MLB Best Bets Today July 8

A full slate of night games with the 5-5-5 format of five AL games, five NL games, and five interleague games is on tap for Tuesday. We have some competitively-lined games in all three sections as well, so that should make for an interesting night on the diamond. Of the 30 starting pitchers today, only six of them are lefties, so it will be a right-handed-heavy type of night as well.

A few games are threatened by rain, predominantly in Baltimore, New York, and Chicago, so keep an eye on that. It’s always good to check the forecasts right before first pitch to see if you can steal some winning bets with some starting pitcher Unders on player props.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 8:

New York Mets (-126, 10) at Baltimore Orioles

6:35 p.m. ET

The total has gone up to 10 for this interleague tilt between the Mets and Orioles. It will be a warm night at Camden Yards with some pregame storms around, but temps in the mid-80s with high humidity and dewpoint ratings should help the offenses a bit.

As you know, Clay Holmes is a guy that I’ve been looking to fade. He’s got a 2.99 ERA with a 4.15 xERA and a 4.37 FIP in his 93.1 innings of work. In his first season as a full-time starter, he’s already set a career-high in innings pitched and I think we’re starting to see the impact that it has on the arm. Holmes has issued 14 walks in his last three starts against just eight strikeouts. He’s only allowed six runs on 10 hits, but all the signs are there for a big blow-up of a start.

His 9.1% SwStr% is dropping lower and lower, as he’s had SwStr% of 4.8%, 7.2%, and 6.6% over his last three starts and just had his second-lowest Chase Rate start of the season last time out against the Brewers. Baltimore has a top-10 offense over the last 14 days with a .324 wOBA, as their bats are coming around a bit, thanks to a .449 SLG in that span, which ranks sixth.

Maybe Holmes keeps dancing around danger, especially with his high GB%, but his stats are going in the wrong direction and I think some serious fatigue is setting in. I’ll also take my chances with a plus-money Over 2.5 in a game with a total of 10 and a line that doesn’t really imply a Mets blowout win.

Pick: Orioles 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds (-121, 9)

7:10 p.m. ET

Eury Perez and Nick Martinez are the listed starters here, as the Marlins and Reds continue their series on the banks of the Ohio River. The 6-foot-8 right-hander going for the Marlins had a 1.99 ERA with a 3.63 FIP in eight minor league starts and now has a 4.50 ERA with a 3.02 xERA and a 3.27 FIP in five MLB starts.

Perez has a 61% LOB%, which is the reason why his ERA is so much higher than his xERA and FIP right now. I love the 3.02 xERA even with a high BB%, as it’s a good indication of how he’s limited home runs (one in 22 innings) and limited hard contact with a 31.1% Hard Hit%. The Reds have just a 6.7% BB% over the last 14 days and haven’t walked much for long stretches of the season.

In fact, the Reds have a .273 wOBA with a .228/.283/.330 slash over the last two weeks. Only Cleveland has worse offensive numbers. The Reds only have eight homers in that span and haven’t shown much in the way of contact authority. I don’t see that changing much against Perez, who is an uncomfortable plate appearance between his height and velocity.

I’m also looking to fade Martinez here. He’s been a valuable arm for the Reds with a 4.20 ERA, 4.15 xERA and a 4.23 FIP in his 100.2 innings of work. But, I think his recent workload could catch up with him against a Marlins lineup that ranks in the top 10 in wOBA over the last two weeks and also top 10 in terms of road performance. Martinez was yanked from the rotation after giving up seven runs and three homers to the Twins on June 19. After that, he had two relief appearances. Then he returned to the rotation on June 27 and threw 112 pitches in search of a no-hitter, which he lost in the ninth inning.

Last time out, Martinez allowed four runs on nine hits in 6.2 innings to the Red Sox, throwing 89 pitches. That’s a lot of up-downs in two starts for Martinez after two relief outings. Maybe the relief outings helped him get back on track, but I could absolutely see some fatigue come into play here on a thick, hot night in Cincy.

The Marlins have been playing at a very high level and have gotten some top-notch relief work lately as well, with a 3.33 ERA and a 3.46 FIP over the last 30 days, while the Reds are at 4.58 and 4.42, respectively. Narrow that to the last two weeks and the Marlins have a 2.05 ERA with a 2.59 FIP and the Reds have a 4.62 ERA with a 4.65 FIP. I’ll take my chances with the underdog who has scored 1.2 runs per game more on the road.

Pick: Marlins -101

Toronto Blue Jays (-199, 9) at Chicago White Sox

7:40 p.m. ET

I’ll put the cart before the horse here…I really like this matchup for Toronto tonight. Chris Bassitt gets the ball for the Jays and Aaron Civale will go for the White Sox. I talked about this going into Civale’s last start against the Dodgers. While the Over 5.5 Hits Allowed prop didn’t make it (he allowed 5), he gave up five runs. Only two of them were earned, but defense was a big part of that handicap for me.

After demanding a trade from the Brewers, he was banished to the White Sox, which represents a massive defensive downgrade. Using Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, the Brewers are the No. 2 defense in MLB at +24 Outs Above Average, leading to 21 Runs Prevented. The White Sox are the No. 26 defense at -15 OAA, leading to -12 Runs Prevented. So, that’s essentially a difference of 30 runs on defense.

Civale is not a strikeout pitcher. He has 33 in 43 innings this season. He’s also had some control concerns, especially with Chicago, as he’s walked 11 batters in four starts. The Blue Jays strike out at the lowest rate in the league, so Civale’s lack of strikeouts should be even more present here. With that atrocious defense behind him, I’m fully anticipating Toronto scoring runs. They scored five off of Civale on nine hits over seven innings back on June 21.

Bassitt has struggled a bit lately, but his last two starts have been at Fenway Park and then against the Yankees. He also faced the Diamondbacks and Cardinals prior to that. But, in between, he had six innings of one-run ball against these same White Sox with seven strikeouts against one walk. Chicago has the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching.

I like the 1st 5 run line on Toronto -0.5 at -125, but I do think -1.5 at -120 is a reasonable play as well. They should be playing from in front and have a lead to protect, which means the better relievers should be in play. I’ll actually play both of them here because I feel strongly about this matchup and their ability to knock Civale around while Bassitt has another good effort against the team that drafted him back in 2011.

Pick: Blue Jays 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-125); Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 (-120)