MLB Best Bets Today September 3:
A month from today, we could have deciding games in the best-of-three Wild Card Round. That means we are four weeks away from Game 1 of the playoff. Plenty is yet to be decided in terms of that postseason picture, but each passing day adds a little more clarity to who will make the field.
We’ve got 26 of the league’s 30 teams on the diamond today and every game is at night as we strap in for another evening of regular season action.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for September 3:
Cleveland Guardians (-115, 8) at Kansas City Royals
7:40 p.m. ET
A huge game tonight at Kauffman Stadium features Tanner Bibee and Brady Singer as the Guardians and Royals do battle. Cleveland can push the lead out to 5.5 over KC and guarantee that they don’t lose any ground from where things started by securing the series win. Kansas City is in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card spot, but winning the division is likely to have some big perks with the byes available in the playoffs.
Bibee needed to be better for Cleveland last time out when he allowed five runs on eight hits over five innings to the Royals on August 28 at home. Selfishly, as a Cleveland fan, I hope it happens, but there’s also a bet I like regarding Bibee.
Since missing a turn in the rotation to begin August, Bibee has not completed six innings in four straight starts. He’s gone 5, 5.2, 5, and 5.2. Bibee has thrown 4.05 pitches per plate appearance per Baseball-Reference, which is a good bit above the league average at 3.89. He’s the highest on the Guardians staff in that regard.
I mentioned this before, but Stephen Vogt does not like to let his pitchers work too deep into the ballgame because of the third time through the order penalty. The Guardians have the fewest third time through the order plate appearances against with 523. They also have the highest OPS allowed in that split at .850. With an elite bullpen, Vogt hasn’t asked his starters for too much and Bibee is among that group, especially lately.
His Outs Recorded prop sits at 17.5 with plus money on the Under. When Vogt has a big game, he’s been quicker on the trigger with starters. He got seven innings from Gavin Williams yesterday and Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase only needed 19 pitches to end the game, so he has almost every bullpen weapon at his disposal. I don’t think he takes a chance pushing Bibee too far tonight and, frankly, I’m not sure Bibee will be all that sharp. He hasn’t been in his last two starts.
Pick: Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+115)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-185, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
Reid Detmers makes his return to the big leagues as the Angels take on the Dodgers. It will be Walker Buehler on the bump for the visitors, as the Dodgers look to avoid a letdown after swatting the Diamondbacks away over a four-game set down in Phoenix. The Dodgers took three of four in the extremely high-scoring series, with games that finished 19, 14, 17, and 17 in the runs scored column.
It is a tricky assignment for Detmers in his return after posting a 5.54 ERA in Triple-A, where he surrendered 18 home runs. But, it is important to remember that most ballparks in the Pacific Coast League play like Coors Field, including his home park in Salt Lake City due to the elevation and the summer heat. So, while Detmers gave up the 18 long balls, he only allowed one over his last four starts and actually had 29 strikeouts over his final 21 innings with the Bees.
Buehler has allowed at least three runs in 10 of his 11 starts and has allowed 11 runs on 16 hits in 12 innings since his return on August 14. He only has eight strikeouts against eight walks out of 62 batters faced in that span. It has certainly been a struggle.
I do think that the Angels have a better chance of winning this game than the line implies and I may ultimately put a small bet on them before this game gets going based on Buehler’s issues.
However, what I do really like is Detmers Over 4.5 Strikeouts at -120. For starters, I think there’s a decent chance Dave Roberts gives one of the studs a day off here after the big Diamondbacks series. Second, Detmers’ problem was never generating whiffs. He had 70 strikeouts in 63 innings before getting demoted and had a 13.4% SwStr%, including a strong 80.1% Z-Contact%.
The Dodgers are probably the best lineup in baseball, so maybe it’s apples and grapefruits to compare, but Detmers did have three double-digit strikeout games in the minors and three more starts with nine strikeouts. The guy knows how to get swings and misses. Even if the command isn’t there, there are redeeming qualities and his raw stuff is one of them. I wish the Angels would trade him to a team that can actually develop pitching (cough Guardians cough).
Anyway, I think he’ll get some whiffs here.
Pick: Reid Detmers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
