MLB Best Bets Today June 17th
Greetings folks! Our usual baseball maestro Adam Burke is on vacation for a while, so while he is away I’ll be taking over daily MLB best bets.
Despite Adam’s absence, the usual schedule of articles will remain. I’ll have daily best bets Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up the standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays.
Top MLB Resources:
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB Best Bets today for June 17th:
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees (-241, 9)
Consider me a Will Warren truther. There is a ton of underlying data that shows Warren has the stuff to be a good starter in the league, but it has not come together this season. But, it could tonight against the Angels.
Warren owns a 4.86 ERA but his 3.23 FIP and 3.75 xERA show that he has deserved better in his 14 starts. He gets opposing hitters to whiff 27.9% of the time, and he has struck out 28.6% of batters faced to this point. Those figures bode well in this start against the Angels.
The Halos lead the league in overall strikeout rate (26.5%) and away from home they rank 28th (25.1%). They are a feast-or-famine lineup which ranks 24th in wOBA (.300) but second in home runs. Warren not only has good swing-and-miss numbers, but does a great job of keeping the ball in the park. He’s allowed only six homers in 63 innings.
Kyle Hendricks will oppose Warren tonight. Hendricks is coming off two decent home starts by his standards, but the former Cubs starter has struggled greatly on the road. In 35 1/3 innings away from Anaheim Hendricks has a 6.37 ERA and a 6.04 FIP. New York is in a bit of a slump – the team is hitting .171 over the last five games and has been shutout in the last two – but if there was a pitcher to get right against, it would be Hendricks.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-127)
Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds (-115, 8.5)
There have been few pitchers as consistent as Andrew Abbott this season. The Reds’ southpaw has allowed one earned run or fewer in nine of his 11 starts this season. He’s pitched at least five innings in seven straight starts. Cincinnati is 8-3 when he starts, and there is little reason to jump off the train now.
Abbott does have some signs of regression in his profile, but there is nothing that indicates the fall to earth will be violent, whenever it comes. He has struck out 26.1% of opposing hitters, and he ranks in the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate (30.6%). Abbott’s barrel rate allowed (8.8%) is likely the reason why some metrics indicate he’s pitching above his head, but even so his FIP (3.28) and xERA (3.02) are among the best in the league.
Tonight, Abbott gets to face a Twins lineup which has been extremely average against left-handed pitching this season. Minnesota ranks 16th in wOBA (.291) and 17th in wRC+ (84) against lefties. It has hit just .225 against them this season and as a whole the lineup has the fourth-highest strikeout rate against left-handers (26.7%).
Abbott is deserving of more respect, and the market has begun to show it. Cincinnati has seen about a 10 cent move in its direction on the moneyline from the overnight opener. So, instead of jumping in late on the side, let’s just back Abbott directly. His earned run prop is set at 2.5 with a fair price of -135 on the under. It’s a good price to play for a consistent pitcher in an advantageous position.
Pick: Andrew Abbott UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-135)
