MLB Best Bets Today October 17:
Game 3 and Game 4 are coming today in that order, as we get both the ALCS and NLCS on Thursday. It is never a must-win until losing means elimination, but we can all agree that today is a very important day for both the Guardians and Mets. The two series underdogs are up against it and risk being pushed to the brink of elimination on home turf.
Both home teams are plus-money underdogs as well, so let’s see if one or both are worthy of a look and what other bets there are for today’s card.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 17:
New York Yankees (-122, 7) at Cleveland Guardians
5:08 p.m. ET (TBS)
Clarke Schmidt and Matthew Boyd are the listed starters for Game 3 at Progressive Field between the Yankees and Guardians. While this series has been billed as “domination” for the Yankees, who have won the two games by a combined 11-5 count, there have been a ton of self-inflicted wounds for Cleveland and nobody has come up with a big hit.
The Guardians were 0-for-7 with RISP in Game 2 and 1-for-4 in Game 1. The Yankees have put pressure on Cleveland pitching throughout the series, but have also scored multiple runs via errors and wild pitches. So, we’ll see if Cleveland is more composed at home. It sure felt like and looked like they were intimidated playing in the Bronx. And it wasn’t just because of the crowd or the noise or anything like that.
When you play at Yankee Stadium against New York, a team built to take advantage of the short dimensions, playing “Guards Ball” doesn’t work. Winning a 3-2 or 4-2 game there is a tall task for a team like the Guardians. There has to be a stronger sense of confidence going back home, where they don’t have to try to be something that they are not. Of course, look, the Yankees may just be that much better, particularly on offense, and it is what it is.
But, I think we see a different, crisper Cleveland team here in support of Boyd, who has only gone 6.2 innings in his two playoff starts, but has 10 strikeouts against three walks. He’s given up five hits and has been in trouble in most of his innings, hence the quick hooks from manager Stephen Vogt, who has no margin for error due to his offense.
I’ve really liked the depth and quality of Boyd’s stuff in the postseason. The Yankees are clearly a step up from the Tigers, so that is a worry, but Boyd should fill up the zone more than Alex Cobb and Tanner Bibee did. Guardians pitchers haven’t been aggressive enough in the zone and have gotten into negative counts that make it very tough to get hitters out.
New York counters with Clarke Schmidt, who was terrific during the regular season with a 2.85 ERA, 3.75 xERA, and a 3.58 FIP. Schmidt missed extended time in the middle months of the season and went 4.2 innings in his lone playoff start to this point with two runs allowed on four hits. He had over a strikeout per inning and the stuff is good, but he’s not a whiff merchant like Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole. I think Cleveland has a better chance against him.
While Schmidt cut down the platoon advantage this past season, he allowed a .303/.375/.500 slash with a .376 wOBA to lefties in 2023. He’ll likely get eight of them in the lineup to start today’s game, unless Austin Hedges gets the call behind the plate, but both catchers can’t hit, so it may not matter that much.
This is a backs against the wall spot for Cleveland and I like them today. They’ve been missing a key hit or two and the defense has let them down, especially behind the plate. My sense is that they’ll play cleaner today and get themselves back into the series.
Pick: Guardians +102
Los Angeles Dodgers (-135, 7) at New York Mets
8:08 p.m. ET (FOX)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the call today for the Dodgers, who won a very important swing game last night in emphatic fashion. Walker Buehler shined over his four innings with 18 swings and misses and six strikeouts. It took a little while for the Dodger bats to find some insurance, but they ultimately did and, thankfully, pushed the game Over the total.
It was another game where walks came into play, as the Dodgers drew seven and the Mets only mustered four to go with 13 strikeouts. While the Mets did a Bad News Bears impression in the second to plate two runs, the inning did start with a walk and that set it up. The Dodgers also loaded the bases in the third with two walks and that could have been a turning point in the game, but Luis Severino got out of it.
Jose Quintana is not getting much respect from the betting markets here for what he has done lately. He has not allowed an earned run in two postseason starts over 11 innings and allowed just three earned runs over his final six starts covering 36.1 innings. This is the best stretch we’ve seen from him in a long time, but the 88.9% LOB% over those six starts and the 90% LOB% here in the playoffs do not seem very sustainable for a pitch-to-contact guy like him. So, I can understand why the markets are not enamored with backing him against a very potent and productive Dodgers lineup.
Yamamoto is hardly a guarantee. In two playoff starts, he only has three strikeouts of 33 batters with five runs allowed on seven hits. Both of those were against the Padres, as he has not pitched in this series. He only made four starts to get ready for the postseason and allowed seven runs on 16 hits over 16 innings and did strike out 21 batters, but he faced the Rockies twice, Braves, and Cubs. Ironically, his two worst starts were against the Rockies, who were one of the worst offenses in baseball this season.
This one is a tough game to handicap I think. The three games in this series have been wildly different. They’ve all gone Over the total, but at 9-0, 7-3, and 8-0. Yamamoto is a wild card and the Dodgers did have to deploy some of their best pen arms because of how late they got insurance yesterday.
It’ll be a no-play from me here.
