MLB Best Bets Today August 21:
The Major League Baseball season has about six weeks left and every night has an impact on the playoff races. Tonight will be no different, as all 30 teams take the field and several games have postseason implications in the standings because the Wild Card picture in both leagues is so jumbled.
We had a decent amount of late-inning drama last night, so we’ll see if we get some more this evening.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for August 21:
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-112, 7.5)
7:45 p.m. ET
Yesterday, I was torn between taking the Brewers or the Over, as both Frankie Montas and Erick Fedde had some concerning signs in the profile. I took the Over and chose poorly. Today, I’m looking at this matchup again, but looking at Milwaukee.
The Brewers are rolling right along at present and the Cardinals have dropped seven of eight as a throwaway season continues to slip away. They’re actually fortunate to be in striking distance of the NL Wild Card given their Pythagorean Win-Loss record of 56-69, five games worse than their actual record.
Tobias Myers comes in with a 2.81 ERA and a 4.05 FIP, so there are some concerning signs in his profile, but the Cardinals offense just isn’t producing. They rank 21st in wOBA at .296 against righties in the second half. They haven’t had much in the way of contact quality and only have a 6.8% BB%. This feels like a team that badly needs a shake-up in the offseason and a new focus. They’re playing like it as well.
The Brewers, meanwhile, have won 11 of 14 and have a Pythagorean Win-Loss record that stands up to their actual record. They get another chance here to bury St. Louis another game further behind and rank 11th in wOBA against righties in the second half. Their biggest issue has been striking out because they draw so many walks and get into deep counts, but Kyle Gibson is not a strikeout guy.
Gibson has a 4.26 ERA with a 4.96 xERA and a 4.31 FIP over 131 innings this season. He has a 4.60 ERA in the second half and has allowed 13 runs in 17.2 innings here in August, including five homers.
I’ll just take the better team in an underdog role here.
Pick: Brewers -108
Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 7.5) at Oakland Athletics
9:40 p.m. ET
It will be Ryan Pepiot and Mitch Spence here for the Rays and Athletics after last night’s 1-0 decision. I’m expecting another low-scoring game tonight. Pepiot is making his second start since an IL stint for a spider bite and he was quite good in his return against the Diamondbacks with 5.1 innings and zero earned runs allowed. He gave up a couple of unearned runs in the first inning, but was nails after that.
Pepiot has a 3.69 ERA with a 3.73 FIP and his fly ball style should play just fine here in Oakland. Dating back to pre-spider bite, Pepiot has not allowed a homer in his last six starts. He also has over a strikeout per inning, which should bode well against the Oakland offense. Also, unlike a lot of Rays who enjoy the spoils of Tropicana Field, Pepiot’s home/road splits are not that significant.
Speaking of home/road splits, Spence has been decidedly better in the friendly confines of the Coliseum than he has been on the road. At home, he’s allowed a .314 wOBA and five homers in 60.2 innings. On the road, he’s allowed a .352 wOBA and a 5.63 ERA with 10 homers. He’s at home here and is also facing the worst offense in baseball against righties here in the month of August with a .277 wOBA.
It should be another low-scoring game in a ballpark built for them. The top reliever for both teams are in decent shape as well.
Pick: Rays/Athletics Under 7.5 (-118)
