MLB Best Bets Today July 3

Ten games are on the MLB schedule for Thursday. Fortunately for us, most of them are night games, so we have some time to dig through the data and seek out some good bets for the July 3 card. There aren’t a whole lot of noteworthy names set to take the mound this evening, but there are a few here and there and some others that will take a little bit more research to evaluate.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 3:

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs (-144, 8.5)

8:05 p.m. ET

Joey Cantillo gets the spot start here for Cleveland because Luis L. Ortiz is under investigation by MLB for allegations of gambling. So, Cantillo gets called into action on short notice, but this should be a decent spot for the Guardians offense going up against Cade Horton.

For starters, Horton is the first right-handed starter that they’ve seen since Saturday. That means they’ll be able to have Daniel Schneemann and Kyle Manzardo in the lineup, who have been two of their better hitters throughout the course of the season, even though they have certainly been streaky. It also means that guys like David Fry and maybe even Lane Thomas will be sent to the bench, as they’ve been lifeless against lefties for the most part this season.

Horton comes in with a 4.80 ERA, 4.75 xERA, and a 4.56 FIP in 45 innings of work. He has a low K% despite a pretty good SwStr% and has allowed a 43.6% Hard Hit% and a 12.1% Barrel%. He’s a guy that the Guardians should be able to get some better swings off of, as he’s primarily a fastball/slider guy. Cleveland has not graded well against fastballs or sliders on the whole this season, but Horton is hittable and this is a favorable offensive park.

Cantillo owns a 3.81 ERA with a 4.15 xERA and a 4.33 FIP at the MLB level this season over 21 appearances, mostly in low leverage. He was stretched out a little bit as a starter down in the minors, but this will be a Johnny Wholestaff type of game for Cleveland. Their primary relievers, like Tim Herrin and Hunter Gaddis, have had their issues, but they also haven’t been able to get consistent work with how the team has been pitching. They know their names should get called today, barring another lopsided loss.

The Cardinals come to town for the holiday weekend, and a 1:20 local time first pitch tomorrow, so maybe there’s a bit of a lookahead spot for the Cubs with the lowly Guardians standing in the way of that division rivalry. Cleveland finally showed a little bit of fight last night in trying to come back. I think they’ve got a good shot tonight.

Pick: Guardians +118

Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (-295, 9)

10:10 p.m. ET

Aaron Civale requested a trade from the Brewers after being informed that he was losing his spot in the rotation. And the Brewers sent him to Chicago. Be careful what you wish for. In three starts thus far for the White Sox, Civale has allowed eight runs on 18 hits in 16 innings of work with seven walks and 10 strikeouts.

The most notable thing for Civale going from the Brewers to the White Sox, aside from going from a playoff contender to a doormat, is that he went from one of the best fielding teams in baseball to one of the worst. By Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, the Brewers are second in baseball with +19 OAA. The White Sox are 27th with -17 OAA.

Civale has allowed 6, 9, and 3 hits in his three White Sox starts. He only lasted four innings in his last start against the Giants and walked four. Now he takes on a much better Dodgers lineup and one that should feast on a pitch-to-contact guy like Civale. The four walks in two of his White Sox starts are largely an anomaly, as he hadn’t walked more than two in his five starts with the Brewers. So, I think we see the Dodgers put a lot of balls in play here and have success doing so.

Pick: Aaron Civale (CWS) Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110)