MLB Best Bets Today April 10:
It is a very condensed slate in the Major Leagues today, as we only have six games on the docket and some early-afternoon starts. Lots of getaway day action, as is often the case on Thursdays. While the lighter slate is nice in that there are only 12 starting pitchers and lineups to evaluate, it also means that the betting options aren’t as plentiful.
Keep in mind that sometimes the lineups look a bit different for these getaway day games as well, as catchers may not play a day game after a night game or some other guys may DH instead of playing the field, stuff like that.
Top MLB Resources:
With stormy weather in the forecast tonight in Atlanta, we may not get a late game, depending on where the weather goes. Could be a tough one.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 10:
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (-112, 9)
4:10 p.m. ET
With a dynamite pitching matchup scheduled for the late game between Jesus Luzardo and Spencer Schwellenbach, plus the aforementioned chance of a rainout or a delay that knocks one or both starters out, it was tough to find something to play today.
But, I found something and it centers on the slumbering Boston offense against Chris Bassitt. The Red Sox have only scored four runs over the first three games of this series against the Blue Jays, as they have not shown well in the xBA department or in a lot of other key metrics, including strikeouts. However, in doing a deep dive on Bassitt, I’m not sure his super impressive start to the season is sustainable.
First of all, Fenway is a bad place to pitch when you have platoon splits one way or the other. Even with a good start so far, lefties own a .286/.310/.464 slash with a .335 wOBA against Bassitt to this point. My guess is that the Red Sox have six of them in the lineup. Bassitt yielded a .305/.392/.485 slash with a .381 wOBA to lefties last season.
This year’s separator has been better sinker command. Bassitt has historically had a good one, but last season was a rough one on that front, as he allowed a .326 BA with a .422 SLG and a .382 wOBA on that pitch. He allowed a 41.2% Hard Hit% on the sinker. Well, this season, with a Hard Hit% against of 58.3% on it so far, he’s had much better results. He’s been working the edges more and the pitch definitely has livelier movement.
Still, I don’t see any material changes to his pitch usage. He’s just commanding better. He did have a velo drop from his first start inside at Rogers Centre to his second start outside at Citi Field. It won’t be miserable in Beantown today, but it will be a little chilly for the 36-year-old. Also, for what it’s worth, Bassitt has thrown nearly 200 pitches over his two starts and this will be his first outing on the traditional four days rest.
I’ll take a stab on Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs at +124. I thought about the full game, but it is a getaway day, so that could mean some early-count swings. I’m just not expecting Bassitt to sustain his current pace for a long duration.
Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+124)
