MLB Best Bets Today August 22:
By Thursday standards, we have a busy day on August 22 around Major League Baseball. Ten games are on the slate, including five early starts. The finale in the Bronx between the Guardians and Yankees in the battle for the best record in the AL is one of those early games, along with the conclusion of what has been an interesting series in St. Louis with some late drama.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 22:
New York Mets at San Diego Padres (-162, 7)
9:40 p.m. ET
The Mets had a happy flight out to San Diego for Thursday’s series opener against the Padres. The listed starters are Luis Severino and Dylan Cease after the Mets hit back-to-back walk-off homers to finish off their homestand. The Padres continue to play well and have a chance to cut a half-game off the lead of the idle Dodgers.
My focus in this game is actually on Severino. He’s coming off of a 113-pitch complete game against the Marlins and he’s going on the more traditional four days rest. His Outs Recorded prop is 17.5 with heavy vig on the Over. His last start against Miami was the first time in five starts that he went more than five innings.
Severino has been more of a workhorse than I expected and he’s gone six or more innings quite often, but he has struggled after throwing 100+ pitches. He’s done it four times this season (4/29, 5/25, 6/13, 6/23) and in the next start, he’s allowed four, five, six, and four runs. He’s gone at least six innings in two of those four starts, which is what he would need to go Over the total here, but he hasn’t pitched well.
But, I really like this Padres offense and could envision a scenario in which he struggles here. Managers don’t love to blow up the bullpen in Game 1 of a four-game series, but the bullpen is really fresh and every game is important for the Mets, so early bumps in the road for Severino could lead to an early exit.
Also, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he was having short outings after the All-Star Break and to start August. He’s thrown 142.2 innings, the most he’s thrown in a season since 2018. With +140 on the Under 17.5 at DK, I think this one’s very much worth a shot.
Pick: Luis Severino Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+140)
