MLB Best Bets Today April 17
The Wednesday MLB card is thicc with day games, as we’ll have seven games at 2:10 p.m. ET or earlier and three more in the 3 p.m. hour. Baseball doesn’t have a ton of situational betting angles, but getaway day games can sometimes be one. Some things I’d look for as the season goes along are teams playing a getaway day game that have already secured a .500 or better road trip or teams getting an off day after a particularly long stretch of games.
I think a lot of people assume getaway day game Unders are great bets, but remember that the ball will typically carry better during the day thanks to the weather conditions, so I’d make sure you consider all factors – as you would for any game – before you fire away on totals like that.
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Lastly, please don’t just assume a rained out pick from the night before is a play the next day. I wouldn’t play the Royals/White Sox Under now with a day game and winds blowing kind of out to LF. Last night’s winds were blowing in from CF at 20 mph. That was a big part of the handicap.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 17:
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (-225, 8)
6:05 p.m. ET
We’ve got a pretty solid pitching matchup in Philly between Ryan Feltner and Cristopher Sanchez as the Rockies and Phillies wrap up their three-game set. The Rockies have scored one run against Phillies pitching thus far, as Ranger Suarez produced the second complete game shutout of the season last night (Ronel Blanco no-hitter).Â
Feltner has been outstanding so far this season for the Rox, allowing eight runs on 15 hits in 16 innings of work. He got minimal help from his defense in his debut start against Arizona, as two runs were unearned, so he’s got a 3.38 ERA with a 3.93 FIP. His Baseball Savant (Statcast) page is quite interesting, though, as he has an xERA of 2.43 that ranks in the 86th percentile. His xBA of .180 ranks in the 88th percentile and his 53.5% GB% ranks in the 82nd percentile.
He’s also in the 69th (nice) percentile in Whiff% and K%. He’s in the 75th percentile in average exit velo and 63rd percentile in Hard Hit% as he draws a Phillies lineup that currently ranks 30th in wOBA against RHP. He posted double-digit SwStr% in his first two starts, but the Jays made a lot of contact against him last time out, so I’ll be watching to see if he gets back to racking up swings and misses. Toronto didn’t make a lot of great contact, despite having eight hits. His xwOBA in that start was about 200 points below his actual wOBA, but he showed a lot by working out of jams.
Sanchez is off to a strong start as well with a 3.52 ERA and a 2.66 FIP over 15.1 innings of work. He’s walked seven and struck out 15. The Rockies only have a 6.9% BB% against LHP and have a 62 wRC+ to start the season. They did nothing against yesterday’s southpaw in Suarez, so I’m not overly optimistic that they’ll get to Sanchez here in this one. Sanchez also has a 60.9% BB% through two starts. Feltner has allowed two homers. Sanchez has allowed zero. We should get a lot of ground balls here and it’s still tough to manufacture runs in that kind of environment.
Both bullpens are in pretty good shape, so the primary relievers should be deployed in this game. I think both starters, given the matchup, can work fairly deep into this game as well.
Pick: Rockies/Phillies Under 8 (-112)
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 8)
6:50 p.m. ET
We have an interesting situation here, as the Angels will face Zack Littell for the second time in a week, but the Rays will face Reid Detmers for the first time. The rotations just happened to shake out that way for these two teams and Littell will go up against the Angels for the second straight time. In that game, Littell fell a strikeout short of cashing his K prop for us, as he struck out the side in the first inning, but also walked the bases loaded in that frame.
Littell wasn’t sharp at all in that start, as his Zone% of 38.4% was his lowest of the season and his 7.1% SwStr% was less than half of what he had in his Coors Field start against the Rockies five days earlier. He still only allowed one run on six hits, but it took him 99 pitches to get 13 outs.
Littell might be another big success story for the Rays and he’s done a really nice job this season of limiting hard contact, but Detmers has been dominant thus far. He’s struck out 26 in 17.1 innings of work against just six walks and has allowed two runs on eight hits. He’s allowed a 29% Hard Hit% and just two barrels while facing the Orioles and then Boston twice.
Tampa enters this one as a middle-of-the-pack offense against lefties with a 102 wRC+, but not all lefties are created like Detmers. The Angels are in a similar spot against righties, as they rank 14th in wRC+ at 98, so slightly below average. With Detmers punching out nearly 41% of batters to this point and Littell at 23.4%, I have to think the Angels put more balls in play, thus creating more run-scoring opportunities.
I have no interest in the full game, as the Angels pen is really up against it today. They used six relievers yesterday and their three primary guys – Carlos Estevez, Matt Moore, and Luis Garcia – all worked back-to-back days. The Rays needed seven relievers yesterday, so this game could be a crapshoot late.
However, I think Detmers has the edge over Littell, especially with Littell facing the Angels for a second straight time. Getting the Angels at even money for the 1st 5 seems like a good risk to take.
Pick: Angels 1st 5 (+100)
