MLB Best Bets Today May 9
There are only seven games on the MLB card today, including a couple of early starts, with a rare total of 6.5 in Minneapolis between the Mariners and Twins. DraftKings and others have moved back up to 7, but there were some 6.5s at books about 90 minutes before first pitch. Otherwise, we’ve got a pretty normal day in terms of the lines and the totals for today’s games.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 9:
San Francisco Giants (-162, 9.5) at Colorado Rockies
3:10 p.m. ET
I typically like to give more lead time, but we recorded a new edition of the Double Play Podcast this morning and I fought with the rest of the card, but there is a good bet to make in this game in my opinion and it has to do with Giants right-hander Keaton Winn.
Winn is coming off of a brutal outing against the Phillies with five runs allowed on four hits in 0.2 innings. He needed 39 pitches to get two outs, a Nick Castellanos double play, but he struggled with the conditions and the circumstances in that start. It was raining and the game started after a delay, so his routines were all thrown off and grip was hard to find on his splitter.
So, I’m not worried at all about that for a guy who had allowed five runs total in his previous four starts. Winn has been limited to fewer than 90 pitches in every start, so there is a touch of risk involved here, but I like him Over 15.5 Outs Recorded today against the Rockies. This is under the ‘Pitcher Props’ section at DK.
Rather than take Over 4.5 Strikeouts at -130 or attempt a run line with the Giants against Cal Quantrill to cut down on the vig, I’ll go for the plus-money price here with Winn. The Rockies are among the most aggressive teams in baseball with a Swing% of 50.6% per Statcast. They also have the second-highest Chase% at 32%. Only the Marlins are higher and swing more often. Winn went six innings against them back on April 17 in just 81 pitches.
Winn ranks in the 92nd percentile in Chase% per Statcast. He’s also a guy with a 60.6% GB% per Statcast that ranks in the 95th percentile. If the Rockies are going to chase a lot and hit the ball on the ground, it neutralizes many of the concerns about pitching at Coors, like the ball carrying and the huge outfield.
Also, Winn is predominantly a fastball/splitter guy, so he shouldn’t be affected as much by the thin air and the negative effects on pitch movement. I’m also hoping the getaway day factor comes into play a bit here, as you often get quicker games and he should stay in a better rhythm.
This is actually the only play I like for today.
Pick: Keaton Winn (SF) Over 15.5 Outs Record (+110)
