MLB Best Bets Today August 13:
A full slate of games is on tap for Tuesday, as we get six in each league and three interleague matchups. We had some really good games last night and some surprising results, especially with the Yankees getting clubbed by the lowly White Sox in a giant road favorite role. Over 162 games, a lot of things will happen and that was one of them.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 13:
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-125, 8.5)
7:40 p.m. ET
We’ve seen a pretty significant line move towards the Twins for tonight’s game, as prospect Zebby Matthews makes his MLB debut. It will be Seth Lugo for the Royals. Bettors seem to be aligned against Lugo a little bit, as he’s had three rough starts over his last five outings with a little bit of regression is setting in with a 2.72 ERA, 3.95 xERA, and a 3.45 FIP in his 155.2 innings of work.
He’s allowed six runs twice and one run twice in four starts since the All-Star Break, with the two good starts against the White Sox and Tigers and the two bad starts against the Cubs and Red Sox. The Twins grade as a top-10 offense in the second half with the ninth-ranked wOBA at .327 and eighth-ranked wRC+ at 113.
I thought about taking the Royals here because I think this line move has been a bit extreme, but Lugo does have those regression signs in the profile and he’s also now thrown more innings than he had in any MLB season and the most innings he’s thrown in pro ball in any season. I’m especially sensitive to that at this time of the year.
On the Matthews side, he is a promising arm with big minor league strikeout numbers and unbelievable walk rates. He’s walked around 3% of batters in pro ball and has generated lots of swings and misses. However, his in-zone command can be a bit of a question. He allowed four homers in four Triple-A starts and 24 hits in 19 innings. When he stepped up from A-ball to High-A last season, he allowed 13 homers in just 66.2 innings after allowing one in 38.2 innings in the lower level.
The Royals are a super-aggressive offense that doesn’t walk or strike out much. If they’re going to be really aggressive in the zone, I think that could be a tough thing for Matthews, who will be on the hook for batted ball variance with a lot of pulled contact in the minors this season.
Both bullpens rank in the bottom half of the league in ERA in the second half. Could be a fun one tonight in the Twin Cities.
Pick: Royals/Twins Over 8.5 (-112)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-125, 9) at Milwaukee Brewers
8:10 p.m. ET
Admittedly, my Fade Colin Rea stance hasn’t really been working out very well, although the Brewers hit the Over on their own last time. I’m going to take one more crack at it today with the Dodgers, who just welcomed Mookie Betts back and have Freddie Freeman in a little better state of mind at the top of the order.
The Dodgers Team Total Over 2.5 is +114 for the first five innings and that is my focal point here. Rea has a 3.38 ERA with a 4.75 xERA and a 4.27 FIP in 122.1 innings of work. With seven outs today, he’ll set a new career high in MLB innings for a season. I still don’t believe in his 79.8% LOB% with his low K%. Last season, with a more appropriate LOB% of 72.6%, he had a 4.55 ERA. There is a lot of room for regression here.
I’m just not sure Rea can navigate this lineup the way that he’s navigated others. All the stats point to tough times and the Dodgers lineup should get a big boost from Betts being back.
Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)
