance to win Game 1? Absolutely. Is it bigger than what the line implies? It could be. I would say there is more pressure on Atlanta to not screw up like they did last season and the Phillies are playing somewhat free and easy, even with the stakes.
Tough handicap. I can’t hate on anybody for taking a Phillies price at this size. It just won’t be me. I’m still holding out hope for that Phillies plus-money series bet heading into Game 2.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-198, 8)
This is the only pitching matchup that we knew well in advance, as Clayton Kershaw makes his 32nd career postseason start and Merrill Kelly makes his first. The Diamondbacks were really fortunate to win the Wild Card series in two games so that they could use Kelly here, since the rotation really drops off after Kelly and Zac Gallen. If this is a long series, they’ll get two Kelly starts and two Gallen starts based on the way the NLDS schedule is set up.
As I wrote about in my series preview, I am not expecting a long series here, but crazier things have happened and the Diamondbacks have been scrappy all season long. Kelly’s performance has been one of the most unsung of the season, as the Arizona rotation is quite poor behind him. He’s got a 3.29 ERA with a 4.10 xERA and a 3.85 FIP. Kelly came back on July 25 from a blood clot in his calf and mostly picked up where he had left off with a 3.38 ERA and a 3.87 FIP. He allowed seven runs twice in a start, but did not allow more than three runs in any other start. One of those seven-run outings did come against the Dodgers. Again, I’m not a team vs. pitcher stats guy. Just presenting the facts. (he also threw six shutout against LAD 20 days prior)
I am concerned that Kelly allowed a 51.6% Hard Hit% over his final four starts and 11 runs on 18 hits. He didn’t locate very well and actually had a velocity drop in mid-September that seemed to be mechanical in nature because it was corrected by his final start against Houston at home. Nevertheless, he just strikes me as a guy who sometimes doesn’t have the margin for error that other guys have.
His SwStr% shot up to 12% this season after sitting in the high 9s for most of his career. That’s the power of Brent Strom, but he is a guy that sometimes has walk issues pop up. But, he’s pitched well since really refining his arsenal and we’ll see if he can pitch well here on an extended layoff after throwing seven outstanding innings in a losing effort against the Astros in his final regular season start with one run on five hits. He’s only allowed four runs on 12 hits in his last three starts.
Kershaw finished the regular season with a 2.46 ERA, 3.79 xERA, and a 4.03 FIP, as he once again pitched through injury. His shoulder injury seemingly cannot be fixed based on all of the comments from manager Dave Roberts and it’s just about pain management at this point. Since returning on August 10, Kershaw has allowed nine runs on 24 hits in 36.1 innings. He’s given up seven homers and walked 16 with only 32 strikeouts. He’s also allowed a good bit of hard contact, but pitched around it thanks to a .193 BABIP and a 100% LOB%.
In 95 batted ball events over those final eight starts, Kershaw allowed a 45.3% Hard Hit% and a 12.6% Barrel%, so he was definitely not sharp, even though the results wound up being pretty kind. The D-Backs were not great during the season against lefties, grading as a bottom-10 offense. Kershaw is not the pitcher he once was and many wonder if this will be it for him. He got his 200th win. He is 56 strikeouts short of 3,000, so maybe that’s a goal next season, but he allowed 19 homers in 131.2 innings and the stuff just isn’t as explosive as it used to be.
The one thing that really helps Kershaw here is that he’s the best Dodger at controlling the running game and I do think that the Diamondbacks will try to be aggressive. Kershaw has only allowed 85 stolen bases in his entire career, which dates back to 2008.
I lean very slightly towards the Over 8, given that Kershaw may see a correction to all that hard contact and because this is a huge spot for Kelly in his first game with some walk rate concerns, but all in all, I don’t have a play for any of the Game 1s that I like.
TL;DR Recap
No bets.
