MLB Best Bets Today April 18
The Junior Circuit plays early and the Senior Circuit plays late on Thursday, as we only have five MLB games on the schedule for April 18. All three AL games start in the 1 p.m. ET hour and both NL games are late, with a game under the lights at Wrigley Field and a late game at Oracle Park. Rain does threaten Marlins/Cubs, so hopefully we’ll get both games in tonight.
Catch a new edition of the Double Play Podcast with myself and Dustin Swedelson today and be sure to check out all of our MLB betting resources and tools linked below.
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Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds are current from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best odds, check out the Tracking Sheet.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 18:
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-166, 8)
9:45 p.m. ET
The pickings are quite slim today with just five games and three early starts that don’t really give the article enough lead time to be fair to readers. But, I’ll look to take a chance on a plus-money player prop and look at Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts in today’s outing against the Diamondbacks.
Webb has 17 strikeouts out of 100 batters faced this season. He has gone over this number twice in four starts, but he’s not generating many swings and misses right now. Over the last three starts, his SwStr% are 4.2%, 3.5% and 5.2%. In two of those four starts, his O-Swing% (Chase Rate) is under 21% per Statcast. He’s found a lot of success pitching to contact with his ground ball ways.
Webb’s primary pitch last season and this season has been the changeup. Last year’s CH had a Whiff% of 22.8% This year’s has a Whiff% of 7.9%. His sinker does have more horizontal movement and has generated a higher Whiff% this season, but I don’t know if that’s a fully sustainable trend, as sinkers are rarely swing-and-miss pitches.
The other thing here is that he’s facing the Diamondbacks. Per Sports Info Solutions, Arizona has the second-lowest SwStr% at just 8.8%. They have the sixth-lowest Chase Rate at 28.8%, but also rank fifth in O-Contact% at 67.3%, so even when they’re swinging at pitches outside the zone, they’re still making a high rate of contact. Per SIS, they are also second in Z-Contact% at 88.4%.
The Snakes are tops in the league in terms of K% at 17%, so they do a really good job of avoiding strikeouts. In two starts against the Padres, who rank fourth in K% at 19%, Webb has eight strikeouts out of 53 batters faced. He had five in his Opening Day start and three in his second start for a 15.1% K%.
I think the Diamondbacks will make a lot of contact and put balls in play. At plus money, this prop is worth a shot given Arizona’s familiarity with Webb and the fact that it seems like he isn’t even really trying to generate whiffs right now, as he’s looking to be more efficient with his pitches to provide length for a rotation that has some major questions about that right now.
Pick: Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
