MLB Best Bets Today May 13

The 5-5-5 MLB format is back, as all 30 teams take the field with five games in each league and five interleague matchups. Our first game doesn’t start until 6:10 p.m. ET, so that means all day to survey the card and find the top available plays. The quarter pole is officially here or has passed for every team, so we’re already through a quarter of the season. It sure seems like it’s flown by.

Several games do have weather concerns and pitchers may have to pitch through the rain in order to get the games in, so we’ll see how those play out. Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Cleveland are the hottest spots to follow for precipitation, but more than half of today’s games have a chance of delays, postponements, or late starts.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 13:

Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds (-205, 9)

6:40 p.m. ET

A rested and reinvigorated Reds team should be ready to take advantage of a soft spot on the schedule this week with the White Sox in town. Cincinnati just wrapped up a seven-game road trip and hadn’t had a scheduled day off since April 24. They got a rainout on April 29, but then played a doubleheader the next day. They were off on Monday and should be ready to get back on track, as they’ve dropped seven of their last nine.

Andrew Abbott’s season got off to a late start, as he didn’t debut until April 12, but the 25-year-old has been terrific thus far. He has a 2.25 ERA with a 2.65 xERA and a 3.65 FIP. He’s struck out 31 over 24 innings and has allowed just a 25.5% Hard Hit%. His lone dud of a start came in Colorado, where he allowed four runs on five hits over four innings. He isn’t working all that deep into games, as he has been a little bit limited early in the season, but he’s on two extra days rest here and threw 91 pitches last time out, his second-highest output of the season.

The White Sox have a .265 wOBA against lefties. They only have a 6.4% BB% paired with a 24.1% K%, so this is the type of start that should help Abbott’s walk rate and also keep his strikeout rate high and healthy. The White Sox are also 28th in HR/FB% in that split, so that’s something that should also help an extreme fly ball guy like Abbott. Chicago’s 35.4% Pull% is the third-lowest against LHP.

Jonathan Cannon has been flirting with disaster of late. He has a 4.09 ERA with a 4.40 xERA and a 4.68 FIP. He is a low-strikeout, high-walk pitcher right now who has also allowed more than a hit per inning. Cannon’s last two starts have been six innings with two runs, but he’s allowed nine hits in each one of them. He’s actually very fortunate to be running a 79.9% LOB% with his 16.9% K%.

The Reds have stolen 47 bases and they’re tied for third, so if Cannon continues giving up a lot of hits, Cincinnati may force the issue on the bases. I typically don’t like to play the “double negative”, the run line at a minus price on a home team that may only bat eight times, but it seems pretty applicable here, especially with a huge discrepancy between starters and also bullpens, as the Reds, despite some regression signs, are still a top-10 relief unit by ERA. The White Sox are not close to that.

Pick: Reds Run Line -1.5 (-102)

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (-245, 7.5)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Pirates seem to have a bit of a spark since Derek Shelton was fired. Shelton was canned prior to the weekend and Pittsburgh went out and won two of three against the Braves before dropping the series opener in walk-off fashion against the Mets. They’re battling and it seems like the vibes are a bit better. In fact, Isiah Kiner-Falefa had some really positive things to say about the clubhouse under new skipper Don Kelly, who was ejected over the weekend for arguing balls and strikes.

Mitch Keller gets the call today for the Buccos as they look to even up the series at Citi Field. Keller hasn’t looked great this season, as he comes in with a 4.40 ERA, 5.18 xERA, and a 3.69 FIP. He’s only allowed three homers, but he’s running a .317 BABIP and a 68.5% LOB%. Keller’s high xERA is a byproduct of a low 17.5% K% coupled with a 42.1% Hard Hit%, but I do appreciate that he’s not allowing long balls. Also, he had a miserable start against the Yankees early in the season and has a 3.57 ERA with a 3.70 FIP over his last six starts.

Kodai Senga has been terrific, but I am looking for some regression. Senga has a 1.16 ERA with a 3.33 xERA and a 3.03 FIP. Still awesome numbers, but he’s currently running an 87.4% LOB%. Senga has a 2.4% HR/FB% with just one long ball in 38.2 innings of work. It’s not like I’m expecting him to be terrible by any means, but that LOB% won’t hang around forever and he just walked five in his last start.

Senga has allowed a 42.4% Hard Hit% on the year, so he’s given up some hard contact. Yet his BABIP is .276. So, I could see the Pirates being able to hang around in this one, especially with their renewed sense of purpose. We also have a total of 7.5 here, so that should tighten up the game and increase the value of getting a 1.5-run head start.

Pick: Pirates Run Line +1.5 (-102)

New York Yankees (-142, 7) at Seattle Mariners

9:40 p.m. ET

It is a big day for Bryan Woo. The Seattle starter hasn’t made a start in the friendly confines of T-Mobile Park since April 12. His last four starts have all been on the road and, to be honest, he was really, really good in three of them given the circumstances. He faced the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rangers, and Athletics. He gave up five runs on eight hits last time out against the A’s, but now he’s back at home.

Woo has a 3.25 ERA with a 2.86 xERA and a 2.91 FIP in his 44.1 innings of work. The right-hander has a 7.3% HR/FB%, so he’s done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard. He held the opposition to a .186/.207/.295 slash with a .218 wOBA last year at home, posting a 55/6 K/BB ratio in the process over 58.1 innings. He only allowed five homers at home. In two home starts this season, he’s allowed two runs on nine hits with a 12/3 K/BB ratio.

Max Fried has been unreal this season. He’s allowed six earned runs over 51.2 innings of work. He’s an extreme ground ball guy who has had just two starts with an average exit velocity over 90 mph, so he’s done a masterful job of limiting hard contact. And, to his credit, five of his eight starts have been at Yankee Stadium, where a pop up to RF is a home run. He has a 37% Hard Hit% and a 6.8% Barrel%.

He’s also had back-to-back starts with a double-digit SwStr%, so he’s adding a little more swing and miss upside to his arsenal of late. The Mariners have fared well against lefties this season with a 9.6% BB% and a little bit of pop, but also have a 25.5% K% in that split. And they’re only batting .232, so it has been walks and the occasional long ball. Fried doesn’t really allow many of either.

I like the 1st 5 Under 3.5 here. It’s a low number, but these two hurlers should do well in Seattle tonight and runs should be at a premium.

Pick: Yankees/Mariners 1st 5 Under 3.5 (-110)