MLB schedule today has 10 games
We’ve got 10 games on the Thursday card, including three early starts, a midday matinee and six night games. It’s been an interesting week with a lot of interleague series, but we’ve got just three of those games here on June 15 and they are all series finales as we inch closer to the weekend.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 15 card (odds from DraftKings):
Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 9) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks got the game to extra innings after trailing much of the evening yesterday, but were unable to tie the game in the 10th after a crucial error led to Philly’s game-winning run. They’ll look to get back in the win column today, but have to do it as a home underdog because Aaron Nola is on the hill for the Phillies.
Arizona will counter with Ryne Nelson, who has a 4.95 ERA with a 4.97 xERA and a 4.67 FIP in his 67.1 innings of work. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy who has bad K/BB rates and a 42% Hard Hit%. There are some weaknesses on the pitching side of this Arizona team and Nelson is one example. He’s allowed 19 hard-hit balls in his last two starts, yet he’s only allowed three runs on 10 hits in 10.1 innings of work. He’s very subject to batted ball luck, as he’s allowed four or more runs five times and one or fewer runs four times. He’s given up three runs in each of his other four starts.
So, this ends up looking like a bit of a tough spot for Arizona, as they don’t have a lot of margin for error against Nola. Fortunately for them, Nola hasn’t really been himself this season, as he has a 4.60 ERA with a 3.78 xERA and a 4.25 FIP. Nola’s K% is down from 29.1% last season to 23.7% this season and down 3.5% from his career average. He’s also allowed 14 homers in 88 innings after allowing just 19 homers in 205 innings last season.
We did get a bit unlucky with yesterday’s play, as Corbin Carroll got a rare day off (but did pinch hit) and Ketel Marte’s back wasn’t good enough to be in the starting lineup, but he pinch hit as well. Carroll should be back, but we’ll see if Marte is good to go. The Diamondbacks may need all hands on deck with Nelson on the bump, seeing as how the Phillies rank third in wOBA for the month of June.
No play from me here, as Nola and the Phillies deserve the favorite role, but he hasn’t been himself this year.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves (-245, 9.5)
After falling short in the bid for a sweep of the Red Sox, the Rockies head down to Atlanta to battle the Braves in a four-game weekend set. Kyle Freeland gets the call for Colorado here and rookie AJ Smith-Shawver will go for the heavy favorites. Atlanta is first in wOBA for the month of June and also tied for first in batting average and first in wOBA against lefties this season.
Freeland is having a solid season with a 3.91 ERA, though his 4.59 xERA and 4.79 FIP suggest that some tough times may be headed his way. He’s got a .279 BABIP against because home runs don’t count towards BABIP and he’s allowed 12 of those in 76 innings after giving up just 19 in 174.2 innings last season. He’s got a 73.2% LOB%, which is a bit high for a guy with a 15.7% K%.
As I’ve talked about a lot, the way to neutralize the Braves is to get them to not make contact. Freeland’s low K% and 7.7% SwStr% don’t inspire a lot of confidence for me in this situation. The Braves lead baseball against LHP with that aforementioned .379 wOBA against lefties, but that number grows to .388 when playing in the friendly confines of Truist Park.
The 20-year-old Smith-Shawver has had a meteoric rise to the big leagues, as he just started in pro ball in 2021 with four starts in the Complex League down in Florida and then 17 starts in 2022 at A-ball. He made three starts at High-A, two starts at Double-A, two starts at Triple-A, and then found himself in the big leagues. Over the course of his 2023 season, he has allowed all of four earned runs in 40.2 innings of work across the four levels.
In a start and a relief appearance at the big league level, he’s allowed two unearned runs on three hits with five strikeouts against three walks. As Jeff Zimmermann noted in his weekly “Big Kid Adds” piece at Rotographs, Smith-Shawver has a 6% SwStr% and has thrown 66 fastballs with just two swings and misses. The super advanced pitching metrics don’t love the quality of his stuff, which is understandable given that he’s 20 and hasn’t had a ton of time for refinement.
It is true that through two starts, he’s getting very few chases with a 24.3% O-Swing% per Statcast and a 91.4% Z-Contact%, so hitters are picking out pitches in the zone to hit, but he has limited hard contact, so I’ll give him that. Still, there are some early regression signs in the profile.
The Braves have used five different relievers two of the last three days and were forced to use seven relief arms yesterday in the doubleheader. Closer Raisel Iglesias has thrown 58 pitches in the last two days and primary setup man Nick Anderson has thrown 51. The Rockies have four guys who would be working three times in four days.
I like the Over 9.5 here. It will be warm and exceedingly humid in Atlanta this evening, so it should be a good night for ball flight. Freeland has actually allowed a .504 SLG in his 33.2 road innings this season with eight of his 12 homers. He’s also allowed a 45.2% Hard Hit% in his last five starts, which is a big no-no without the ability to generate swings and misses.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-155, 7)
The Cubs are seeking a sweep of the Pirates in this one, as they’ve scored 21 runs over the first two games of the season. Today, they’ll take their hacks against Johan Oviedo, who comes in with a 4.16 ERA, 4.00 xERA, and a 3.98 FIP over 71.1 innings of work. Since giving up seven runs in back-to-back starts on April 30 and May 6, Oviedo’s been quite good with a 2.62 ERA, but there are a ton of regression signs lurking in the profile.
While he has a 2.62 ERA over his last 34.1 innings, he’s got a 4.21 FIP. His 80.6% LOB% and a .226 BABIP are doing a lot of heavy lifting, especially with 19 walks in that span against just 30 strikeouts. Oviedo’s been better in his last two starts, but he has a 41.1% Hard Hit% in that span, though he has only allowed two home runs. He’s had a single-digit SwStr% in five of those six starts as well.
He has not allowed more than three runs in any of those starts, but he’s building up a pretty big regression balloon that is going to pop at some point soon here.
The Cubbies send Marcus Stroman to the bump here, as he has a 2.42 ERA with a 3.49 FIP in his 85.2 innings of work. He, too, is locked into a nice run with a 1.26 ERA over his last five starts covering 35.2 innings of work. Once again, there are some major regression signs in the profile, as he has an 84.5% LOB% to go with a .181 BABIP against, which is crazy with a 67.4% GB%. Stroman only has 26 strikeouts in that span and has walked 12, but he’s been able to keep the walks from hurting him by only allowing one homer and carrying that absurdly low BABIP.
The total is 7 here because it will be a rather miserable day for baseball. Winds will be blowing in at 15-20 mph and temps are in the upper 50s. The home run suppression characteristics of weather like that don’t really help these two as much as they’d help somebody else, but they also can’t hurt.
I think these two teams will get chances to score. The question is whether or not they get those timely hits. Between the heightened walk rates for both pitchers and all the balls in play, it’s reasonable to think that we could get at least seven runs in this game, in spite of the weather forecast. I’ll take that chance today. I think the weather actually helps us by putting this total at 7, given that neither guy really gives up dingers anyway. The wind may even make fielding a bit of an adventure.
There are even some 7s at even money and even a stray 6.5 thanks to the weather. Shop around as always.
Pick: Over 7 (-110)
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-120, 9)
An early start in Baltimore features Tyler Wells and Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has some really hideous peripherals, as he has a 4.34 ERA, but a 5.28 xERA and a 5.87 FIP over 66.1 innings of work. He’s allowed 18 home runs on the season already, but has an 88% LOB%, so he’s been able to keep his ERA quite a bit lower than his other metrics.
His walk rate is actually quite good at 7.4% and his K% at 22.7% is above the league average for starting pitchers, but those home runs are really hard to ignore. The positive for Kikuchi is that 12 of them have been solo shots, as he’s exhibited quite a bit of Cluster Luck. He’s allowed a .411 wOBA with the bases empty, but a .269 wOBA with men on base and a .274 wOBA with RISP. His control and command somehow get better in key situations, so that’s why his ERA looks semi-respectable.
Wells has a 3.24 ERA with a 3.28 xERA, but a 4.37 FIP. The high FIP is a byproduct of allowing 14 homers in 75 innings pitched, but he has terrific K/BB numbers. He also has a .189 BABIP against and an 83.7% LOB%, so batted ball and sequencing luck have been on his side. He only has a 37.7% Hard Hit%, though he’s allowed 19 barrels and a 9.5% Barrel%, which accounts for the homers he has allowed.
Quietly, he has a double-digit SwStr% and has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in five of his last six starts. The Yankees hit three homers off of him on May 24 and scored five runs, but he also had eight strikeouts in that start.
No play here with an early game, but wanted to give you some background on two guys with really weird statistical profiles.
Tampa Bay Rays (-205, 9) at Oakland Athletics
I guess I should have laid the Rays run line like I talked about, as they came away with a 6-3 decision to snap Oakland’s seven-game winning streak. The series finale is a matinee at the Coliseum with Paul Blackburn on the bump for the A’s and Taj Bradley for the Rays.
Blackburn has made three starts since his return from injury and has thrown the ball well with a 3.60 ERA, 3.55 xERA, and a 3.28 FIP. He’s had two good starts and one bad start, as he’s allowed one run, five runs, and zero runs, with his two most recent starts on the road against the Marlins and Brewers. He threw four shutout innings in his return against Atlanta, which is his only home start.
He’s located well with a 31.1% Hard Hit% on 45 batted balls and has had two starts with a double-digit SwStr%, with the lone exception being the bad start he had in Miami. I’m not sure how he’ll fare in this one against the Rays and also not sure how he’ll do long-term. He was a guy last season that had a 2.15 ERA and a 3.15 FIP over his first 54.1 innings across 10 starts, but then had a 6.32 ERA over his final 11 starts before his season ended in early August due to injury.
This will be Bradley’s sixth start since getting recalled from the minors. Overall, he has a 4.19 ERA with a 2.94 FIP in his 38.2 innings of work. He’s fallen on the wrong side of luck and variance to some degree with a .347 BABIP against and a 67.6% LOB%. However, in his last two starts, he’s allowed a HH% of 57.1% and 63.6% to the Red Sox and Rangers.
Of course, the A’s are not on that talent level and will swing and miss a ton, so Bradley, who has struck out 31.7% of batters faced and has an 11.1% SwStr%, should be able to get some strikeouts today.
No play from me here, but it’s a good test for Blackburn in a favorable pitching environment.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-200, 7.5)
The Twins are having a nice week. On the heels of a five-game losing streak, they’ve won four of the last five, including a mini sweep of the Brewers to send Milwaukee to a sixth straight defeat. The Guardians are off to an ugly start in San Diego and now Minnesota welcomes Detroit to town, while the Guards have one more with the Padres and then go to Arizona to face the NL West-leading D-Backs.
Today’s game looks favorable for Minnesota, as Sonny Gray takes the mound against Matthew Boyd. Gray is having a magnificent season with a 2.25 ERA, 3.57 xERA, and a 2.43 FIP in his 72 innings of work. He has not allowed more than three runs in a start this season. One thing that does concern me a bit, though, is that Gray’s K% is on the decline. He’s only struck out 10 over his last three starts and 20 over his last five starts, but he has faced some pretty good offenses in that span.
Gray’s last five starts have been against the Blue Jays, Guardians, Astros, Giants, and Dodgers. Cleveland’s offense stinks, but the Guardians don’t strike out much. That said, they had 10 hits over 6.2 innings against Gray, but could never get the big hit. In any event, Gray is having a strong season and his strikeout rate still looks good, but some regression signs are leaking in. He has an 81.3% LOB%. I don’t expect the Tigers to fare all that well here, but maybe some better lineups will trip him up soon.
Boyd is left-handed, so that gives him a little more hope against this Minnesota lineup. He’s got a 5.55 ERA with a 4.20 xERA and a 4.70 FIP over his 58.1 innings of work. He’s been rather inconsistent, as he’s allowed five or more runs four times in 12 starts and two or fewer runs in five outings. The Twins are 27th in wOBA against lefties and have a 27.2% K%, so Boyd could be in a decent spot here, but between the peripherals and the home run issue, I’m still finding him hard to trust.
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-125, 8)
The Rangers need to beat Shohei Ohtani to secure a split in what has been a really interesting four-game series to this point. The Angels won 9-6 in 12 innings in Monday’s game and then had a 7-3 victory on Tuesday before dropping a 6-3 decision on Wednesday. This one has far and away the best pitching matchup of the series to this point, but there are some things to watch closely here with Ohtani.
He comes into this one with a 3.32 ERA, 3.35 xERA, and a 4.17 FIP in his 76 innings of work. Last time out, however, we saw an enormous drop in fastball velocity. Per Statcast, Ohtani has a 97.1 mph average fastball velo, but he was at 95.4 mph against the Mariners in his most recent start. He also walked five guys in that start. He only allowed three runs, but did give up another homer and that came on the heels of allowing five runs on eight hits to the Astros two starts ago.
It might be something, it might be nothing, but velocity drops always scare me. We’ve also seen a big decrease in sweeper usage over his last two starts, so I wonder if there’s some discomfort there on the pitching side. His last start featured his highest fastball usage of the season, which is even more concerning because he wasn’t throwing it as hard as usual. This merits watching closely, not only for Ohtani and the Angels, but also for his potential trade, if it gets to that point.
Nathan Eovaldi is having an excellent season. The Rangers right-hander has a 2.49 ERA with a 2.95 xERA and a 2.62 FIP over 86.2 innings of work. He’s got stellar peripherals for the season and will look to build on those here. He’s got a 24.9% K% and a 5.1% BB% on the season, holding the opposition to a .216 batting average. He’s got a .281 BABIP against and a 76.2% LOB%, so nothing is too crazy in those high-variance metrics.
Eovaldi has allowed some hard contact, but he has a 50.9% GB%, so he’s kept the ball on the ground very effectively and has only allowed four homers on the season. It’s tough to score runs against him and I think it will be tough for the Angels today. I also have those concerns about Ohtani’s velocity and his performance in his last two starts. Plus, the decreased sweeper usage worries me, since opposing batters are only hitting .161 against it.
Pick: Rangers -125
Washington Nationals at Houston Astros (-195, 8)
We’ve got a good pitching matchup here with MacKenzie Gore and Cristian Javier, as all three interleague games are late contests. We got some clarity yesterday that Yordan Alvarez will be out four weeks for the Astros, so at least now they can move forward and everybody can try to do a little more until one of the game’s best pure hitters is back in the lineup.
Gore heads into this start with a 4.04 ERA, 4.32 xERA, and a 4.20 FIP in his 69 innings of work. He has hit something of a rough patch lately, though, as he’s allowed eight runs on 13 hits over his last 11 innings and has a 4.71 ERA with a 4.70 FIP in 42 innings since the start of May. He has not been credited as the winning pitcher in any of those eight starts. He’s allowed nine homers in that span, which has been the biggest issue, since his K and BB numbers are actually quite good. Just too many long balls.
Furthermore, too much hard contact overall. He’s allowed a 45.9% Hard Hit% in that span and 16 barrels for a 13.1% Barrel%. He’s allowed a barrel in every one of those eight starts. Even with the high strikeout total and the low walk rate, his lack of command is concerning.
I also wouldn’t expect much from the Nats against Javier today. The right-hander has a 3.13 ERA with a 4.29 xERA and a 3.66 FIP over 74.2 innings of work. He hasn’t struck out as many batters this season as he did last season, but he’s still allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his 13 starts. Javier has a high xERA because his K% is lower than usual, but also because he has allowed 23 barrels and an 11.3% Barrel%. His Hard Hit% on the whole is just 37.3%, but as an extreme fly ball guy, he’s been prone to allowing some barreled balls.
I don’t have any plays here, but Gore’s command is something that I am watching to see if we can exploit it at some point. Between his home run rate and Javier’s extreme fly ball tendencies, there may be some home run props of interest in this game.
Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres (-130, 8.5)
The only game with two left-handed starters is this one, as the Guardians send out Logan Allen in hopes of avoiding a sweep and the Padres counter with Ryan Weathers. I am not a Weathers guy, but let’s talk about Allen first. He gave up five runs on nine hits last time out against the Astros and it feels like the league is starting to adjust to him a little bit.
He doesn’t overpower guys, but relies more on his command and shaving the edges of the strike zone. He doesn’t have that same margin for error that guys with premier velocity have, so that’s something that he’ll have to work on. He still has a 12.4% SwStr% and nearly a strikeout per inning, but his 10-strikeout effort against Baltimore has really made his strikeout stats look better than they’ve actually been over his last seven outings.
Weathers has a 4.93 ERA with a 4.35 xERA and a 5.26 FIP in his 38.1 innings of work this season. He was fast-tracked to the big leagues and I think that hurt his development in a lot of respects. I’m not sure he’s the pitcher that he could be if he had taken a more traditional path to the bigs. Nevertheless, he is what he is and that’s what we need to analyze. He only has a 15.4% K% with a 9.3% BB% on the season and that gets him in trouble.
For the most part, he’s done a good job of limiting hard contact, though, as he has a 30.6% Hard Hit% against and has allowed just seven barrels in 121 batted balls. He’s also not working very deep into games. He just went three innings against the Rockies in his start last time out and gave up one run on three hits. Prior to that, he had allowed 17 runs over his previous four starts.
This is a really tough game to handicap. Cleveland’s offense doesn’t strike out much anyway, so it comes down to the contact quality they make and if they get those key hits. For the most part this season, they have not. San Diego feels like a team ready to go on a run with everybody back and a lot of positive regression coming with RISP, but Weathers just isn’t a guy that I want to invest in.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (-140, 8.5)
The rubber match between the White Sox and Dodgers will finish up this series, as we’ll see Dylan Cease on the hill for the Pale Hose and Michael Grove for Los Angeles. Cease is not having the type of season we would expect from him. He’s got a 4.38 ERA with a 4.47 xERA and a 4.25 FIP In his 74 innings pitched. His walk rate has gone up slightly and his home run is back to his 2021 levels, but what really exacerbates those two things is that his strikeout rate is down considerably.
His K% is down from 30.4% last season to 25% this season, while his BB% is up from 10.4% to 10.5%. After allowing 16 long balls in 184 innings last season, he’s allowed nine in 74 innings this season. His Hard Hit% is a staggering 48% on the year, so Cease has really had problems locating effectively. That said, he does have a 2.94 ERA over his last six starts, but it comes with a 4.17 FIP and an even greater drop in K%.
Guys with walk issues are usually in trouble taking on the Dodgers, so we’ll see if Cease is able to keep them at bay. We’ll also see if Grove can get on track. He’s allowed 23 runs on 32 hits in 25 innings of work. His 50.8% LOB% is a big culprit here, but he’s allowed a lot of hard contact and hasn’t been able to work around it. While Grove only has a 37.8% Hard Hit%, his average exit velocity over his last three starts is 91.3, 91.6, and 93.3 mph, so he’s allowed a lot of balls close to the threshold of 95 mph.
He’s not really missing enough bats to get through the hard-hit stuff, though it is worth noting that he did allow nine runs in 3.1 innings back on April 9 and it’ll take a while to get rid of a start like that. Grove has allowed eight runs on 11 hits in nine innings since getting recalled on June 3.
Tough handicap here, as I think the Dodgers match up well to a degree against Cease and Grove is right-handed, so that’s the weaker split for the White Sox, but I don’t feel comfortable laying the price.
TL;DR Recap
COL/ATL Over 9.5 (-105)
PIT/CHC Over 7 (-110)
Rangers -125
