MLB Best Bets Today October 10:
One Championship Series ticket has been punched, as the Mets look to be a team of destiny after Francisco Lindor’s go-ahead grand slam powered a Game 4 win over the Phillies. Another apparent team of destiny, the Tigers, will attempt to clinch their spot by eliminating the Guardians today. We’ll also see Game 4 between the Royals and Yankees, as KC looks to stay alive against Gerrit Cole.
We’ll have to wait until Friday for Padres vs. Dodgers, as the AL games take center stage with later starts today.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 10:
Cleveland Guardians (-122, 6.5) at Detroit Tigers
6:08 p.m. ET
The Guardians have not scored since the sixth inning of Game 1, as all three victories in this series have been shutouts. Stephen Vogt was badly out-managed by A.J. Hinch yesterday, though it may not have mattered that much in the 3-0 loss. Vogt had Kyle Manzardo and Will Brennan in the lineup with right-hander Keider Montero on the mound. Manzardo batted in the first, but was pinch hit for by David Fry. Jhonkensy Noel hit for Brennan in the second, as Brennan never got a plate appearance. Fry and Noel combined to go 0-for-7 with three strikeouts, though Fry did hit the missile down the 3B line that Matt Vierling caught to save at least one run and maybe two.
There will be another chess match today, as the Guardians turn to Tanner Bibee and the Tigers have another bullpen game in advance of a potential Tarik Skubal start in Game 5. Brant Hurter is the only guy not available for the Tigers. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see Montero start again after throwing just six pitches yesterday and a big dose of Tyler Holton. Hinch pantsed Vogt yesterday and it was the first time we’ve really seen Vogt get played like that at any point this season. It was a learning experience for the rookie skipper and we’ll see what happens today.
Cleveland’s biggest issue has come to the forefront in this series. They just don’t make hard contact. Even in the win last Saturday, Cleveland had a xBA of .180. They were at .156 in Game 2 and .254 yesterday, as they had eight hard-hit balls off of the bullpen. None of them were potentially damaging, though, with the exception of Fry’s lineout with an expected BA of .800.
Bibee was effective in Game 1 with six strikeouts and no runs over 4.2 innings, but Vogt will manage this one very aggressively. Bibee had his moments in that start, as he only walked one, but had about a 30-pitch first inning. He fought through it in his first career playoff start and we’ll see if he can keep his emotions in check in his second.
This could be a game with great live betting value, but for now, it’s hard to see how Cleveland really breaks through and scores. The 6.5 total with a TBD starter for the Tigers is indicative of how things have gone here. I don’t have a bet on the game. I just hope my Guardians live to fight another day.
New York Yankees (-155, 7.5) at Kansas City Royals
8:08 p.m. ET
The Royals are in the unenviable position of having to fight for their playoff lives against Gerrit Cole. Cole missed a huge chunk of the season, posting a 3.41 ERA with a 3.59 xERA and a 3.69 FIP over his 95 innings of work. But Cole looked more like himself in the second half with a .202/.268/.308 slash against and a .257 wOBA, while posting a .276 ERA. He struck out 73 and walked 20, so it was what we’ve come to expect from him.
That said, he didn’t look too sharp in Game 1, giving up four runs on seven hits with four strikeouts and a couple of walks. He gave up 11 hard-hit balls and three Barrels. He gave up 3+ Barrels three times in his 17 regular season starts, but the 11 batted balls of 95+ mph were a season high.
Now, you can point towards Cole not having pitched since September 26 in advance of that October 4 start. I think it’s fair to do that. It’s also fair to just say that he didn’t have it and it’ll happen sometimes. The question is whether or not he gets it back here. His velocity was fine, as he threw everything a little harder than his season averages, which is what you expect in the postseason. He only got six whiffs on 43 swings, though, which is not what you would expect.
Michael Wacha had some issues of his own in Game 1. He allowed three runs on four hits over four innings with a 3/3 K/BB ratio. Wacha walked 3+ batters just five times in his 29 starts and had a 6.6% BB%. Wacha, like Cole, hadn’t pitched since 9/26, so, again, you could argue that both guys should be more effective going on their regular turns here. On the other hand, the pressures of playoff pitching and the toll the regular season takes on one’s arm are also factors.
I will lay the price with the Yankees today. The biggest concern for me is that the Royals used six relievers yesterday to try and get through Game 3. The Yankees are just the better offensive team and increased exposure to pitchers that they haven’t seen much becomes a bigger positive for the stronger group. I don’t know that Wacha will find more success and the Yankees should get a better version of Cole.
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Pick: Yankees -155
