MLB Best Bets Today August 20:
We’re back to normal with the MLB card for Tuesday, as all 30 teams take the field and we only have one TBD on the board in terms of starting pitchers. There are a lot of places across the Midwest and East Coast with cooler weather than they’ve seen in quite some time, so we’ll see if that impacts offense at all with the downswing in temperatures.
Offenses are collectively batting .246/.314/.412 this month after batting .248/.316/.418 last month, so we’ve already seen offense tick down ever so slightly, but August is still stronger than what we saw in June with a .246/.313/.407 slash.
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I think injury attrition with pitchers is as much or more to blame than the weather, but lower temps and lower humidity/dewpoint numbers could have a neutralizing effect on offense, so that’ll be something to watch as we go forward.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 20:
Philadelphia Phillies (-148, 8.5) at Atlanta Braves
7:20 p.m. ET
Zack Wheeler and Reynaldo Lopez are the listed starters as the Phillies and Braves open up a big three game set down in the Battery in Atlanta. This will be the first MLB start for Lopez since July 28, as he hit the IL with forearm inflammation. He made one rehab start at Triple-A and allowed three runs on six hits in four innings. He threw 71 pitches in that start, so I would assume that he will be limited on a pitch count here.
Lopez was a pretty significant regression candidate when he hit the IL. He has a 2.06 ERA with a 4.40 xERA, 3.17 FIP, and a 3.88 xFIP. He’s got a 6.4% HR/FB%, which is why his xFIP is so elevated. He is also running an 86.1% LOB%, which is 2.4% higher than any other pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched.
The high xERA for Lopez comes from a 40.6% Hard Hit% and a 9.1% Barrel%, both of which rank below the league average. He allowed four Barrels and a 44.8% HH% in his last two starts before hitting the IL and then struggled with his command in that minor league start.
We’ll see if Jorge Soler can come back for the Braves after missing the last four games, but we know they won’t have Austin Riley, who fractured his hand over the weekend.
Wheeler has allowed more than two runs in one start since the middle of June. In fact, Wheeler has allowed more than two runs just twice since May 12. He’s allowed four runs (three earned) over his last three starts. He’s got a 33.2% Hard Hit% and an 8.2% Barrel%, which is a tad concerning, especially with 13 Barrels in his last five starts, but he’s done a good job of limiting hard contact otherwise and does a really good job of limiting contact with a high K%.
The Braves have struggled all season long against right-handed pitching and have a 24.9% K% in the second half. This is a big number, but I like the Phillies here, who have had Atlanta’s number in big games the last few years and have a chance to bury their NL East hopes in this series.
With a big move right as I was posting, I pivoted from laying the big full-game price to taking the Phillies 1st 5 run line at less vig.
Pick: Phillies 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-115)
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-122, 7.5)
7:45 p.m. ET
The Brewers and Cardinals meet under the Arch in St. Louis with a battle between two Trade Deadline acquisitions. It will be Frankie Montas for Milwaukee and Erick Fedde for St. Louis. There is a lot happening with these two guys and I think we could see some offense early in the game.
Let’s start with Montas, who has allowed three runs in five or fewer innings in each of his three starts with the Brewers. He’s faced the Nationals, Braves, and Dodgers in those outings. All three runs were unearned last time out against LA. To his credit, he has 18 strikeouts in 14 innings, so the Brewers have found some additional swing-and-miss upside in the profile, but he’s got a 6.60 ERA and a 4.99 FIP in his last 30 innings. That honestly scared me away a little bit from taking the Brewers at +102, which I still lean and may eventually take.
The Brewers have altered Montas’s pitch selection. He hasn’t thrown many splitters in his last two starts and Milwaukee has him throwing more fastballs. The Cardinals do grade really poorly against four-seamers this season, so maybe that strategy will work here. I still don’t like when guys throw more heaters and especially in the case of Montas, who allows a lot of hard contact to begin with.
On the Fedde front, I think he’s wearing down. While he had a 2.53 ERA in 21.1 July innings, he got a lot of extra time between starts and had walk rate issues. In his three starts with the Cardinals, his velocity has been down and he’s allowed 10 runs on 16 hits in 16 innings. He’s had two of his six worst starts from a Z-Contact% standpoint and he’s a guy that doesn’t get much chase outside the zone, so he needs some margin for error, which he isn’t getting.
Milwaukee has a terrific offense and I was very impressed watching them against the Guardians last weekend. I think they get to Fedde, who threw over 180 innings in Korea last season and has already surpassed his previous MLB high this season, but I also worry about Montas, who can get erratic and appears to be making some big usage changes that may or may not work.
I’d rather attack the starters than the bullpens here, so even with a low total of 7.5, it’s the 1st 5 for me.
Pick: Brewers/Reds 1st 5 Over 4.5 (+105)
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (-120, 8.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
Nick Pivetta and Ronel Blanco get us going in this one with the Red Sox and Astros in Game 2 of the weekday set. Houston walked off Boston yesterday, as the Red Sox bullpen gave up another one. That’s been an ongoing theme, as Boston’s pen has a 6.93 ERA with a 5.81 FIP here in the second half over 115.2 innings.
To compound those problems tonight, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Lucas Sims have all worked three of the last four nights. Brennan Bernardino was unavailable last night after working three straight over the weekend. So not only are these guys struggling, but the workloads are heavy across the board.
That seems problematic with Pivetta on the bump. He had a turn in the rotation skipped and came back on 10 days rest to give up three runs on three hits to Baltimore in his last outing. Pivetta has allowed eight homers in his last four starts and has allowed a 51.9% Hard Hit% with an 11.5% Barrel% in that span. I doubt Houston will have Alex Bregman in the lineup and that means you can probably get a better price on this game later, but I have to work with what’s available in the morning while I’m writing.
There are regression signs in Blanco’s profile, which have basically been there all season, but he continues to overcome them with a 2.89 ERA and a 4.25 FIP. In 70.2 innings at home, he’s held the opposition to a .167/.250/.329 slash with a .256 wOBA. His K% is 2% higher at home and he’s been able to navigate a slightly higher walk rate. For reference, a .256 wOBA equates to Ke’Bryan Hayes, who is batting .233/.283/.290 for the Pirates this season.
I don’t trust the banged-up Pivetta and all his hard contact. I don’t trust the Boston bullpen. The Astros are playing well. That all seems worth -120 to me and I do think you’ll get an even better number later when the lineup comes out without Bregman in it.
Pick: Astros -120
