MLB Best Bets Today October 3:
Three Wild Card series are done. One is not and that is the only game tonight, as the Mets and Brewers play a winner-take-all tilt at American Family Field. There have been 12 Wild Card Series in this current format (excluding the 2020 COVID playoffs) and only two have needed a Game 3. The Mets lost Game 3 back in 2022 to the Padres, who would go on to upset the Dodgers in the NLDS.
I have ALDS previews up for Tigers vs. Guardians and Royals vs. Yankees so far and will have the Padres vs. Dodgers preview up a little later.
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For now, let’s look at Mets/Brewers Game 3.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 3:
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 7.5)
7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Neither bullpen has been able to lock it down in this series, as the Mets erased an early 4-3 deficit with a five-run inning off of Joel Payamps and Aaron Ashby in Game 1. Last night, Phil Maton gave up a game-tying homer to 20-year-old Jackson Chourio and a go-ahead two-run homer to Garrett Mitchell.
Credit to the Brewers pen, who did absolutely lock it down after Frankie Montas struggled through 3.2 innings. I had that handicap right that Montas was an ill-advised option and his own error set the stage for the Mets to score three early runs, but the Mets couldn’t hold their lead and lost as an underdog.
In this one, we get Jose Quintana and Tobias Myers. It is a huge spot for Myers, who is on his sixth organization and first season in the bigs. He had a 3.00 ERA with a 4.11 xERA and a 3.91 FIP in 138 innings at the MLB level for Milwaukee. He actually pitched to a 2.86 ERA in the second half over 66 innings, which was better than his 3.13 over the first 72 innings, even though he allowed a lower BA, OBP, and SLG in the first half.
Myers was mostly solid in September with a 3.03 ERA over 29.2 innings, but he did give up three homers and six doubles, leading to a .402 SLG. He’ll have to avoid that here, but he may have a good chance, as his home numbers across the board were better than his road numbers. Still, I think manager Pat Murphy could have a quick hook. Payamps is the only reliever who has worked both games in this series and the winner does have an off day tomorrow, so all hands are on deck.
Similarly, Carlos Mendoza will be watching Quintana like a hawk, especially with a rested David Peterson ready to go if need be. Quintana finished the season with a 3.75 ERA, but had a 4.49 xERA and a 4.56 FIP. That said, over his last six starts, Quintana only allowed for runs on 25 hits in 36.1 innings. He did walk 11 and had at least two walks in five of his six starts, but the Brewers, who walked a lot in the regular season, have only drawn two walks in this series over 17 innings.
There is no tomorrow if you don’t win today, so I really don’t think Mendoza is worried about holding Peterson back. My guess is that they’ll try to push Quintana through the lineup once and then go to Peterson. The Brewers don’t really have an option like that, as it’ll just be a bullpen game after Myers.
Myers allowed a .315/.366/.478 slash with a .365 wOBA the third time through the order, leading to a 6.28 ERA. I’ll be stunned if he turns the lineup over a third time and it is fair to wonder if he even gets that far with it.
Ryne Stanek is the only one who has worked back-to-back days for the Mets, so they pretty much have everybody ready to go as well, though Phil Maton has worked four of the last five days and blew yesterday’s game, so I doubt he’s an option.
The Brewers posted a .312 wOBA (13th) and a 99 wRC+ (15th) against lefties and I think they’ll see them for a while today. They had a .321 wOBA (7th) and a 105 wRC+ (10th) against righties, so this was their weaker split. If we look specifically at the second half, they had a .308 wOBA and a 97 wRC+.
As a result, I think the Mets as a dog are the side here. I don’t know if they win, but this game feels closer to a toss-up than the line implies.
Pick: Mets +114
