MLB Best Bets Today May 27

A full slate and nothing but night games on Tuesday, as we’ll have four games from each league and seven interleague matchups to consider for May 27. We’ve got some really good ones out there, especially with the Braves vs. Phillies series and Spencer Strider back on the bump in hopes of erasing the memory of his bad return start. There are a lot of big favorites out there as well, so we’ll see if the dogs have some bite.

On the weather side of things, the battle of the birds in Baltimore between the Cardinals and Orioles is the most threatened by Mother Nature, but the rest of the slate looks pretty clear.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 27:

Los Angeles Dodgers (-130, 9) at Cleveland Guardians

6:10 p.m. ET

Dustin May and Tanner Bibee get the day going, as this is the first game on the card for Tuesday. This is a decidedly better matchup for Cleveland than yesterday’s against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I ultimately couldn’t find an equitable way to play the Dodgers, but I knew that the Guardians would struggle mightily with Yamamoto’s splitter and his ability to neutralize lefties.

While it is true that May has had better numbers against lefties than righties, his sinker/sweeper combo is much more palatable for the Cleveland lineup, especially when you consider that lefties have a xBA of .321 and a xSLG of .546 against May’s sinker, which he’s thrown 38% of the time to those batters. He’s allowed a 96.5 mph EV, but a .216 actual BA and a .412 actual SLG. So, there’s some negative regression there against a lineup whose best hitters are left-handed.

Cleveland is also good at not striking out, at least generally speaking, so they could cut down May’s 25.4% K% and take advantage of his 9.5% BB%. May’s K% bump has also come with a single-digit SwStr% at 9.4% and a very low Chase Rate, so I don’t see sustainability with that.

Admittedly, Bibee is a bit of a tough guy for me to back, especially in these big spots, as he can be very emotional on the mound as the de facto ace of this staf. But, he’s really turned things around lately. While his 3.57 ERA and 5.09 FIP suggest some negative regression, a lot of that high FIP is carried by the seven homers he allowed over his first four starts and also his low K%.

Over his last 38 innings, Bibee has a 2.37 ERA with a 3.60 FIP and has only allowed four homers in six starts. He’s got a 28/7 K/BB ratio, so at least he’s leveraged his control better, despite not missing as many bats. He’s also allowed just a 39.1% Hard Hit% and a 6.1% Barrel% in that span, a far cry from what was happening earlier in the season. He’s coming off of his best start of the year from a Chase% standpoint and a SwStr% standpoint, so hopefully he’s close to turning a corner on that front.

I’m not entirely sure why, but Bibee has also been way more comfortable at Progressive Field, where he has a 3.02 ERA and a .279 wOBA against compared to a 3.57 ERA and a .316 wOBA against on the road. I think the more notable stat is that he’s thrown 9.2 fewer home innings, but has allowed 16 fewer homers pitching in the friendly confines.

Cleveland’s bullpen is well-stocked for this one because the high-leverage guys haven’t pitched in a few days. We’ll see if they can get Hunter Gaddis back from the bereavement list, but even if not, this is the type of spot where Stephen Vogt isn’t afraid to leverage Cade Smith for more than an inning.

Pick: Guardians +110

Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals (-122, 8.5)

7:40 p.m. ET

Brady Singer draws a matchup with his former team and the Royals will employ the “Johnny Wholestaff” approach here, as Daniel Lynch will open and a series of arms will take over after that. Kansas City’s bullpen ranks fifth in ERA and 12th in FIP, with both numbers better than what the Reds have to offer, so it may not be a bad strategy.

Singer had some early-season success with the Redlegs, but he’s struggling a lot of late. Over his last four starts, which all came in May, Singer has a 7.85 ERA with a 5.74 FIP and just 10 strikeouts against 10 walks in 18.1 innings. He’s allowed a 42.4% Hard Hit% and a 13.6% Barrel% in that span. His SwStr% is down to 4.9% and he’s actually had two starts with a sub-20% Chase Rate. He’s also struggled to maintain his velocity and I can’t help but wonder if something is going on with his health.

Singer is not a guy with a deep arsenal, as he has worked in the four-seam fastball and cutter a bit more, but as he has struggled, he’s gone back to his old habits of heavily leaning on being a two-pitch pitcher with his sinker and slider combo. He was with the Royals for five MLB seasons and in the organization for seven, so there are a lot of people on the field and off of it that know his pitch usage patterns and how his mind works.

I think that’s a really bad spot for a guy whose results already aren’t there. The Royals are obviously not a super gifted offense, but they have a better shot here than they usually do. I also like Lynch a lot as an opener and trust in pitching coach Brian Sweeney to cobble the right plan together with all hands on deck.

Pick: Royals -122

Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 8.5)

7:40 p.m. ET

At time of writing, no starter was listed for the Red Sox, but all signs point to Cooper Criswell getting the nod. Richard Fitts is an option, but Boston seems to prefer another rehab start for him to get things in order. Regardless, the Brewers have a below average offense and any guy going up against them has a shot to pitch well and keep his team in the ballgame.

Assuming it is Criswell, he has a 1.82 ERA in 24.2 innings at Triple-A with a 32/7 K/BB ratio and has only allowed a couple of home runs. He’s actually struck out 23 over his last three full starts, so he’s been throwing the ball pretty well anyway.

What I’m looking at here is the Boston offense against Aaron Civale. In two starts since coming  back from injury, Civale has allowed seven runs on eight hits in seven innings with four homers and a 5/3 K/BB ratio. He has had starts with SwStr% of 5.7% and 5.5% against the Yankees and Pirates. Boston’s biggest issue by far this season is swinging and missing. They have the third-highest SwStr% and still rank sixth in wOBA. They have the highest K% of any offense that ranks in the top 10 in wOBA and second-highest for a top-10 team in wRC+.

Civale doesn’t miss bats. The Milwaukee bullpen is 15th in K% and 21st in BB%. I think this is a terrific setup for the Boston offense and as long as Criswell or whoever can keep them in the game, I like their chances a lot.

Author edit: Richard Fitts will start. I still like the Red Sox.

Pick: Red Sox +105