MLB Best Bets Today April 9
We have a 6-6-3 format today, with six games in each league and then three interleague matchups, so long as Mother Nature cooperates. Rain threatens the games in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Minnesota, which is something you definitely want to account for in the event that a starter is forced out early or that a game may not make it all nine innings.
For now, all 30 teams are slated to be in action and there are only a couple of day games on the docket.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 9:
Miami Marlins at New York Yankees (-198, 8)
7:05 p.m. ET
A couple of southpaws will take the mound in the Bronx, as the Marlins send A.J. Puk out for his third start of the season and the Yankees counter with Carlos Rodon. It will also be the third start for Rodon, who is stepping down in class in a big way in this one. After facing the Astros and Diamondbacks, two teams who project to be quite good against lefties as the season rolls along, he gets a Miami team that has batted .175/.234/.233 with a 33 wRC+ against southpaws to this point.
A 33 wRC+ means that the Marlins have been 67% below league average in this split so far. To make matters worse, Miami’s 205 plate appearances against lefties are the most in baseball. They’ve had plenty of chances and will actually be facing their fifth left-handed starter in the last seven games.
Rodon hasn’t been overly sharp yet, as he’s allowed 12 hits and five walks through two starts across 9.2 innings, but he’s minimized the damage with only three runs allowed. The Marlins are another team that doesn’t strike out a lot, so we’ll see if the K% department improves, but the Marlins don’t have a lineup as talented as the other two teams.
I think Rodon will be fine, but the real motivation here is to fade Puk. While the Marlins have struggled badly with lefties, the Yankees have not. They rank second in wRC+ at 137 with a .284/.393/.382 slash. Puk, who is being used as a starter for the first time in his MLB career, has allowed a .292/.471/.417 slash to righties. He’s faced 34 right-handed batters and just one lefty to this point.
To his credit, he’s actually done well to minimize hard contact, but he’s issued nine walks. Now he goes on the road to a far less forgiving ballpark. He’s also not getting nearly as many swings and misses and his fastball velocity is down about 2 mph with the transition to starting.
Lastly, Marlins manager Skip Schumacher has already said that he’ll be exploring other opportunities after the season, as the Marlins voided his 2025 contract option. So, the Marlins upset GM Kim Ng enough for her to leave and the manager is already talking about leaving less than 10 games into the season. This organization is a mess and that stuff leaks onto the field.
I normally don’t like home team run lines because they’re only going to bat eight times if they have a lead, but the Yankees pen is well-rested if Rodon gets in trouble and Puk is likely to have a really hard time with this lineup between his control issues and all the right-handed bats.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+105)
Houston Astros (-130, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals
7:40 p.m. ET
Cristian Javier and Cole Ragans square off on Tuesday night at Kauffman Stadium with one of the top pitching matchups of the young season. The left-handed Ragans does draw a challenging assignment, so we’ll see how he fares against Houston, but my focus is on Javier in this one.
A 28-pitch fifth inning derailed the Javier Over 15.5 Outs Recorded prop in his last start against the Blue Jays, but I’m going back to the well in hopes of finding some water this time. This should be a good matchup for Javier, as it’s going to be cool with a breeze blowing in at the Big K. His fly ball stylings should play well in that environment. He’s only allowed a 17.9% Hard Hit% thus far through two starts, as only five of 28 batted balls have been hit at least 95 mph. He didn’t allow a single 100 mph batted ball to the Blue Jays in his last outing.
He’s pitching to an extreme launch angle right now, so hitters aren’t really able to drive the baseball. The Blue Jays have an 11.2% BB% right now, so they waited out Javier and were able to run that pitch count up in the middle innings. The Royals have a 7.5% BB% and also just a 21.9% K%, so they like to put the ball in play. I think that should also provide a boost to Javier here.
Kansas City has four lefties in the regular lineup if they use it, but Adam Frazier and Kyle Isbel have been below average hitters the last few seasons overall and both project that way this season.
Javier’s raw stuff has graded really well and he’s facing a contact-oriented lineup, so I like him to work deeper into this one.
Pick: Cristian Javier Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
This is a game that I stared at for a long time this morning trying to figure out the best way to attack it. I’ve been extremely impressed with what Aaron Civale has done and really liked what I saw in Patrick Sandoval’s second start. He was a bit unlucky in the first start against Baltimore, as he didn’t allow much hard contact, but got little help from the defense and seemed to struggle with the weather conditions and his grip. He was much stronger in his second start against the Marlins.
Through two starts, Sandoval has a 13.6% SwStr% and he’s throwing over 70% first-pitch strikes. Civale hasn’t generated as many swings and misses, but he’s also working from ahead and had done an excellent job of limiting hard contact. The Rays got him from the Guardians and many expected that they would unlock his full potential. That seems to be the case. He has only allowed two runs on eight hits over 12 innings with a 28.6% Hard Hit%.
I was torn between taking the Rays and taking the 1st 5 Under 4.5 at -115. The Rays offense has struggled a little bit at the outset and Sandoval has a much better defense behind him this season. The Angels are actually +3 Defensive Runs Saved to this point and +4 Outs Above Average. They ranked 27th at -21 OAA last season. They’ve been so much better on defense to this point and that is a point of emphasis for first-year skipper Ron Washington. They’re also just a more athletic team right now.
The reason I was so torn is because I wanted to back the Rays against lefties early in the season. They can throw nine right-handed batters out there, much like they did last night against Tyler Anderson, though they did very little of consequence against him.
Both bullpens have been pretty dicey early in the season, but the Angels’ high-leverage guys have been more effective in their limited appearances compared to the Rays’ guys. So, I’ll go with the 1st 5 Under.
Pick: 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-115)
