MLB Best Bets Today August 14:
We have a full slate of games in MLB, and we do have some day games mixed into the equation. There is only one really early start, as the Twins look to sweep the Royals. Otherwise, 3:40 p.m. ET and one 4:10 p.m. ET aside from all of the standard-issue night games. There are only seven games on tap tomorrow and four early starts, at least for those of us in Pacific Time.
Most teams have about 40 games left, so the stretch run is truly on with a little over a month and a half left of the regular season.
Top MLB Resources:
Article runs Monday-Saturday, odds current from DraftKings at time of publish, SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Tracking sheet is here.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 14:
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-135, 8.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
Getaway day baseball at Petco Park features the Pirates and Padres and a real interesting start for Martin Perez. He’ll face the team that traded him to San Diego at the Trade Deadline in what will be his third start for the Friars. There have been some really interesting developments on the Perez front and those are in the spotlight for me here today.
The Pirates have lost nine in a row and 11 of 12 as they fly home after this one to welcome the Mariners to town with Paul Skenes on the bump on Friday. With a spot in the NL Wild Card picture pretty much evaporated, it’s been tough for this team to battle throughout the week and they’ve scored one run in two games in this series.
This is a Pirates crew that hasn’t raised the Jolly Roger much in the second half, but they’ve generated enough wind to have it swaying in the breeze if they had. They have the eighth-highest K% in the second half at 25.4% and the second-highest SwStr% per Sports Info Solutions.
That brings me to Perez, who has 13 strikeouts in 13 innings with San Diego. The Padres correctly recognized that Perez has a really bad sinker. They’ve cut down on the usage of that and his cutter to push him into throwing more curveballs and changeups. The results have been quite impressive. Not only does he have a punchy per inning, but he’s had SwStr% of 18.8% and 14.4% (Rockies and Marlins). He only had two double-digit SwStr% games with the Pirates in 16 starts and already has two, including a season-high, with the Padres.
Perez has had three games with a CB% over 20%. His April 9 start against the Tigers, and his two starts for the Padres. In those starts where he’s leveraged the curveball at his highest rates, he’s had 7, 7, and 6 strikeouts and has also worked deep into all three games.
His strikeout prop is juicy at -130 on Over 4.5 and I think it will continue to go up, but I still really like it today with his new-look arsenal against a swing-and-miss lineup that he knows very well.
Pick: Martin Perez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians (-142, 8.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
The Cubs and Guardians square off one final time in this interleague set at Progressive Field. It will be Jameson Taillon and Alex Cobb as Chicago looks to avoid the sweep. If Cobb’s first start is any indication, they may have a decent chance, as Cobb allowed five runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings against the Twins. He only struck out one of the 21 batters that he faced and allowed a 63.2% Hard Hit% and a couple of Barrels.
Maybe he’ll feel a little more comfortable in his second start, but this is a predominantly pitch-to-contact guy, and while the Guardians have a great infield defense, hard-hit balls are still tough to field. Cobb threw the ball well for the most part in his rehab starts, but the big leagues are certainly a different beast.
While it makes sense to me that Cleveland was trying to get arms on the cheap in a very expensive pitching market, Cobb still carries a lot of risk. Over 663.2 innings at home in his career, he owns a 3.17 ERA with a .230/.292/.353 slash and a .283 wOBA. He spent a lot of time in Tampa Bay and two full seasons in San Francisco, which are both elite pitcher’s parks.
On the road, Cobb has a career 4.57 ERA with a .283/.334/.438 slash and a .334 wOBA against in 652.1 innings. Cleveland has been much more hitter-friendly this season than in past seasons. I’m inherently worried about that, but also that Cobb had a 3.87 ERA with a 4.73 xERA and a 4.01 FIP last season, signaling the contact quality issues present in his first start.
Taillon comes in as a negative regression candidate with a 3.50 ERA, 3.76 xERA, and a 4.10 FIP. While it is fairly modest, his best attribute is not walking hitters, but the Guardians don’t walk a ton anyway. They’re a very aggressive lineup. Taillon is also a pitch-to-contact guy, so we’re getting lots of balls in play here.
Taillon has also had some rocky outings lately, including five runs on nine hits to the White Sox last start and six runs on six hits in 4.1 innings against the Reds two starts ago.
The other thing here is that the Guardians bullpen is gassed. Emmanuel Clase will 100% not be used tonight after pitching four straight days. Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith have each worked three of the last four, pushing manager Stephen Vogt to use Pedro Avila in a higher-leverage spot than usual yesterday. Scott Barlow and Nick Sandlin have been very unreliable lately and Eli Morgan is not a leverage option.
I think that’ll push Vogt to use Cobb longer, even if he’s struggling. I also think it’ll push the offense to try and do more given the circumstances.
Pick: Cubs/Guardians Over 8.5 (-108)
Oakland Athletics at New York Mets (-185, 8.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
Joey Estes and David Peterson are the listed starters for this one between the Athletics and Mets. Estes has given up eight runs twice on the road and six runs in another start, as he’s enjoyed the friendly confines of the Coliseum, but has not enjoyed sleeping in hotels. For the season, Estes has a 4.70 ERA with a 4.35 xERA and a 4.37 FIP, but that hides the big stories.
In 45 innings at home, he has a 2.40 ERA with a .252 wOBA against. In 37.1 innings on the road, he has a 7.47 ERA with a .289/.366/.572 slash and a .392 wOBA against. His BB% jumps from 3.5% at home to 8.6% on the road and his HR/FB% goes from 5.4% to 10.9%. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, it isn’t a huge surprise that Oakland’s spacious nature and the atmospheric conditions help. Along those same lines, it’s not a big surprise that the road is unkind. The minor leagues were very unkind.
Then there’s David Peterson, who has a 3.34 ERA, but a 5.42 xERA and a 4.45 FIP in his 64.2 innings of work. His 7.8% K-BB% is quite bad and he’s given up a 43.3% Hard Hit% on the season. He’s had a couple of nice starts recently, but against the Angels and Rockies.
In this one, Peterson draws an Oakland lineup that ranks third in wOBA against lefties in the second half at .372 and second in wRC+ at 147. This has definitely been the stronger split all season for the A’s, who have a 10.2% BB% against southpaws since the Break, a noteworthy stat against Peterson, who has a 10.6% BB% for the year.
I think we should get some runs early in this one. The A’s have swung it well the last two days with 17 runs and the Mets get a guy pitching with limited confidence on the road.
Pick: Athletics/Mets 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-120)
