MLB Best Bets Today August 20

Key Highlights:

• Yankees vs. Rays: A big starting pitcher advantage?
• Brewers vs. Cubs: Great pitching weather at Wrigley
• Reds vs. Angels: Which starting pitcher should we fade?

The Wednesday MLB card starts early with Blue Jays vs. Pirates at 12:35 p.m. ET, so it’ll be a business lunch special in the Steel City. That isn’t the only day game we’ve got, as three of the four early starts are interleague matchups. Fortunately, we still have our fair share of evening games to think about.

We do actually only have 14 games today, as the Red Sox and Orioles enjoy a rare Wednesday off day. The Red Sox start a four-gamer in the Bronx this weekend and the Orioles do the same at home against the Astros. But, let’s focus on the teams that are in action today instead.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for August 20:

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-121, 8.5)

7:35 p.m. ET

After a long rain delay, the Yankees jumped all over Shane Baz and wound up hitting nine homers in last night’s rout of the Rays. Things should go better on the pitching front for TB tonight with Drew Rasmussen on the bump. New York will counter with rookie Cam Schlittler.

Schlittler has a 3.94 ERA in his six starts, but he also has a 5.24 FIP. His 87.8% LOB% is doing a ton of heavy lifting for him. He does have 30 K in 29.2 innings, but has also issued 14 walks and surrendered six homers with more than a hit per inning allowed. He’s allowed a 41.2% Hard Hit% and a 10.6% Barrel% to this point. The Rays definitely have some swing-and-miss in the profile, but Schlittler has enough negative regression signs that I’m willing to take the chance here.

Rasmussen has allowed a .207/.265/.303 slash with a .254 wOBA against in 70.2 innings of work at Steinbrenner Field. There has been a learning curve to pitching outside in Tampa and at the Yankees’ Triple-A stadium. Others have been affected way more than Rasmussen, who has been aces at home and I’m a really big fan of how his characteristics play in this park.

He’s got a 50.2% GB% with just a 5.5% BB%. Also, he’s had good K% numbers every month except for May, including a 25.3% K% in the second half thus far. He’s also death on righties with a .232 wOBA against, but he’s also done well against lefties with a .279 wOBA against.

Schlittler’s 41.2% GB% is fine, but he’s running an 18.8% HR/FB% as he’s still working on his command. That should make for a better matchup for the Rays here. And if you look, Tampa Bay’s bullpen is fourth in fWAR this month and boasts a 3.57 ERA with a 3.34 FIP and the highest K% in the league paired with the third-lowest BB%.

Pick: Rays -121

Sacramento A’s at Minnesota Twins (-123, 9)

7:40 p.m. ET

The A’s and Twins are in action tonight with the second game of a three-game set. The A’s drew first blood with a 6-3 win yesterday behind emerging stud Jacob Lopez. Today, they’ll send out J.T. Ginn, who could have a much tougher road. The Twins will counter with Bailey Ober.

Ginn has been far better on the road than at home, but I’m overlooking that with some small sample size bias and the nature of this matchup. Ginn has allowed a .326/.423/.632 slash and a .445 wOBA to lefties thus far. In 111 plate appearances, he has a 19/14 K/BB ratio and has allowed eight home runs. He has allowed 13 runs on 13 hits in his last 11.1 innings of work and his velocity was down a bit in that laborious start against the Rays last time out.

The Twins are likely to run at least six lefties at Ginn today, but have other bench bats from that side that they could deploy.

Ober has a 5.15 ERA with a 4.44 xERA and a 5.18 FIP. He’s been even more of a fly ball pitcher this season and his home run rate has skyrocketed, as he’s given up 24 in just 108.1 innings. He allowed 27 in 178.2 innings last season. Ober’s K% is down 8.6% this season and the lack of bat-missing stuff has directly correlated to the HR increase. His Barrel% is up to 10.7% this season, second only to 2022 when he had an 11.7% Barrel%.

Ober’s velo is noticeably down this season and his slider has been one of the worst pitches in baseball. Since June 6, a span of eight starts, Ober has a 7.38 ERA with a 7.11 FIP in 46.1 innings of work. He’s allowed 17 home runs in that span. The Athletics are seventh in road wOBA and wRC+ and fourth in home runs.

I’ll lay the -145 on Over 4.5 Runs and also take Both Teams To Score 2+ Runs 1st 5 Innings (Under 1st X Innings at DK) at +120. 

Picks: A’s/Twins 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-145); Both Teams To Score 2+ Runs 1st 5 Innings (+120)

Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 7) at Chicago Cubs

8:05 p.m. ET

The Brewers and Cubs have a total of 7 today with Jacob Misiorowski and Colin Rea on the mound. If that number catches you by surprise, it should, but it is going to be a “wind blowing in” day at Wrigley. Like a very significant wind blowing in from left field, upwards of 20 mph sustained.

Knowing that you have a little bit more margin for error can alter a pitcher’s mindset. He’ll be more prone to pitch to contact knowing that balls in play or deep fly balls are unlikely to be as penal as usual. The Brewers faced their former teammate Rea back on July 29 and only struck out twice out of 29 plate appearances. They know his tendencies, his pitch selection, his plan of attack.

While Rea has gone Over 3.5 Strikeouts in 14 of his 21 starts, I think those factors are really important to put into the handicap here. The Brewers also have just an 18.5% K% against RHP over the last 30 days that ranks fourth and a .377 wOBA that ranks second. Perhaps we see a shorter start from Rea, even with the favorable conditions, but we’ve seen a very relaxed Brewers lineup with an 11.3% BB% in that span, so they’re not swinging at bad pitches.

Pick: Colin Rea (CHC) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels (-137, 9)

9:38 p.m. ET

Nick Martinez and Yusei Kikuchi are today’s hurlers, as the Reds wrap up their series against the Angels. Cincinnati is looking for a sweep here after winning the first two games by a combined score of 10-5. I think they have a terrific shot at bringing out the brooms before heading to Phoenix.

Martinez has some underwhelming stats this season with a 4.73 ERA, 4.15 xERA, and a 4.28 FIP. His 67.4% LOB% is the reason why his ERA is so much higher and he does have a little bit of a home run problem. Well, he used to, anyway. Martinez has allowed 19 HR this season, but only six in his last nine starts and three relief appearances covering 56 innings. He was bumped from the rotation and made a couple relief appearances while working on some things.

Since then, while he has a 4.98 ERA due to a 58.3% LOB%, he has a 3.97 FIP. I think there are some nice positive regression signs in the profile for a guy who got off to a rough start from a command standpoint. The Angels have a 31.4% K% against RHP over the last 30 days and Martinez has the opportunity to get some more swings and misses here. This is actually his worst season by Chase Rate and SwStr% since 2017, though that does include three seasons in Japan.

Kikuchi has a 3.52 ERA with a 4.50 xERA and a 4.08 FIP in his 143 innings of work. The A’s dealt him a few blows last time out with four runs on five hits. Kikuchi is becoming increasingly fly ball-heavy and was very fortunate to strand runners at the rate that he did early in the second half. Even with a 5.10 ERA and a .317/.374/.520 slash against and a .381 wOBA against in the second half, he’s been boosted by a 75.6% LOB%. He had an 80.6% LOB% in the first half.

I think he’s a good fade candidate the rest of the way. I’ll take the Reds at an underdog price here.

Pick: Reds +113